Saul’s Portfolio at the end of 2023.
MY RESULTS MONTH BY MONTH FOR 2023
Here’s a table of the monthly year-to-date progress of my portfolio for 2023. I’ll present them as starting from 100% of my starting value and figure from there. December, like November, was a good month for my portfolio, but most other posters have higher ytd results than I do, so don’t follow me!
End of Dec 100.0% starting point
End of Jan 109.7%
End of Feb 107.0%
End of Mar 105.8%
End of Apr 91.9%
End of May 106.3%
End of Jun 119.0%
End of Jul 127.5%
End of Aug 124.5%
End of Sep 116.5%
End of Oct 101.3%
End of Nov 113.0%
End of Dec 126.7%
MY POSITIONS
Here’s what my postions looked like a month ago (end of Nov).
Samsara 16.7%
Monday 16.1%
ELF 15.8%
Celcius 15.6%
Axon 14.0%
The Trade Desk 10.7%
Nvidia 7.8%
Tesla 1.0%
And here’s what they look like now, at the end of Dec:
Samsara 21.9%
ELF 17.3%
Celsius 15.7%
Monday 14.4%
Axon 14.2%
Tesla 7.0%
Nvidia 6.8%
Zscaler 0.5%
As you can see, of my eight positions at the end of November, they are all still here except Trade Desk, but Samsara is 6% larger, and Tesla, which was just 1% last month, is a lot bigger at 7%, while Zscaler is new at a tiny position, and ELF and Celsius have moved up ahead of Monday.
I exited Trade Desk because I have lost faith in them bouncing back buisness-wise. They are not doing it in the quite strong economy we’ve had this year. They keep gaining market share, but it seems to be market share in a shrinking TAM. Just my opinion which may be all wrong.
I’ve explained my feelings about Samsara at length and I can’t imagine trying to trade in and out of it (but some people try doing it).
I have a huge amount of confidence in Samsara (the company), and a lot of confidence in ELF, Celsius, Monday and Axon.
I see Tesla and Nvidia as more of “sensible” speculations, but speculations none the less, and thus their position sizes are each a half to a third, or less, of my top five positions.
IF YOU ARE WONDERING HOW MY STYLE OF INVESTING DOES LONG TERM
If you are wondering how my style of investing does long term, here are the last seven years starting with 2017, when we started investing in SaaS companies.
**2017 84.2%
**2018 71.4%
**2019 28.4%
**2020 233.3%
**2021 39.6%
**2022 -68.4%
**2023 26.7%
That compounds to 750% of what I started with in seven years, seven and a half times what I started with, even including the horrible 2022. (It would have been 23.7 times, 2,373%, if 2022 hadn’t come along 
).
Okay, let’s look at a longer time frame. How about the last 31 years, going back to 1993 when I started seriously keeping track every week.
(If there is no sign on the yearly results it means that the total portfolio was up that much percent for the year. In other words, 21.4% means up 21.4%.)
**1993: 21.4%
**1994: 15.4%
**1995: 43.4%
**1996: 29.4%
**1997: 17.4%
**1998: 4.9%
**1999: 115.5%
**2000: 19.4%
**2001: 46.9%
**2002: 19.7%
**2003: 124.5%
**2004: 16.7%
**2005: 15.6%
**2006: 8.6%
**2007: 22.5%
**2008: –62.5%
**2009: 110.7%
**2010: 0.3%
**2011: –14.5%
**2012: 23.0%
**2013: 51.0%
**2014: –9.8%
**2015: 16.0%
**2016: 2.5%
**2017 84.2%
**2018 71.4%
**2019 28.4%
**2020 233.3%
**2021 39.6%
**2022 -68.4%
**2023 26.7%
I’ll let you compound it for yourself. Please understand though that I don’t have all that money. I’ve been retired since June of 1996 (for twenty-seven and a half years) and living off my investing for all that time. That means renting and buying houses, food, eating at restaurants, buying cars, airplane rides, clothing, hotels, sending my daughter to college and other schools, medical bills for the whole family, electricity bills, computers, home repairs, the whole works, for twenty-seven and a half years.
What that compounds to is what I would have had if I could have left it all in to compound, but I took out money for our full expenses every year, as well as for emergency money set aside.
Just for example, if that compounds currently to 100 times what I had in 1996 when I retired, that means that every single ten dollars that I took out for our family to live on in 1996 would mean a thousand dollars less I’d have now (100 times), and so on each year.
I have kept a permanent safety fund out of the market that I could live off for several years if necessary, and I feel everyone who does not have a secure regular source of income should do the same. I have gradually added to it over the last year or so, moving some funds gradually from my investing pool to my out-of-the-market pool. Given our advanced ages, my wife and I probably have enough to live for the rest of our lives with our out-of-the-market pool, with a little left over for our children, even if our investment pool went to zero (which is an unlikely scenario). I add a little to our out-of-the-market pool almost every month.
I have learned long ago that sticking with great companies wins out in the end, and beats market timing, but living through the 2021/2022 decline was very difficult.
FINISHING UP
Let me remind you first, that I have NO IDEA what our stocks will do next month. I’m terrible on predictions. But I know that the businesses of our companies will do just fine for the most part.
When I take a regular position in a stock, it’s always with the idea of holding it indefinitely, or as long as circumstances seem appropriate, and never with a price goal or with the idea of trying to make a few points and selling. I do, of course, eventually exit. Sometimes it’s after months, and sometimes after years, but I’m talking about what my intention is when I buy.
I do sometimes take a tiny position in a company to put it on my radar and get me to learn more about it. I’m not trying to trade it and make money on it, I’m just trying to decide if I want to keep it long term. If I later do decide that it’s not what I want, I sell it without hesitation, and I really don’t care whether I gain a dollar or lose one. I just sell out to put the money somewhere better. If I decide to keep it, I add to my position and build it into a regular position.
You should never try to just follow what I’m doing without making up your own mind about a stock . First of all, you may have a completely different financial picture than I have. Different age, different income, different assets, different debts, different expenses, different financial and family responsibilities, etc.
Besides, in these monthly summaries I’m giving you a static picture of where I am currently, but I may change my mind about a position during the month. In fact, I not infrequently do, and I make changes in the position. I usually don’t announce these changes until the end of the month, and if I’m busy or have some personal emergency I might not announce them even then. And besides, I sometimes make mistakes, even big ones! Don’t just follow me blindly! I’m an old guy and won’t be around forever. The key is to learn how to do this for yourself.
THE KNOWLEDGEBASE
Since I began in 1989, my entire portfolio has grown enormously. If you are new to the board and want to find out how I did it, and how you can try to do it yourself, I’d suggest you read the Knowledgebase , which is a compilation of my “words of wisdom”, and definitely worth reading, (a couple of times), if you haven’t yet. It’s on the panel to your right.
I hope this has been helpful.
Saul