Saul’s portfolio at the end of July 2024.
I don’t know why some typing came out huge and bold (like this) and I don’t know how to correct it.
Here’s a table of the monthly year-to-date progress of my portfolio for 2024. I’ll present them as starting from 100% of my starting value and figure from there.
End of Dec 100.0% starting point
End of Jan 101.7%
End of Feb 125.4
End of Mar 127.2
End of Apr 117.4
End of May 121.7
End of Jun 121.7
End of Jul 105.7
Saying last month that there wasn’t a lot of change in the previous four months, since the end of February, must must have jinxed myself because July was disastrous as my portfolio fell 13%. i While my currently 2nd largest position, Axon, was up, ELF, Nu, and Nvidia were down, and SMCI was down a huge 27%, on no bad news that I know about except that they want to sell some stock so the brokerage firms that will get the stock are selling short to push down the price at which they will buy the new shares. Happens regularly.
Even Transmedics was down a few percent from where I bought it, a little position in Tesla that I took again was down 10% or so when I got out, it’s down a bunch more since. I exited Celsius because of the uncertainty.
What really killed me though was my substantial position in Crowdstrike which was down about 33% when I got out. Yes, it’s down another 14% from there. That was really a Black Swan event. I bought a small position in Sentinel to replace part of it, and I sold out of my little positions in NXT, Samsara, and Monday.
Here’s what my postions looked like a month ago (end of June):
ELF 20.0%
Axon 17.6%
Nvidia 15.4%
Celsius 10.8%
Crowdstrike 9.3%
Nu 5.9%
SuperMicro 4.9%
Transmedics 4.5%
Nextracker 4.0%
Monday 0.8%
Samsara 0.6%
And here’s what they look like now, at the ‘end’ of July:
I’m down to seven positions, and am comfortable with that for now.
ELF 21.5%
Axon 20.9%
Nvidia 16.5%
Nu 10.2%
SuperMicro 9.9%
Sentinel 6.0%
Transmedics 4.5%
I have kept a permanent safety fund out of the market that I could live off for several years if necessary, and I feel everyone who does not have a secure regular source of income should do the same. I have gradually added to it over the last sevaral years, moving some funds gradually from my investing pool to my out-of-the-market pool. Given our advanced ages, my wife and I probably have enough to live for the rest of our lives with our out-of-the-market pool, with a little left over for our children. I add a little to our out-of-the-market pool almost every month.
I have learned long ago that sticking with great companies wins out in the end, and beats market timing, even though living through the 2021/2022 decline was very difficult.
FINISHING UP
Let me remind you first, that I have NO IDEA what our stocks will do next month. I’m terrible on predictions. But I know that the businesses of our companies will do just fine for the most part.
When I take a regular position in a stock, it’s always with the idea of holding it indefinitely, or as long as circumstances seem appropriate, and never with a price goal or with the idea of trying to make a few points and selling. I do, of course, eventually exit. Sometimes it’s after months, and sometimes after years, but I’m talking about what my intention is when I buy.
I do sometimes take a tiny position in a company to put it on my radar and get me to learn more about it. I’m not trying to trade it and make money on it, I’m just trying to decide if I want to keep it long term. If I later do decide that it’s not what I want, I sell it without hesitation, and I really don’t care whether I gain a dollar or lose one. I just sell out to put the money somewhere better. If I decide to keep it, I add to my position and build it into a regular position.
You should never try to just follow what I’m doing without making up your own mind about a stock . First of all, you may have a completely different financial picture than I have. Different age, different income, different assets, different debts, different expenses, different financial and family responsibilities, etc.
Besides, in these monthly summaries I’m giving you a static picture of where I am currently, but I may change my mind about a position during the month. In fact, I not infrequently do, and I make changes in the position. I usually don’t announce these changes until the end of the month, and if I’m busy or have some personal emergency I might not announce them even then. And besides, I sometimes make mistakes, even big ones! Don’t just follow me blindly! I’m an old guy and won’t be around forever. The key is to learn how to do this for yourself.
THE KNOWLEDGEBASE
Since I began in 1989, my entire portfolio has grown enormously. If you are new to the board and want to find out how I did it, and how you can try to do it yourself, I’d suggest you read the Knowledgebase , which is a compilation of my “words of wisdom”, and definitely worth reading, (a couple of times), if you haven’t yet. It’s on the panel to your right.
I hope this has been helpful.
Saul