Saul's Portfolio at the end of March

Saul’s Portfolio at the end of March 2024.

I’m recovered enough from my trauma and my surgeries to give a brief end of the month portfolio. It will be very brief though, both because I’ve been mentally in a bit of a fog, and because I made almost no changes during the month.


Here’s a table of the monthly year-to-date progress of my portfolio for 2024. I’ll present them as starting from 100% of my starting value and figure from there.

After the huge February gains, March was a calmer month . In addition, partly because of medical issues, I again made almost no changes in my portfolio. My write-up will be brief this month for the same reason.

End of Dec 100.0% starting point

End of Jan 101.7%

End of Feb 125.4

End of Mar 127.2


Here’s what my postions looked like a month ago (end of Feb)

ELF 21.5%

Celsius 17.6%

Monday 16.3%

Axon 15.6%

Samsara 14.6%

Crowdstrike 5.6%

Nu Holdings 3.8%

Nvidia 2.3%

Beam 0.7%

And here’s what they look like now, at the end of March:

ELF 20.1%

Celsius 17.7%

Monday 16.2%

Axon 15.6%

Samsara 15.6%

Crowdstrike 5.5%

Nu Holdings 3.7%

Beam 0.7%

As you can see, of my nine positions at the end of February, eight are all still there in the same order, with the only change being that I sold out of my small Nvidia position, because I realized that I didn’t have a clue about what they actually do, what people were talking about when they discussed Nvidia, and how long it would last.

My confidence in Samsara was largely restored by their results this month.

I wrote at the end of January that I was worried that Celsius was too dependent on Pepsi for expansion, and that expanding into Canada wasn’t much of a big deal population-wise.

But then we learned that they weren’t restricted to Pepsi: Celsius elected Suntory Beverage & Food of Great Britain and Ireland as its exclusive sales and distribution partner in Great Britain, Northern Ireland, and theRepublic of Ireland. Sales of Celsius products in those regions will begin this year. Not only was that good news but it foretold well for future expansion into other countries using more local distributors instead of being locked into Pepsi for everything.

This month they just announced expansion into Australia and New Zealand, again using a local manufacturer and distributer.

I thought that the following news also held back their stock price:

“Carl DeSantis*—the billionaire who made a fortune founding and selling the Rexall Sundown vitamin company and, more lucratively, backing the Celsius energy drink brand—died last Thursday. He was 84 years old – Aug 18, 2023”*

I suspected that his estate and heirs had been selling off some of his holdings, so I took a look:

On Jan 23, 2024, Deborah DeSantis, Dean DeSantis, and William Milmore EACH sold 318,451 shares for $17.3 million each (roughly $52 million total).

On Jan 26, three days later, Deborah DeSantis, Dean DeSantis, and William Milmore EACH sold 384,594 shares for roughly $20.4 million each (roughly $61 million total).

So over a three day span they sold, combined, over 2.1 million shares. With that kind of large**, but basically irrelevant, selling** supressing the stock price, I had to feel that that was an excellent time to accumulate stock and increase my position, which I did, raising my position size by 2 percentage points by the end of January.

In Feb they were up to second place with a 17.6% position, partly because I added to it and partly because they just jumped over 20% after announcing results. They are still in a strong second place this month at a 17.7% position.

I don’t have much else to write about this month as I have made almost no changes in my portfolio.


If you are wondering how my style of investing does long term, here are the last seven years starting with 2017, when we started investing in SaaS companies.

**2017 84.2%

**2018 71.4%

**2019 28.4%

**2020 233.3%

**2021 39.6%

**2022 -68.4%

**2023 26.7%

And first three months of 2024 +27.2%

That compounds to 953.5% of what I started with in seven years and three months, more than nine and a half times what I started with, even including the horrible 2022 sell off !!! It’s important to remember that last clause, for people who want to sell out every time their stock goes up and they worry it’s overvalued. More than nine and a half times what I started with seven years ago, in spite of that horrible sell-off. That sure beats trying to time the market.

Okay, let’s look at a longer time frame. How about the last 31 years, going back to 1993 when I started seriously keeping track every week. If there is no sign on the yearly results it means that the total portfolio was up that much percent for the year. In other words, 21.4% means up 21.4% and 115.5% means up 115% (more than doubling, not up 15.5%).

