Has anyone seen any news that might account for todays drop?
Earnings release tomorrow, and seems market is handing us a gift. Normally I don’t like to buy right before earnings, but I am still “building” my position and this looks like a nice opportunity to add.
Any thoughts?
Kevin
Has anyone seen any news that might account for todays drop?
Perhaps the poor earnings from BP and Exxon reminded people of the dropping oil prices? Cheap oil means less incentive for people to pay the high up-front costs to get into solar energy.
Kevin,
Yesterday SEDG was up during regular trading hours, then afterhours they were down 2%…the only piece of news that came out was that some insider selling took place.
Perhaps some traders took this as a “sign” ahead of earnings and decided to move to the sidelines.
Or profit taking before earnings. It’s had an nice recovery lately.
The only see I see out there is a reconfirm buy from Needham, so I took a little nibble while it was down in the upper $25 range.
-Bob
I am not a TA guy, nor do I try to set a price to sell, but it seems like $28 or so has been a sticking point, both on the way up and way down in stock price.
I sold my meager shares yesterday because I had them longer than 30 days and they were up 40%, and I felt there were better places for my money recently (like INFN).
I still have a small position in SEDG, but took a bit off the top is all. I think that is what others are doing, but could be wrong.
Heres to a pop after earnings!
Robert
Has anyone seen any news that might account for todays drop?
At first, I thought it was in sympathy with ENPH dropping due to a released statement about needing a $35M “shelf” which was interpreted as a possible 30% dilution to shareholders and I bought into SEDG thinking this has nothing to do with SEDG. But now I can’t confirm the announcement as it is not on the ENPHASE investors section online.
Also read that SEDG had a lot of insider selling in the month of January at prices between $25 and $30. However, a quick check does not confirm that either.
May just be rumors to hit them before earnings tomorrow, but I doubt that because ENPH and SCTY are down heavy today too.
Don’t know yet. Anyone else have something?
I think Othalan mentioned it already.
Down in sympathy with the oil downdraft today…that, and nervousness about earnings tomorrow.
Cheap oil means less incentive for people to pay the high up-front costs to get into solar energy.
othalan, can you elaborate on this? I have yet to receive a call from my electric company telling me my rates are going down because the price of oil is down.
Has anyone else seen their electricity rates drop because of low oil?
There is no doubt that solar trades with oil, but it’s not a correlation I’ve ever understood. Only a tiny fraction of electricity generation comes from oil (about 1%, both in the U.S. and globally according to the EAI).
Thanks,
Neil
IPO less than a year ago at $18 (top of the range). Seems a good max. price to pay and average down from.
And back then, oil was at…
strelna,
IPO less than a year ago at $18 (top of the range). Seems a good max. price to pay and average down from.
And look at how much they’ve grown (and are expected to continue growing) since then.
Good luck with your strategy, I don’t think you’ll get many opportunities to buy at those prices again, although you might, the market does some crazy things!
othalan: Cheap oil means less incentive for people to pay the high up-front costs to get into solar energy.
Neil: othalan, can you elaborate on this? I have yet to receive a call from my electric company telling me my rates are going down because the price of oil is down.
Neil, I may be wrong, but here is how I see it: (FYI, I am NOT invested in SEDG but have been considering it as an investment)
You are right that electric bill are probably not falling because most of our electricity in the USA comes from coal, natural gas and nuclear power plants. Here are some numbers I found:
https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=427&t=3
Coal = 39%
Natural gas = 27%
Nuclear = 19%
Hydropower = 6%
Other renewables = 7%
Biomass = 1.7%
Geothermal = 0.4%
Solar = 0.4%
Wind = 4.4%
Petroleum = 1%
Other gases < 1%
This explains why you have not seen a decrease in your electricity bill. However, this is the consumer point of view, not the irrational/bipolar Mr. Market point of view. Here are a few thoughts on why I am thinking that crude oil prices might be effecting SEDG in spite of the above numbers:
#1: Commercial Sales (power plants)
Initial investment costs are very low for creating energy from petroleum but very high for solar energy. With falling oil prices I can easily see investors being worried that power plant companies will stop investing in new solar plants simply because it is (for now) far more economical to get energy from petroleum. For these commercial sales of solar panels the absolute numbers for energy generation are irrelevant, only the relative size of solar vs petroleum.
