Saul Stocks vs. Bitcoin?

I noticed that Bitcoin is about 1/2 it’s previous high. Where is a portfolio of Saul Stocks vs. the 2021 high?



Don’t know, don’t care.

My personal preference does not include investing in either category.

IIRC, Saul gave detailed monthly updates of his portfolio.


BTC has been at the half mark for a while now. The question is when does the next bull market begin for BTC?

I’m going to go out on a limb and predict “it doesn’t.”

Everybody who wants it already has it. Everybody who doesn’t want it won’t get it. The initial hype is over, there have been a couple of catastrophic failures which scare the already faint of heart, and there’s no driving force to accumulate now that nobody believes it’s going to replace historical money.

That doesn’t mean it won’t trade up and down some, at the margins there will be movement - just like stocks - but behind the curtain there’s no “there” there, so it will trade in some undefined range among enthusiasts.



You are in the majority of people.

You and countless billions have been wrong before and will be wrong again about BTC.

Meanwhile either now or by December a small stream will gather…the drops into lakes…those who were never enamored will take the plunge as BTC rises. Those who were never believers will jump in about two years from now as BTC again crests wildly at a top.

I am not touching it at all. Just a study of human behavior.

Leap 1,

If you truly believe BTC and NFTS will run amok, I wonder why you think the stocks will crater?

Despite what the theory of BTC says, it appears to be highly correlated with stock performance…Not completely proportional, but proportional enough…

In other words, BTC has almost never done well when the stocks are significantly down.

Of course, BTC doesnt always go up when stocks do well…but, there are periods of time when BTC has gone parabolic…and during this time, the stocks have done well, although the rate of return in stocks is 'realtively meager" compared to BTC during those brief periods (but not sustained).

Nov to Dec 2017; Oct 202 to Mar 2021; and now Jan 2023 to date…huge returns for BTC during all these times, but the stocks also seem to have done ok during these times…


Maybe after the Binance lawsuit gets resolved…

Sometimes I think this may be overstating the case. Is it really a market at this point? BTC hardly trades much anymore. I don’t include internal trading on exchanges, just actual BTC transfers, a few weeks/months ago, there were some extreme delays due to miners not mining, because apparently BTC can’t change hands without a miner mining.

In the last four year cycle yes but only as a coincidence. In the prior four year cycle not at all. The charts are your friend.

Not important. BTC is important to Binance but Binance is not important to BTC or Eth. The rest is minor stuff that can be here today and gone tomorrow.

Yes the unethical players and there are many are seeing a crackdown. But most of it on the much more ethical players is just proper oversight.

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There’s a reason that Bitcoin lost a thousand dollars in value on the news, though. Part of its valuation is based on the belief that it will be useful and used as more than just a speculative asset. That it might one day be mainstreamed. That it might one day be useful to and used by normies. Firms like Binance and Coinbase are one vector by which that can happen - institutions that can offer “on-ramps” for ordinary people to acquire and start using cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.

Binance getting whacked by the SEC will make it that much less likely that this will happen, in two ways. First, Binance is one of the biggest such ‘on-ramps’ for ordinary people around - losing it (if that indeed happens) just makes it harder for Bitcoin adoption to spread.

Second, and perhaps more important, there’s a lot of interconnection between all the different cryptocurrencies and defi/cefi mechanisms that are out there, and when one fails it can have repercussions across the crypto ecosystem. The Binance token (BNB) dropped 10% on the news, and if the lawsuit goes poorly for Binance it would likely lose a lot more. As one coin collapses in value, players in the crypto space feel less wealthy (driving down the price of BTC) or have to cover their bets to replace that lost value (selling BTC, which drives down the price).

Which again, is why they all dropped in response to the news, even though BTC and ETH are ostensibly substitutes for the BNB and SOL and other coins directly affected by the suit.


In the news and in a kneejerk reaction sure. Along with TA reasons? Along with Eth is going through another upgrade tomorrow.

One day wont make the market bull or bear. The point does not matter. Tomorrow and going forward the SEC is going to exert itself with the justice department. That bodes well for BTC and Eth because it gives them footing as legitimate later on.