**1993: 21.4%

**1994: 15.4%

**1995: 43.4%

**1996: 29.4%

**1997: 17.4%

**1998: 4.9%

**1999: 115.5%

**2000: 19.4%

**2001: 46.9%

**2002: 19.7%

**2003: 124.5%

**2004: 16.7%

**2005: 15.6%

**2006: 8.6%

**2007: 22.5%

**2008: –62.5%

**2009: 110.7%

**2010: 0.3%

**2011: –14.5%

**2012: 23.0%

**2013: 51.0%

**2014: –9.8%

**2015: 16.0%

**2016: 2.5%

**2017 84.2%

**2018 71.4%

**2019 28.4%

**2020 233.3%

**2021 39.6%

**2022 -68.4%

**2023 26.7%

I’ll let you compound it for yourself. Please understand though that I don’t have all that money. I’ve been retired since June of 1996 (for almost twenty-eight years) and my family has been living off my investing for all that time. That means renting and buying houses, all the family food, eating at restaurants, buying cars, taking airplane trips, and there was clothing, furniture, hotels, sending my daughter to college and other schools, medical bills, electricity bills, computers, home repairs, just plain daily expenses, the whole works, for twenty-seven and a half years.

What those numbers compound to is what I would have had if I could have left it all in to compound, but I took out money for our full expenses every year, as well as for emergency money set aside. Just for example, if that compounds currently to 100 times what I started with in 1996 when I retired, every single ten dollars that I took out for our family to live on in 1996 would mean a thousand dollars less I’d have now (100 times), and so on each year.

I have kept a permanent safety fund out of the market that I could live off for several years if necessary, and I feel everyone who does not have a secure regular source of income should do the same. I have gradually added to it over the last sevaral years, moving some funds gradually from my investing pool to my out-of-the-market pool. Given our advanced ages, my wife and I probably have enough to live for the rest of our lives with our out-of-the-market pool, with a little left over for our children. I add a little to our out-of-the-market pool almost every month.

I have learned long ago that sticking with great companies wins out in the end, and beats market timing, but living through the 2021/2022 decline was very difficult.


Let me remind you first, that I have NO IDEA what our stocks will do next month. I’m terrible on predictions. But I know that the businesses of our companies will do just fine for the most part.

When I take a regular position in a stock, it’s always with the idea of holding it indefinitely, or as long as circumstances seem appropriate, and never with a price goal or with the idea of trying to make a few points and selling. I do, of course, eventually exit. Sometimes it’s after months, and sometimes after years, but I’m talking about what my intention is when I buy.

I do sometimes take a tiny position in a company to put it on my radar and get me to learn more about it. I’m not trying to trade it and make money on it, I’m just trying to decide if I want to keep it long term. If I later do decide that it’s not what I want, I sell it without hesitation, and I really don’t care whether I gain a dollar or lose one. I just sell out to put the money somewhere better. If I decide to keep it, I add to my position and build it into a regular position.

You should never try to just follow what I’m doing without making up your own mind about a stock . First of all, you may have a completely different financial picture than I have. Different age, different income, different assets, different debts, different expenses, different financial and family responsibilities, etc.

Besides, in these monthly summaries I’m giving you a static picture of where I am currently, but I may change my mind about a position during the month. In fact, I not infrequently do, and I make changes in the position. I usually don’t announce these changes until the end of the month, and if I’m busy or have some personal emergency I might not announce them even then. And besides, I sometimes make mistakes, even big ones! Don’t just follow me blindly! I’m an old guy and won’t be around forever. The key is to learn how to do this for yourself.


Since I began in 1989, my entire portfolio has grown enormously. If you are new to the board and want to find out how I did it, and how you can try to do it yourself, I’d suggest you read the Knowledgebase , which is a compilation of my “words of wisdom”, and definitely worth reading, (a couple of times), if you haven’t yet. It’s on the panel to your right.

I hope this has been helpful.



Good to see, that you are getting better and I wish you a speedy recovery!



I too wish you a speedy recovery.

I notice that you sold your small NVIDIA position in the month. I did the same. Curious as to your reasoning.



Since Saul probably doesn’t feel like typing I’ll point out his answer from his post:



Godspeed to you, Saul, prayers for your recovery!


Nvidia in a nutshell:
The company currently makes the vast majority of its money from the sale of specialized chips that power servers running AI software. They also sell:
• advanced networking components for that AI usage.
• chips and boards for high quality graphics rendering, mostly in laptops and PCs.
• chips and software for industrial digitalization
• chips and software for autonomous driving

In their main profit center, competition comes from AMD and Intel, both of which announced new products late last year, with AMD claiming they (barely) beat Nvidia’s performance, but which Nvidia disputed with its own benchmarks. More importantly, Nvidia just recently (last 2 weeks) announced new products shipping this year that beat everyone handily and yet are priced the same as the previous generation.

