Does anyone have information on why SEDG is getting hit today? I just saw it was down 10.3% but I’m not seeing any new news. Seems like too large of a drop for just market fluctuations. What are opinions on whether this is an actionable drop?
2020investor
Haven’t seen anything except China, China, China, China! China will sink the world. I’m not quite buying it yet. I haven’t seen the data to say China is going to sink the world. They are having problems for sure.
I’m actioning on SEDG until someone can provide more news.
Keith
Does anyone have information on why SEDG is getting hit today?
Hi 2020investor, Solar stocks tend to fluctuate with the price of crude oil, although almost zero electricity is made with crude oil. Go figure!
WTI Crude is down 3% today and Brent Crude is down 2.1% today, and SEDG is a little stock where a relatively small amount of selling can drop the price a lot.
Another issue is that the tax credit may phase out at the beginning of 2017, but SEDG’s earnings and revenue will be a lot bigger by then
As I figure their adjusted earnings for the last six quarters (normalizing the number of shares to the current number to equalize the pre-IPO numbers), are as follows
2014: (12) (06) 06 09
2015: 20 31
From this, I’d guess that the Sept quarter should be conservatively between 37 and 40 cents… up from 6 cents. At that point they will have trailing earnings of roughly $1.00, and growth of earnings well over 200%. By the end of the Dec quarter they will probably have EPS of $1.30 to $1.35.
In the conference call they said The average selling price (ASP) constantly falls (about 7.5% per year) but they are confident they can continue to reduce the cost of manufacture faster. In addition, they are coming out with new products in the fourth quarter, also they have built a factory in Mexico and are about to start using it, and are installing a fully automated assembly line in their plant in Hungary and have ordered two more automated lines. Each will cut cost 10% and increase quality of the product. They expect to be in EVERY major solar company in the US. The ones they aren’t yet in are testing their products already. SolarCity and Vivent are installing loads of panels (more all the time), etc, etc.
Hope this helps
Saul
Quick money and hedge funds now out for IPO profits. Probably a decent buying point
https://twitter.com/HedgeMind/status/634036898533474305
http://hedgemind.com/stocks/symbol?t=SEDG
I always find it odd that solar stocks trade with oil on the premise that low oil prices make solar less attractive since you “save less” by not needing to pay for the oil. Obviously that is simplified, but its the general premise of the argument
Presumably there is some limited correlation because if oil is becoming cheaper, the decision to install solar may be deferred.
Does anyone have information on why SEDG is getting hit today?
There’s a quote that goes something like this, “The market can stay irrational, longer than you can stay solvent.”
The SEDG price drop looks similar to many new IPOs; they go way up initially, perhaps stay there awhile, but many make their way back down to find a bottom. My guess is that SEDG is headed to 22.00 and if it falls below that, it may end up where it opened at 18.00.
classic overreaction. Now ‘only’ 5% down.
I added more SEDG at the low today. I also finished out my INBK position at two excellent price points, and added to my smaller portions of SNCR and ABMD. I love a day when I can add.
Vivienne
It less China China but more oil oil. The more oil goes down the less attractive solar becomes vs fossil fuel prices and grid parity.
So Oil keeps crashing and Solar keeps crashing.
It didn’t help that Canadian Solar disappointed. The sell off is sector wide.
http://seekingalpha.com/news/2736706-solar-stocks-sell-off-a…
Ant
… and probably rising interest rates from the Fed isn’t helping solar which is also a proxy for utility and yieldco investing.
Ant
But interest rates aren’t rising and don’t look like they are going to anytime soon. Bonds have actually been rising which has been pushing rates lower.