Seeing bargains in travel...recession coming?

How about you? On top of that, Bloomberg had discussions this morning about profitability of airlines on the decline. Looks as though big ticket spending is on the decline, post-Covid rebound travel waning, opening up possibility of insane travel bargains, which is great for us. Or maybe it’s just seasonal? A preview of recession?



There seems to be no question the economy is slowing. Rising interest rates and inflation are putting on the brakes. Travel seems to benefit from pent up demand from Covid. People are eager to go and they have funds to pay for it.

But you have to wonder how long that can last. People looking for gains a year from now (as in a taxable account) probably should wait for a bottom. The travel slow down (and new home sales, and slowing auto sales) should surprise no one.

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  • The Fed projects U.S. GDP growth of 1.5% next year.
  • Inflation is trending steadily lower but will likely remain above 2% in 2024.

That is what the Fed has been trying to do for a year and a half. “Long and variable lags”, to quote Milton Friedman.


What kind of travel deals are you seeing?

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Some really great sounding month plus luxury cruises, as well as large discounts on travel for 2024. I get multiple travel emails, have for several years now in anticipation of actually getting to go, (which should be next year.) I have never seen these kinds of discounts in this kind of volume before. Seems different.




If you are traveling take advantage.

One of my sisters won the Barr Award a few years ago. Covid stopped the trip portion of the award. Then the institution scheduled a trip for this week to Jordan. It was canceled because of events in the ME.

The trip got rescheduled and the group went to Cuba earlier this week.

That is my point. The travel patterns have radically changed in the last week.

At first lower prices, but as the volume of travel comes back the number of destinations is far fewer. If you want to go there a month from now because it is safer so will many more people.

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I understand what you are saying, but this is an accumulation of what I’ve been seeing over the last several weeks, so not just the issues in Israel. Could possibly also be that as we get closer to being able to hit the road, I am just paying more attention, which is why I was asking if anyone else was seeing the same trend. I have not collected data on this, only impressions. I have learned to pay attention to my intuition, however, as it is more often on target than not.

The holidays are coming, also, so it just may be the time to tempt people to spend their holiday dollars on travel. Or big dollar items like these trips are no longer affordable given the higher costs for housing, transportation and insurance. I offer no conclusions, only theories at this time, with a watch alert.

If I see the National Geographic expeditions going on big sale, that will likely be the time to worry.



Oh boy. Here we go!


Hoping these deals get better by the time we can pull the trigger this spring

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