$S (Sentinel) Charts and X-Post Earnings Thread From Saul's Board (Also Discusses $CRWD)

Good earnings thread on $S. But it’s looking like investors need to curb their enthusiasm at this moment:

Here’s what we have for the last print in the after-market. Up only +.64% on all that news.

$S daily, weekly, and monthly charts

$CRWD daily, weekly, and monthly charts


I don’t see the “curb your enthusiasm” part of this ER or the ER call, which I listened to.

Could price go lower? Sure.
Is valuation already lower than ZS, CRWD, and about every other Saul stock? Yep. Is it growing faster than every other Saul stock? Yep.

Profitability is a concern, but they have been trending in right direction and made a point to call out that they will breakeven in 2024 (their fiscal 2025) in what I thought was a sensible nod to the macro mood.

Finally - related to valuation, they are sub-$4b mkt cap at moment. When you think about their floor strictly as an acquisition target (of MSFT, CSCO, or private equity, etc etc) it is hard to imagine they could be had for lower than that. Pipeline is strong, and they already laid down, a Q in advance, their next FY projects of ARR “conservatively” being no lower than 50% growth. So in a likely down/recession year, they appear to be calling for a sandbag-adjusted 65% type growth at minimum, imo.

I would much rather bet on stock price appreciation from a $4b SentinelOne vs a $25b CRWD, over next 12-24 months.

my 2 cents,


That “curb your enthusiasm” comment has nothing to do with the positive comments from the cc.

I was speaking from a Technical Analytic and the lame after-hours market price close to what I thought would be a good 10+% gap up in the after-hours on earnings.

My chart tells seasoned T/A users in a 3-second glance at that $S is trading, near its 52-Week Low on Nov. 30. That comment on the chart should draw your attention we are to taking out that newly established 52-Week Low. I’m intimating this baby will probably test or set an even newer 52-Week Low.

I post lists of winners on this board, as in 52-Week Highs.

Sometimes I post lists of 52-Week Lows. Here’s one thing I know - as does any regular reader of this board who often opens those 52-Week tables: Tech has more 52-week lows than any other sector now and for the entire year.

With most of Zombie Company & Unicorn Techs bonds rated “junk,” I believe El Erian is correct, that hundreds of companies on the $COMPQ and $IWM won’t be with us by the end of 2024 . . . and that prediction is no good if rates suddenly switch to QE instead of QT.

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S already set a new 52 wk low with the open today, from what I can tell.
Someone snuck in a $12.80 buy.

So it is already nearly 12% above that 52 wk low.


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