Something I worked on and someone might find this of value.
Seems that I recall TV's Jim Cramer sometimes cautioning investors using ETF funds if they
did not have the time to look at the underlying stocks for the bad apples.
Okay- let's see.
What's below-
I took the top 25 stocks (% invested) from each of the eleven sectors.
From there, I obtained the one year return for each.
I then recored the three tickers that had the best and the three
worst one year return in each sector.
You can see that even in sectors that were not the best
performing ones, there were stars; and conversely, the
best performing sectors had some dogs.
XLC was the best example of that- a so-so overall sector
performance, due to some real winners dragged down by a few.
One might want to crank up [stockcharts.com](http://stockcharts.com) and look
at the winners/losers and see how their respective
CCI (or MACD, RSI) clearly gave some buy/avoid signals
over the past year.
1 year % return
Sector Top 3 returns Bottom 3 returns Sector and 1 year returns
xlc LYV 58.7 TTWO -20.9 XLC 13.3%
xlc GOOGL 54.4 TWTR -24.2 Communication Services
xlc IPG 53.5 ATVI -28.6
xlb NUE 103.7 IP -0.9 XLB 16.7%
xlb CF 61.7 NEM -8.8 Materials
xlb MOS 49.3 FMC -11.2
xle DVN 163.3 KMI 18.3 XLE 48.1%
xle MRO 137.2 BKR 15.2 Energy
xle FANG 114 PSX 14.1
xlf WFC 63.8 ICE 15.1 XLF 33.2%
xlf SCHW 55.3 CME 13.2 Financial
xlf BAC 49.7 C -0.4
xli JCI 54.9 LMT 5.1 XLI 18.8%
xli GD 39.8 HON 1.5 Industrial
xli INFO 38.6 BA 1.3
xlk NVDA 104.2 V 1.5 XLK 26.9%
xlk AMAT 59.5 FIS -13.4 Technology
xlk INTU 54 PYPL -20.2
xlp KR 51.2 MNST 0.6 XLP 15.7%
xlp COST 45.7 WMT -1.2 Consumer Staples
xlp TSN 40.9 CLX -8.4
xlre EXR 91.3 O 19.7 XLRE 38.2%
xlre SPG 89.4 EQIX 14.1 The Real Estate
xlre MAA 73.8 VTR 13
xlu FE 39.8 ES 1.3 XLU 13.0%
xlu EXC 34.8 DTE 0.8 Utilities
xlu CNP 32.5 AES -6.6
xlv MRNA 85.8 MRK 0.2 XLV 14.5%
xlv LLY 56.5 AMGN -2.9 Health Care
xlv PFE 50.4 MDT -11.4
xly F 169.8 SBUX 4.1 XLY 18.2%
xly AZO 61.7 AMZN 2.8 Consumer Discretionary
xly LOW 53.4 ROST -14
13 Likes
tpoto -
I think this is a brilliant approach; very helpful and imformative.
Thanks for what you’re doing here.
Lead
2 Likes
tpto,
Nice presentation.
Been Swing Trading this portfolio (all twelve) since 2006 as a Swing Trader https://tinyurl.com/5apb78h3
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/swingtrading.asp
I believe what is missing from the list is XRT S&P Retail SPDR as the 12th stock we trade. Have a buy signal today.
https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/XRT/interactive-c…
Something to ponder,
Quillnpenn -
tpoto-
Really valuable work with lots of buy candidates. I only looked at the top 3 column for CCI but numerous candidates, like you said, depending on ones criteria of above -100 or above 100 or whatever. With the addition of MACD it may help in buy decisions for longer term holding vs swing trades.
One interesting observation is that sectors “Energy, Financial, Real Estate” bottom 3’s 1yr results make those whole sector somewhat attractive.
Wonder how much these results might change if done monthly or quarterly to see if winners stay winners or if one should also look at the results as a Bottom 3 “Dogs of the Sector” strategy similar to “Dog’s of the Dow” strategy rather than CCI,RSI,MACD strategy.
Russ
3 Likes
Wonder how much these results might change if done monthly or quarterly to see if winners stay winners or if one should also look at the results as a Bottom 3 “Dogs of the Sector” strategy similar to “Dog’s of the Dow” strategy…
Academic studies and work over on the MI board has shown that industry momentum persists on a monthly time frame. This means that you want to select from industries that have done well over the past month.
Conversely, on a monthly (21 trading days) time frame the strongest stocks tend to underperform. Thus, from a strong industry you want to select stocks that have underperformed that industry average. Look at stocks whose momentum is just under their industry average. Rinse and repeat each month.
DB2
4 Likes