Saul's portfolio at the end of Nov 2023

Saul’s Portfolio at the end of Nov, 2023.


Here’s a table of the monthly year-to-date progress of my portfolio for 2023. I’ll present them as starting from 100% of my starting value and figure from there. This has been a much better month than October but most other posters have higher ytd results than I do, so don’t follow me!

End of Dec 100.0% starting point

End of Jan 109.7%

End of Feb 107.0%

End of Mar 105.8%

End of Apr 91.9%

End of May 106.3%

End of Jun 119.0%

End of Jul 127.5%

End of Aug 124.5%

End of Sep 116.5%

End of Oct 101.3%

End of Nov 113.0%


Here’s what my postions looked like a month ago (end of Oct).

Samsara 17.7%

Monday 14.1%

The Trade Desk 13.8%

Global-e 13.3%

Axon 12.9%

ELF 11.0%

Celcius 8.0%

Remitly 4.3%

Tesla 2.7%

And here’s what they look like now, at the end of Nov:

Samsara 16.7%

Monday 16.1%

ELF 15.8%

Celsius 15.6%

Axon 14.0%

The Trade Desk 10.7%

Nvidia 7.8%

Tesla 1.0%

As you can see, of my nine positions at the end of October, two of them which together had taken up 17.6% of my portfolio, Global-e and Remitly, are both gone, and a new 7.8% position in Nvidia has joined the portfolio. I explained my exit from Global, by far the larger position of the two I exited, in a mid-month summary in which I tried to explain my reasoning and feelings at some length, so I won’t go through the explanation again, and it has since bounced back, but for a quick summary, I’d have to say that it was vast disappointment with their quarterly results and the uncertainty about the future that I was feeling.

My other seven positions are still there, and in approximately the same order, except that ELF and Celcius have moved up from 6th and 7th places to a three way tie for 2nd, 3rd and 4th, with Monday.

Trade Desk , which had been in 3rd is now in 6th, as I decreased it from a 13.8% position to an 10.7% position.

Why did I decrease the size of my TTD position? Well… a week ago when I was looking, its PE was 55, as high as Nvidia’s. Its EV/S was at 17.2, roughly tied for 2nd highest behind Nvidia which was highest. So we can assume that it must have had one of the highest growth rates, right? … No, wrong. Revenue growth rates of my top seven companies last quarter ranged from 25% to 206%. Guess who came in last, at 25%. It was Trade Desk! It was thus given a very high stock value, with a very low growth rate, so I decided to decrease my position. Simple as that.

Why did I increase the size of my Celcius? First of all, I liked the story. Second, its PE was 24.5, less than half the PE’s of Axon, Trade Desk, and Nvidia, and a quarter of Monday’s. To go with that low PE it had a revenue growth rate of 104%, four times that of Trade Desk, and a much more reasonable EV/S, at 11.0. It actually seemed like one of the best bets in my portfolio.

And how about ELF ? I really liked their story too. Besides, it had a revenue growth rate of 76%, a PE of 40, and an EV/S ratio of only 8. (Compare that with Trade Desk’s at 17, with the slowest revenue growth rate of all).

I also took a position in Nvidia for reasons that have been well discussed on the board, and include a relative dominance in an exploding field, a revenue growth rate of 206%. Revenue was up an amazing 34% sequentially on top of the previous quarter being up 88% sequentially, and Nvidia had a PE based on the EPS run-rate of just 30 (using four times the most recent quarter EPS).

I reduced the number of shares by smallish amounts in my largest and 2nd largest positions because Samsara hadn’t yet broken into making a profit, and Monday, although growing profitability very rapidly, still sported a very high PE.

I also reduced my Tesla position from 2.7% to 1.0%, still in last place.

I have kept a permanent safety fund out of the market that I could live off for several years if necessary, and I feel everyone who does not have a secure regular source of income should do the same. I have gradually added to it over the last year or so, moving some funds gradually from my investing pool to my out-of-the-market pool. Given our advanced ages, my wife and I probably have enough to live for the rest of our lives with our out-of-the-market pool, with a little left over for our children, even if our investment pool went to zero (which is an unlikely scenario). I added a little to our out-of-the-market pool this month.

I have learned long ago that sticking with great companies wins out in the end, and beats market timing, but living through the 2021/2022 decline was very difficult.


Let me remind you first, that I have NO IDEA what our stocks will do next month. I’m terrible on predictions. But I know that the businesses of our companies will do just fine for the most part.