As to how long this will last:
• New chip development takes at least 2 years, which gives Nvidia a solid advantage for that amount of time, and the one-up game is unlikely to flip even then as Nvidia is unlikely to stop upping their performance even as AMD (and to a lesser extent, Intel) try to catch up.
• A few large companies with large resources (Google, Microsoft, Tesla, Meta) have announced internal initiatives to develop their own AI chips. Yet the CEOs of all those companies (for Google, just DeepMind) were quoted in Nvidia’s press release on its new chips. Google and Tesla are the furthest along, yet Tesla is perhaps surprisingly still spending billions on Nvidia chips, despite their several years long effort that included hiring industry luminaries.
• Nvidia has a moat in its CUDA software, which both simplifies AI programming of Nvidia chips as well as optimizes those programs. While there are some Open Source alternatives for AI programming, the most successful of those (such as PyTorch) make calls to CUDA under the covers. Ones that don’t simply don’t perform as well.
• As for the longetivity of the AI market itself, McKinsey has a free in-depth report on their expectations here:

Some quotes:

The era of generative AI is just beginning.

Our latest research estimates that generative AI could add the equivalent of $2.6 trillion to $4.4 trillion annually…This estimate would roughly double if we include the impact of embedding generative AI into software that is currently used for other tasks…

Nvidia’s CEO, Jensen Huang, is not resting on any laurels. He is aggresively expanding Nvidia into new markets, including software (SaaS), and AI cloud computing, and also AI programming training. The software and cloud offerings will provide recurring revenue. Huang has also talked extensively about “Sovereign AI,” which are countries setting up and running their own AI servers to better govern their populations. It’s not just businesses that run better with AI.

As for the “cyclical nature” of semiconductor stocks, I tend to agree with this article that argues the current situation is quite different than the past:

In terms of future growth, much has been made here of Nvidia’s current large size. Let’s look at some numbers:

Revenue Growth:
YoY Annual: 126%
YoY Quarterly: 265%
Guidance for next quarter: 234% YoY

Gross Profit Growth:
YoY Annual: 188%
YoY Quarterly: 338%

Net Profit Margin:
Fiscal Year just ended: 49%
Last Quarter: 56%, up 138% YoY

Forward PE: 38% (but I think Wall Street’s projected earnings are low, and company has beat their own guidance and WS estimates 4 quarters in a row.

Will this growth continue beyond 2024? Almost certainly not at this level, even with expansion into additional markets, as company performance most of last year makes comps harder moving forward. The only reason the company isn’t growing faster right now is that they can’t get enough chips made.

But, yeah, I can’t argue that NVDA is going to provide a 10X or even a 5X return in the foreseeable future, but I do think a double from here is certainly possible, if not more likely than for most of the stocks being discussed here. Short term, I’m more worried that ELF’s young retail customers will turn out to be more fickle than the large businesses investing in AI today. (Although I do like ELF and appreciated the throw-away mention in the latest “Mean Girls” movie).


Also, they are adding more SaaS revenues to their model with their “AI Enterprise” offering, for which they charge $4500/year/GPU.

AI Enterprise includes access to a proprietary API called Nvidia Inference MIcroservices (“NIM”), which serves a dual purpose:

  1. Making life easier for Developers
  2. Adding another software layer (…in addition to CUDA) that (IMO) is intended to hard-couple organizations to $NVDA for years-to-come

See the MCs of the biggest S&P500 companies on each 1/1/xxxx:

  • In 1994 - Exxon Mobil with 78,4B.
  • In 2004 - Microsoft with 295,29B.
  • In 2014 - Apple with 500,74B.
  • In 2024 - Apple with 2,994,00B.

That’s nearly 40x increase in market cap over the last 30yrs. I’m sure, that each decade there was similar noise, that the market caps can’t appreciate more and that eventually the law of large numbers will come into play.

But even so, each decade the market caps roughly 4x’ed. History is teaching us, that industrial revolutions will lead to more productivity, more revenues, higher EPS, higher stock prices and therefore bigger market caps.

I think personally, that $NVDA is positioning itself as the new market leader in the new industrial revolution and that there is a big possibility that it will lead the pack in a couple of years with a market cap, never imagined in 2024.

No investing advice.