.
Focus, Focus, Focus.
That’s the name of my game. For the first 6 months of this year I’ve been concentrating my
ports down to just a few winners only. I’ve sold my solid but slow growing stocks and my
dividend payers, some that I’ve held for a few years.
Buy, Guy, Buy
I started out with over 50% in cash. Now I’m all in. So this is everything I own now and how it’s
doing, where:
• Size = Percent of Ports
• Days = Days Held
• Conv. = Conviction on a scale of 1-10, where 10 would be a sure thing (For the record,
I’ve never rated anything a 10.)
• EOYTG = EndOfYear Target Gain (set when I bought the stock this year, or 1/1/17,
whichever came last.
• EOYTP = EndOfYear Target Price, based on the beginning price plus the Target Gain
set earlier.
• TO Trgt = Distance from Target Price today (Negative = Past Target).
• CAGR = Capital Appreciation Gain Rate, Including if relevant, dividends.
• Alerts = Reminders to sell, so far ignored.
Ticker Equity Name Prch Date Size Days Conv* Strategy EOYTG EOYTP To Trgt Gain % CAGR Alerts
AAPL Apple Inc. 05/20/15 4.0% 743 5 Watch Closely 26.0% 145.908 (4.5%) 31.0 % 9.5% ¦ AAPL is past Target by 4.5%.
ALGN Align Technology, Inc. 05/10/17 7.2% 22 6 Watch Closely 29.0% 177.9684 22.6% 5.2 % 138.2%
CSX CSX Corporation 04/13/15 2.3% 780 8 Buy On Dip 35.0% 48.8025 (9.9%) 67.9 % 27.5% ¦ CSX is past Target by 9.9%.
CSX CSX Corporation 04/07/15 2.8% 786 8 Buy On Dip 35.0% 48.8025 (9.9%) 67.3 % 27.0% ¦ CSX is past Target by 9.9%.
FB Facebook, Inc. 03/21/17 5.4% 72 8 Hold 20.0% 166.428 9.9% 9.1 % 56.7%
FB Facebook, Inc. 04/23/15 3.9% 770 8 Hold 34.0% 155.4802 2.7% 82.2 % 33.0% ¦ FB is only 2.7% from Target.
GOOG Alphabet Inc. 03/21/17 5.5% 72 8 Hold 25.0% 1059.45 9.8% 13.8 % 94.0%
GOOG Alphabet Inc. 05/20/15 4.5% 743 8 Hold 35.0% 1051.3935 9.0% 78.4 % 33.0%
MA Mastercard Incorporated 02/21/17 6.4% 100 6 Hold 17.0% 127.9629 4.1% 12.5 % 52.7% ¦ MA is only 4.1% from Target.
MELI MercadoLibre, Inc. 05/19/17 5.0% 13 5 Watch Closely 27% 369.062 34.2% (5.4 %) -81.1%
MU Micron Technology, Inc. 05/11/17 10.9% 21 6 Watch Closely 22.0% 35.624 15.8% 5.3 % 155.1%
PAYC Paycom Software, Inc. 05/22/17 3.4% 10 6 Watch Closely 31% 84.9797 29.9% 0.8 % 35.9%
PYPL PayPal Holdings, Inc. 05/01/17 6.5% 31 7 Hold 17.0% 55.458 6.2% 10.1 % 216.6%
SHOP Shopify Inc. 02/27/17 10.3% 94 8 Hold 50.0% 92.205 0.4% 49.4 % 364.8% ¦ SHOP is only 0.4% from Target.
SWKS Skyworks Solutions, Inc. 05/01/17 6.5% 31 6 Watch Closely 18.0% 117.056 10.0% 7.2 % 130.9%
VEEV Veeva Systems Inc. 05/10/17 11.2% 22 7 Hold 16.0% 64.2524 1.1% 14.7 % 945.3% ¦ VEEV is only 1.1% from Target.
Sell, Sell, Sell
Unless one of my holdings blows up, my sells include all the mistakes I’ve made, including
selling a pharma that I didn’t study enough to trust and went on to earn another 65% after I dumped
it… Following is everything I’ve sold this year, where:
• Bought = Purchase Date.
• Sold = Date Sold.
• Days = Days Held
• Real = Realized Gain/(Loss) %
• Since = Gain/(Loss) % since I sold out.
• Result = Good Call or Mistake.