When I take a regular position in a stock, it’s always with the idea of holding it indefinitely, or as long as circumstances seem appropriate, and never with a price goal or with the idea of trying to make a few points and selling. I do, of course, eventually exit. Sometimes it’s after months, and sometimes after years, but I’m talking about what my intention is when I buy.

I do sometimes take a tiny position in a company to put it on my radar and get me to learn more about it. I’m not trying to trade it and make money on it, I’m just trying to decide if I want to keep it long term. If I later do decide that it’s not what I want, I sell it without hesitation, and I really don’t care whether I gain a dollar or lose one. I just sell out to put the money somewhere better. If I decide to keep it, I add to my position and build it into a regular position.

You should never try to just follow what I’m doing without making up your own mind about a stock . First of all, you may have a completely different financial picture than I have. Different age, different income, different assets, different debts, different expenses, different financial and family responsibilities, etc.

Besides, in these monthly summaries I’m giving you a static picture of where I am currently, but I may change my mind about a position during the month. In fact, I not infrequently do, and I make changes in the position. I usually don’t announce these changes until the end of the month, and if I’m busy or have some personal emergency I might not announce them even then. And besides, I sometimes make mistakes, even big ones! Don’t just follow me blindly! I’m an old guy and won’t be around forever. The key is to learn how to do this for yourself.


Since I began in 1989, my entire portfolio has grown enormously. If you are new to the board and want to find out how I did it, and how you can try to do it yourself, I’d suggest you read the Knowledgebase , which is a compilation of my “words of wisdom”, and definitely worth reading (a couple of times) if you haven’t yet. It’s on the panel to your right.

I hope this has been helpful.



IOT (Samsara), my largest position, reported after the close. It beat all its estimates and signed up the City of New Orleans for 41 departments. It also got named as Frost and Sullivan’s “Company of the Year”. It’s up 11% in the aftermarket.


Hi Saul,

Not sure where you are looking at CELH P/E being 24.5x… their P/E is ~101x (trailing). I see '24 EPS estimates are $0.99c, so the forward P/E is ~50x. I think CELH is a bargain right now and likely to beat '24 estimates, but it definitely has a higher P/E than 24.5x



Hi bnh, I got my EPS from the company’s own website. (Where did you get yours?) They give only GAAP besides, which is usually less than adjusted. Last quarter they reported 89 cents, the quarter before 52 cents, the quarter before that 40 cents. That’s already $1.81 in three quarters.

In the third quarter of 2022 they established their distribution with Pepsi and had to buy out the rest of their distribution agreements with others (with some financial help from Pepsi. Under Gaap they had to take this as S&M expense and they showed a huge loss.

Third quarter 2022 financial results were negatively impacted by a $155.4 million expense in Sales and Marketing related to a termination expense of prior distributors recognized

A little was left over into the 4th Q of 2022, so they showed a 37 cent loss.

Fourth quarter 2022 financial results were negatively impacted by a $37.6 million expense in Sales and Marketing related to a termination expense of prior distributors recognized

Okay, for trailing earnings we have the trailing 3 quarters with $1.81 in Gaap EPS, and in the trailing 4th quarter back they showed a nominal 37 cent loss. Backing it out they had a profit for the quarter of course.

So here was the picture in the 4th quarter back, business wise. Their business was in temporary turmoil. They had terminated all of their distribution agreements and were in the process of setting everything up with Pepsi. So who knows where they were selling anything?

So to figure something reasonable to figure a hypothetical trailing EPS, we have $1.81 for the last three quarters and I’ll give them 30 cents for that last quarter (4th Q of 2022), for which their business was in a turmoil of switching which is no longer relevant.

That would be $2.11 trailing. Their close yesterday was $49.51. That gives them a trailing PE of 23.5.

Where in the world did you get a PE of 101 ?

And you are estimating 99 cents for all of next year when they reported 89 cents this last quarter ???




Saul they had a 3 for 1 split.



Thank you Andy, that explains it. So that $2.11 should go into $49.5 x 3 = 148.5 and give a PE of 70.4. MY ERROR !
I apologize to bnh.


Yes, the split is the major factor here :sweat_smile:. I was including the 4 Q loss you described even though I understand the 1 time distribution costs unjustly skew it.

