No wonder ‘higher and longer’ has been abandoned when it comes to interest rates:
More than $100 billion in commercial real estate loans on US office buildings will mature over 2024, presenting owners with a formidable refinancing challenge. With interest rates significantly higher compared to when most of these loans originated in the last decade, billions in losses appear inevitable amid depressed property valuations.
I hope we all realize that $100 billion is minuscule in the world of debt in the USA. I mean, the treasury does more than that every Tuesday and Thursday (not combined, each day!) Much of that $100B will be restructured such that the current equity holders lose all, the existing debt holders lose a bunch, and the new debt holders will own the asset. But the number itself shouldn’t be so scary.