Ticker Equity Name Bought Sold Days Real Real% Since Result
BIDU Baidu, Inc. 02/14/17 03/13/17 27 (5.5%) (5.5%) 7.5% Good Call
BWLD Buffalo Wild Wings, Inc. 05/22/15 02/17/17 637 (0.4%) (0.4%) (8.6%) Good Call
BWLD Buffalo Wild Wings, Inc. 04/14/15 02/17/17 675 (14.2%) (14.2%) (8.6%) Good Call
BWLD Buffalo Wild Wings, Inc. 05/22/15 02/17/17 637 0.0% 0.0% (8.6%) Good Call
COP ConocoPhillips 03/23/15 03/13/17 721 (22.4%) (22.4%) (2.6%) Good Call
CVX Chevron Corporation 03/23/15 03/10/17 718 9.8% 9.8% (4.3%) Fair Call
DIS Walt Disney Company (The) 02/21/17 05/26/17 94 (1.5%) (1.5%) (0.3%) Good Call
ERDCF Erdene Resources Development Inc 04/24/17 05/02/17 8 (55.0%) (55.0%) #N/A Good Call
ERDCF Erdene Resources Development Inc 04/24/17 05/01/17 7 (2.6%) (2.6%) #N/A Good Call
EXAS Exact Sciences Corporation 03/16/17 03/29/17 13 7.0% 7.0% 65.2% Terrible Call
EXEL Exelixis, Inc. 03/16/17 04/13/17 28 (8.6%) (8.6%) (9.7%) Good Call
FAST Fastenal Company 05/15/15 04/03/17 689 25.2% 25.2% (16.5%) Bad Call
GLD SPDR-GOLD TRUST 04/21/17 05/01/17 10 (2.2%) (2.2%) 1.0% Good Call
GLDW SPDR-LD GOLD TR 03/02/17 03/13/17 11 (3.7%) (3.7%) 0.1% Good Call
ITA ISHARS-US AEROS 02/28/17 03/29/17 29 (4.0%) (4.0%) 7.2% Good Call
KITE Kite Pharma, Inc. 03/16/17 03/30/17 14 (4.7%) (4.7%) (12.9%) Good Call
KITE Kite Pharma, Inc. 03/16/17 04/03/17 18 (0.3%) (0.3%) (12.9%) Good Call
LGIH LGI Homes, Inc. 03/16/17 05/02/17 47 (1.2%) (1.2%) 1.8% Good Call
MIDD The Middleby Corporation 04/16/15 05/01/17 746 32.1% 32.1% (7.6%) Good Call
NFLX Netflix, Inc. 01/18/17 03/06/17 47 (2.3%) (2.3%) 15.7% Bad Call
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation 01/23/17 03/13/17 49 (4.1%) (4.1%) 45.0% Bad Call
SDS PRO-ULSH S&P500 04/18/17 04/20/17 2 7.0% 7.0% (4.9%) Good Call
SLV ISHARS-SLVR TR 04/21/17 05/01/17 10 (4.3%) (4.3%) 0.7% Good Call
UBNT Ubiquiti Networks, Inc. 05/02/17 05/09/17 7 (9.9%) (9.9%) 1.6% Good Call
UNP Union Pacific Corporation 04/13/15 03/20/17 707 (4.1%) (4.1%) 5.5% Good Call
UNP Union Pacific Corporation 03/23/15 03/20/17 728 (0.4%) (0.4%) 5.5% Good Call
UNP Union Pacific Corporation 07/06/15 03/20/17 623 12.3% 12.3% 5.5% Good Call
WFC Wells Fargo & Company 02/21/17 04/05/17 43 (5.9%) (5.9%) (8.4%) Good Call
XLV SPDR-HLTH CR 04/27/17 03/14/17 -44 5.0% 5.0% (0.1%) Good Call
(self) Report Card
Overall, our ports are up an average of 19.3%. (All now have same holding percentages, but
port size and commissions and fees make a slight— from 1 to1.5% —difference in results.)
Not| bad considering what I started the year with, but not near where I want to be. Ill take …
maybe a B- in a good mood, otherwise C+.
Next! (Things left to do:)
• I mentioned before I’ve been developing a gigantic spreadsheet (actually a series of
spreadsheets) to run companies through to get reliable new candidates. It might have
worked too well. Starting with 700-800 potential “candidates” I now have too many finalists to
study in any depth at all but the heck of it is that all are going up in price like there’s no
tomorrow. I’ve had worse problems and I guess I’ll survive. But what a waste, and I
spent so many hours working out the details of the formulas to get there. It’s harder than
one would think to decide how to grade a company on hundreds of data points, even
after the data lands in your lap.
• I have cash left in one account where a buy limit order didn’t hit (tried for too many
shares, I guess?) and the orders in our other ports filled, evidently barely. Otherwise,
I’m all in; several ports are down to less than $100, something I’ve never had happen
before—in any port.
• I want to look into Manifest Investing, an online brokerage where you can build a port
with any percentages of any tickers once, and then buy and sell shares of everything at
any time for one commission. Managing ports for a some relatives, I’ve decided to keep them
all the same from now on to simply things considerably and this fee structure would save me/us
hundreds, maybe thousands, of dollars per year. Plus, you can buy fractional shares, kind of like
having your own mutual fund without the fees. It’s harder to squeeze a few shares of GOOG at $900
into a small IRA and keep it balanced than one might imagine. No problem with Manifest. Just have
some final questions to answer before the Big Switch. Like: do I have to sell everything < Gasp! >
to transfer?
How are YOU doing?
Hope you’re all having a good year, much better than mine. And Me? Well, investing wise I’m
… not satisfied, not yet, but remain happy. Why not?
Call me
Any and all comments or advice, positive or (especially) negative, are appreciated. Truly appreciated.
Thanks!
A shout out to Saul; thanks for herding this board and keeping it focused. And to the posters
here. Amazing things can happen when we help each other learn. For me I think the
biggest thing I’ve learned to overcome, with this board’s input from everyone posting here,
is how to sell with zero emotion. If it ain’t working, file 13. Don’t think about it, don’t fret
over it, just get it out of the way. It’s not for everyone I’m sure, but right when I was searching
for more ways to focus my investing on higher gains, you folks came through for me. Big Time. So
thanks. Big time.
Dan