Another thing is I am using the fully diluted EPS. Pepsi has 8.5% preferred shares from the distribution deal that probably aren’t in the regular share count getting me to ~100x trailing P/E. I understand that this is going to fall fast with the growth in the coming Quarters. $0.99c is the analyst estimate for 2024, not my estimate. I said I believe it will be beat & these analysts will have to start raising it. The high EPS estimate for '24 is $1.39 which is much more realistic.



What a difference a day makes. Today my largest position was up 25.6%, two others of my top four were up 5.0% and 3.7% and my portfolio moved from up 13.0% to up 19.4%. Holy mackerel !!!



I was hoping you could expand on your reasoning for exiting Remitly. I own it as a 4.5% position but have been wondering about it.

→ Revenue came in at $242m, growing 3% sequentially and 43% yoy
→ Customers were up 42% which is really good
→ Send volume was up 36% and take-rate and ARPU remained stable at around 2.4% and just under $45
→ I think that remittances should be relatively resistant to recessionary forces and they are taking market share
→ They are still less that 2% market share in a huge TAM
→ They issued a strong guide which would imply a yoy growth rate for the year of well above 40%

The things that niggle at me are the profitability metrics: EBITDA margin of only 4% and net loss margin of -15% as well as the low sequential growth rate of just 3%.

In the end I chose to keep the position for now, based on their strong customer growth, the comments by management about Q4 being a seasonally very strong quarter and that they are continuing to invest in the opportunity based on their very favourable LTV/CAC metrics.

Would like to understand your thinking and why you exited.



I agree with all of those.

I didn’t see anything really bad that made me run for the exits. I just felt I had better places for my money, with less uncertainty.


Hi Saul,

Since you noted the low PE in the reasons above that you liked Celsius, did the fact that it’s actually pretty high change your conviction enough to make it a smaller position?

If not the PE, what about the price action lately? Since hitting high 60’s (equivalent before split) in September, CELH has been trending down the last few months. I know you’re not a slave to market sentiment and price action, but I’m curious how you think about it?

For me, I see a lot to be impressed about with Celsius…mainly the growth they’ve had and seem to still be having. But I also worry that it’s just sugar water (more precisely Sucralose-water) and that the Pepsi distribution bump will soon run its course and that the “cool factor” may run out and that the customers who think it’s actually healthy will run out. Maybe “run out” is too strong a phrase…but maybe there will be fewer new customers to add after distribution is built out and likely plateaus a bit.

I also saw that there’s a lot of short interest. That could mean opportunity – maybe there will be a short squeeze. But the shorts could be right. I never know how to evaluate things like that, but I’ve seen battleground stocks in the past where it seems to be a problem.

Just curious on your updated thoughts on Celsius…maybe nothing has changed for you, but as you always say, sometimes you do change your mind!



Hi Bear,

Not Saul but this report goes into several good points why CELH should continue to provide good returns for shareholders over the next few years. It is worth the read for CELH holders.

A summary of the investment thesis if anybody doesn’t want to open the article (direct quote):

"1. Based on latest scanner data, Celsius holds a roughly 6% share of the U.S. energy market over the last twelve months, making it #3 behind Monster and Red Bull. We believe Celsius can continue to grow and become a significantly larger business for several key reasons…

a. Celsius holds a 20%+ share on Amazon and major Florida markets (Miami, Orlando, and Tampa), its most mature markets, and nearly 20% share in New York and Boston. These analogues provide solid evidence that Celsius is capable of being significantly larger than it is today.

b. Despite industry-leading velocity growth, Celsius’ shelf space allocation to date has meaningfully lagged Monster and Red Bull.

c. Celsius grows the category. The brand attracts new users and does not solely rely on stealing share to grow.

d. Celsius is early in its international expansion journey.

  1. Analysts mismodeling inherent operating leverage in the business

a. Despite strong projected revenue growth, the estimated flow-through of that revenue is nonsensical, given the people and capital-lite nature of Celsius’ operating model. "

As to the short term price action. Who knows :man_shrugging: . The CEO just sold 38% of his shares last week and there was another director who sold 44% of their shares. Probably spooking some people in a time where there is not news besides a slow grind down in the stock.



On top of that, please keep in mind, that by far the biggest shareholder Carl DeSantis passed this summer. He had a 31% stake in CELH and there is probably some liquidation happening, to be able to pay off any inheritance taxes.

This has been discussed as a headwind in this great video about CELH:




I still have a 14.7% position in Celsius. Not as big as my positions in ELF or Samsara, but big.