Given how much oil is being discussed lately in the media, I can easily see this causing investors to be concerned that SEDG commercial sales will be decreasing as the price of crude oil continues to fall. I have no clue how big a real effect this will have on sales.
#2: Residential Sales
Looked at factually, I see no possible reason for low oil prices to effect residential solar energy related sales. Petroleum based power plants could double energy output and barely touch residential energy bills. This means the profitability equation for solar is virtually unchanged. However, market reactions like today’s are based more on emotion (hope and fear) than on such facts.
#3: Irrationality
Lots of irrational views could come up that may be linked into SEDG trading. Just speculating here: “The media says falling oil prices are scary for the economy, oil is linked to energy, SEDG is linked to energy, thus falling oil prices are bad for SEDG!” OR: “Oil is used to generate energy, oil is falling in price, energy must therefore get cheaper, solar energy will no longer save money, thus SEDG sales will fall!” Facts such as the above numbers are irrelevant to this type of irrationality.
#4: Short Investor Memories
The Exxon and BP earnings releases reminded people of the falling oil prices. It could be any concerns related to the above are already factored into the SEDG stock price. However, the market as a whole seems to me to have a short memory for how it has reacted to past events and tends to react to big events multiple times when reminded of what is happening in the world.
Those are my best attempts at guessing a rational for the huge drop in SEDG today without any company specific news. #1 has some factual basis, but I really have no clue if it will have any impact on SEDG specifically.
There you have my VERY inexpert guess at today’s price drop.
Hmm, all this makes me think today might be a good entry point into SEDG …
– David
Thanks everyone for the replies.
I did end up adding a little earlier. I couldn’t find anything regarding the company specifically or their customers, so took today as opportuity. Still not at my “target allocation”, but didn’t want to go too heavy right before earnings. If everything is good and market catches on, it can do the lifting for me. If all is good and market still doesn’t catch on, I can always add more.
Of course there is possibilty of all not being good, but still relatively small position for me so I can re-examine if that comes to pass.
FWIW, added to LGIH today too.
Kevin
Has anyone else seen their electricity rates drop because of low oil?
Maybe not low oil but low natural gas sure has helped. 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NhsTnMB5gpI
Andy
The thing is Foodles, there are some companies I really want to own stock in, or more stock in, and for those my watchlist price is based on the best I think I am likely to get (often judged by recent PE ranges). Then there are other companies which are really optional (i.e. fun but outside the strategy) and which I really don’t mind if I never own at all: for those a briskly conservative price is entered.
Sounds like a good, disciplined approach.
Many of us finally got our wishes for a decent earnings pop and it was our rarely discussed SEDG. Up 3% today and 12% after hours!! Hope it has follow thru support.
Nice to see good performance recognized by the market as it should. It shakes my confidence in the utility of our analysis when the market punishes a stock after positive earnings announcements.
Go Solar!
Next up: Skechers and Infinera who also had a great day today.
I have yet to receive a call from my electric company telling me my rates are going down because the price of oil is down.
Has anyone else seen their electricity rates drop because of low oil?
I checked my dominion power web site…
2016 Refund Summary
Your current account balance reflects a refund credit due to the Virginia State Corporation Commission biennial review of Dominion Virginia Power’s base rates. Your specific refund amount and details are listed below. Click here for more information about the refund
I got $6.03 back!
Bazinga! I might buy a share of GoPro tomorrow morning!
My online bills don’t seem to show me a rate. I can add “generation” and “Fuel” and divide KW used. For August I get 0.083/kw and for Jan I get 0.0681/kw. But I have not faith in those numbers.