Sector winner/looser patterns

Something I took a look at since I like
looking at sector rotation. 
Like the big rotation from tech to energy recently.

Not sure anything
outstanding here, but thought I'd share it.
(i.e., don't bet the farm on this...)

I made a matrix of the 11 sectors and looked at
their one month relative ranking return back to Jan 2022-
28 monthly periods.

I then looked at the top three (labeled "B" for best) and
the bottom three (labeled "W" for worst).

It was a pretty big matrix that would not fit on this
post. So I only put the two that that had the most
Best and Worst months. And a summary at the bottom.
And there sure was no pattern that was easily 
discernable for most of the sectors (e.g., did B follow a W or vice versa, etc.)

Maybe with one exception...
The most interesting one, though was Energy.
In the last 28 months, that sector was either
in the top three or the bottom three of one month returns.
If XLE was in the top/bottom one month, it was pretty likely
to do the same next month. All others seemed pretty random.

Interesting, to note, that when XLU was in the top, XLE was in the bottom
and vice-versa..

    Utilities   Energy    
     (XLU)    (XLE)
		
Jan-20	B	W		
Feb-20		W		
Mar-20		W		
Apr-20	W	B		
May-20		W		
Jun-20	W	W		
Jul-20	B	W		
Aug-20	W	W		
Sep-20	B	W		
Oct-20	B	W		
Nov-20	W	B		
Dec-20	W	B		
Jan-21		B		
Feb-21	W	B		
Mar-21	B	W		
Apr-21		W		
May-21	W	B		
Jun-21		B		
Jul-21	B	W		
Aug-21	B	W		
Sep-21		B		
Oct-21	W	B		
Nov-21		W		
Dec-21	B	W		
Jan-22		B		
Feb-22		B		
Mar-22	B	B		
Apr-22		B		

WORST	6	9 first 14 months	
BEST	4	5 first 14 months	
WORST	2	6 recent 14 months	
BEST	5	8 recent 14 months	

  Utilities   Energy    
     (XLU).     (XLE)	
WORST	8	15	
BEST	9	13

Another summary-
All the sectors with occurrences over the last 28 months-

Note also that Discretionary (XLY) had the very high number
of Bests and low Worsts!
	             WORST	BEST	total	
Energy        (XLE)	15	13	28	months
Utilities     (XLU)	8	9	17	
Technology    (XLK)	7	9	16	
Financial     (XLF)	7	8	15	
Communications(XLC)	8	7	15	
Staples       (XLP)	9	5	14	
**Discretionary (XLY)	4	10**	14	
Real Estate  (XLRE)	8	6	14	
Industrial    (XLI)	9	4	13	
Materials     (XLB)	4	8	12	
Health        (XLV)	5	5	10
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tpoto,

re: https://www.ssga.com/us/en/intermediary/etfs/fund-finder

re:https://tinyurl.com/5n7u86b4

Don’t know if you are an investor / trader or a researcher.

As a Swing Trader, I own and trade all twelve (12) since 2006, and fully 2007 when I got laid off. I think you are missing XRT.

Per Simons Sez rules, currently, all have BUY signals except for XLY which was sold on 4/22/22 at 179 and today XLY is hanging around 150 and change.
About 16.2011 percent drop. Waiting for a buy signal so says Simon.

Enjoying your research project, keep up the good job.

Best regards,

Quillnpenn -

Energy (XLE) was key to some sector rotation strategies. Including Technology and Energy worked well. For example:

Assets: XLK (Technology), XLE (Energy), Cash.
Invest in asset with highest 12-month return.

CAGR Jan 2000 - Jul 2022
Dual Momentum: 13%
Equal Weight: 8%
SP 500: 7%
XLE: 7%
XLK: 6%

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/test-market-timing-model…

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OCTOBER PICKS-

My picks for a while- overall. market is dangerous
but these are still strong stocks.
Sorry about formatting- not sure yet how to
do it (OR even post as a new topic!) on the newly created boat.

No. Ticker Company Sector
1 DEN Denbury Inc. Energy
2 FLNG FLEX LNG Ltd. Energy
3 KNSL Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. Financial
4 VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Healthcare
5 QRHC Quest Resource Holding Corporation Industrials
6 CCRN Cross Country Healthcare, Inc. Industrials
7 CLFD Clearfield, Inc. Technology
8 DGII Digi International Inc. Technology
9 MODN Model N, Inc. Technology
Stock Screener - Overview DEN,QRHC,FLNG,CCRN,CLFD,DGII,VRTX,KNSL,MODN sector

DEN
FLNG
KNSL
VRTX
QRHC
CCRN
CLFD
DGII
MODN

1 Like