Saul’s portfolio at the end of November 2024.
I’ve said the last time that I’ve abdicated my role in leading the board. Boy, has that part been the truth. I’ve greatly, greatly, reduced the percentage of my portfolio that is in stocks, in investing. And I have to admit that I pay much less attention to my stocks, so please don’t follow what I am doing.
Here’s a table of the monthly year-to-date progress of my portfolio for 2024. I’ll present them as starting from 100% of my starting value and figure from there.
End of Dec 100.0% starting point
End of Jan 101.7%
End of Feb 125.4
End of Mar 127.2
End of Apr 117.4
End of May 121.7
End of Jun 121.7
End of Jul 105.7
End of Aug 110.7
End of Sep 110.6
End of Oct 116.2
End of Nov 124.0
As you can see, November was a good month, and even better than it looked because by the end of the month a large part of the portfolio was in cash and it still managed to grow by almost 7% in November. My actual year to date growth, if I removed the cushioning of all the cash, was probably more like 40% or 45%.
I still have the same six positions I had at the end of October, and I added a seventh, a small position in Amazon.
So here’s what my postions look like now at the end of November :
Since August, I’ve been giving them as clean percentages of my invested stock positions which means that they add up to 100%, but this excludes the cash part of my portfolio which is now by far the most of my portfolio.
Samsara 19.9%
Sentinel 18.6%
Axon 16.2%
Monday 16.1%
Nvidia 12.9%
Amazon 8.6%
Nu 7.7%
I’m at seven positions for now. I’m an old guy and each month I take more and more money out of my investing portfolio and put it into our permanently-out-of-the-market pool . This means I’m constantly investing less and less of our total assets, and if one position gets up to 30% of my portfolio, for instance, it’s a lot fewer dollars than 15% of my portfolio was even six months ago, because I’m investing less. Therefore I worry less, and am more comfortable.
What did I do this last month. Well… Here’s approximately what I did in November ! First of all I raised cash at a MUCH faster rate than I had been in recent years, and reduced my amount in stocks. Why? It’s because lack of clear definition of macro. I don’t have a clue whether the economy will boom in the next year or two or whether it will collapse. Either could happen. So I have sold off a lot of each of my stock positions. I broke down and even sold a bunch of my NU position because I’m afraid that a tariff war will hurt the economy of Mexico, where NU is hoping to find a lot of its growth from here.
I trimmed Axon, which was my largest position until Friday, like everything else during the month, but I sold a lot on Friday after that article posted on the board about how Axon is building a new $1 billion headquarters in Scottsdale:
allowing a 74-acre 400,000-square-foot facility, equipped with retail shops, seven restaurants, two hotels, and nearly 1,900 apartments.
“Trying to get tech people to come to Arizona was just hard. Arizona was not seen as a tech hub. I think that’s changing, and as we plant this flag, we’re really excited,” said Rick Smith, Axon CEO.
I was investing in a tech company, not a real estate developer, and that just seems to me to be taking their eye off the ball.
I have kept a permanent safety fund out of the market that I could live off for several years if necessary, and I feel everyone who does not have a secure regular source of income should do the same. I have gradually added to it over the last several years, moving some funds gradually from my investing pool to my out-of-the-market pool.
FINISHING UP
Let me remind you first, that I have NO IDEA what our stocks will do next month. I’m terrible on predictions. I try to focus on the businesses of our companies.
When I take a regular position in a stock, it’s always with the idea of holding it indefinitely, or as long as circumstances seem appropriate, and never with a price goal or with the idea of trying to make a few points and selling. I do, of course, eventually exit. Sometimes it’s after months, and sometimes after years, but I’m talking about what my intention is when I buy.
You should never try to just follow what I’m doing without making up your own mind about a stock . First of all, you may have a completely different financial picture than I have. Different age, different income, different assets, different debts, different expenses, different financial and family responsibilities, etc.
Besides, in these monthly summaries I’m giving you a static picture of where I am currently, but I may change my mind about a position during the month. In fact, I not infrequently do, and I make changes in the position. I usually don’t announce these changes until the end of the month, and if I’m busy or have some personal emergency I might not announce them even then. And besides, I sometimes make mistakes, even big ones! Don’t just follow me blindly! I’m an old guy and won’t be around forever. The key is to learn how to do this for yourself.
THE KNOWLEDGEBASE
Since I began in 1989, my entire portfolio has grown enormously. If you are new to the board and want to find out how I did it, and how you can try to do it yourself, I’d suggest you read the Knowledgebase , which is a compilation of my “words of wisdom”, and definitely worth reading, (a couple of times), if you haven’t yet. It’s on the panel to your right.
I hope this has been helpful.
Saul