I've heard the Gardner brothers talk about how their portfolios would have better
returns if they never sold a position, they talk about 5 year hold periods, etc.
This made me wonder what Saul's portfolio would look like if he had a similar
approach. i.e. Does his trading add to or subtract from his returns. So I looked
at this for calendar 2018 (yeah, it's just 1 year, but I have a life!) I compared
Saul's 12/31/17 port from his post, using the then actual allocations, to the value
those same stocks would have yielded if still held in the same proportions at 12/31/18
(see below). The result? An impressive 34.5% return vs the S&P's (6.6%). But that
pales in comparison to his actual return for 2018 of 71.4%! Considering many of the
2017 names are still held by Saul and others here and that none of these companies blew
themselves up, this is quite impressive for sure!
I hope this is not too off topic thus posting on a weekend. I've been following this
board since May '18 and to me this really validates the concentrated portfolio/highest
conviction approach followed here. So what am I doing? I've reduced my portfolio from
59 stocks in May to 30 as I write this, although 7 of them are pretty small holdings so
it's more like 23. I'll probably knock a few more off before I settle in on a long term
number I'm comfortable with. The hard part is having the conviction necessary to have
10+% positions and I'm not yet sure how I'd feel holding many smaller cap companies if
a bigger bear hits (though I held up just fine during the recent 20% drop). So, big
thanks to all that contribute here!!
LGM
2017 Value Price Shares Price Value Dividends
Alloc. 12/17 12/17 12/17 12/18 12/18 2018
Shopify 14.7% 147.00 101.00 1.46 138.45 $201.51
Arista 12.6% 126.00 235.58 0.53 210.70 $112.69
Hubspot 12.2% 122.00 88.40 1.38 125.73 $173.52
Alteryx 12.1% 121.00 25.27 4.79 59.47 $284.76
Nutanix 11.9% 119.00 35.28 3.37 41.59 $140.28
Square 10.1% 101.00 34.67 2.91 56.09 $163.40
Talend 6.9% 69.00 37.47 1.84 37.08 $68.28
LGI 5.5% 55.00 15.12 3.64 13.53 $49.22 $9.87
Wix 4.9% 49.00 57.55 0.85 90.34 $76.92
Nvidia 4.8% 48.00 192.96 0.25 133.50 $33.21 $0.15
Nektar 2.6% 26.00 59.72 0.44 32.87 $14.31
Cash 1.7% 17.00 1.00 17.00 1.00 $17.00 $0.34
Total 100.0% $1,000 $1,335.10 $10.36
Dividends $10.36
Grand Total $1,345.46
Return - Buy and hold 34.5%
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