On the other hand, you may also want to consider Saul’s 35 year investing record.
Pete
I think the issue for many of us, is that Saul was down 68% in 2008, which means from late 2007-early 2009 he was down more than that.
Most investors, newbie or otherwise, cannot stomach losing 3/4ths of their investable assets or retirement funds. If you have to take 4-5% out every year and that happens to you, you get wiped out.
Saul can, so kudos to him, and he’s crushed it lately with SaaS. But the overwhelming majority of people at TMF certainly can not. Stories like these losses – based on overvaluation – would be helpful to those trying to learn more.
To his credit, he has mentioned how much he lost in that calendar year but doesn’t warn people that their losses going forward, can be that large, that quickly. Doubly so for super-hi-beta stocks. It’s nearly always about how ‘good companies always bounce back, etc.’
He has built a nice nest egg and can withstand a 50-70% loss. How many of his followers can say the same? How many will sell at the worst possible time? One wonders.
Long a few of those SaaS names myself,
Naj
ps FWIW: According to Bernstein Research a 60% stock/40% bond portfolio is a 50-1 shot against to suffer a 50% loss over 30 years. A 100% diversified stock portfolio has a 2.33-1 shot of losing half their assets.