Unfortunately, the same could’ve been said with DDD. I bought at $20 and rode it all the way up to $100. Sold some at 85 (pat on the back), but only some.
Then back down again to $10. What a fun ride!
But we’re not ‘day-traders’. What we’re concerned with is the worth of the company. Does it generate value?
We’ve probably done this to death already but I’ll take one more crack at it.
The key is deferred revenue.
Monthly Recurring Revenue is at 18million, up from 11million the previous year. We already know gross profit margin has been in the 50s
Gross Profit Margin
Total for year
2015 58.98% 56.57% 55.68% 51.99% 55.21%
2016 55.16% 54.85% 54.07% 52.22% 53.83%
The loss is from operating expenses.
Shopify have indicated the G&A may or may not decrease, but R&D and Sales & Marketing will decrease as a total % of revenue.
Over time, we expect sales and marketing expenses will decline as a percentage of total revenues
‘Over time’. So yes, it’s undefined.
Another key factor is their monthly billing retention rate (MBRR). It’s sort of similar to merchant retention rate. But some shops will fold and close naturally. So to paint a rosier and arguably clearer picture, the MBRR is the amount of ‘billings’ per customer shopify gives out. So even though some clients leave shopify, do the ones that stay increase their spending to offset these leavers? The answer is yes. The MBRR has been over 100% for the last two years.
As long as they keep aggressively growing the MRR and maintain a high MBRR, SHOPIFY’s growth is healthy! The path to profitability is clear. If MRR starts to slow, be concerned!
However, here’s what’s not clear. What is their TAM and are they overvalued? Is their massive growth already built in?
Is their SBC amounts harmful to investor value or an absolutely essential part of their strategy to completely own the market?
NB. I like how SHOPIFY’s subscriptions are mostly 1-month long. It’s easy to follow. They only have 20million of deferred revenue (liability) on their balance sheet. Compare this to Talend and their subscriptions being 1.5 years long. They’re trying to get that down to 1.25 this year. But they have 81 million of deferred revenue on their balance sheet and it’s rising. It’s harder to follow exactly when they can ‘realise’ this money. In the meantime, they have the cash but owe and pay for a service to their clients for a long time.