Shifting coal flows

Europe’s new trade flows for coal shaping up as import ban on Russia looms
https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insight…
With the flow of Russian coal to Europe coming to a final end, buyers jostling for alternatives are increasingly in favor of tapping non-traditional markets, a development many believe, for better, will likely lead to the creation of new trade flows for the fuel.

While obvious substitutes like South Africa, Australia and Indonesia are a fallback plan for many European coal buyers, new origins like Tanzania, Kazakhstan and Nigeria are being positively considered as a further backup measure…“We have already booked cargoes from Tanzania and some from Kazakhstan as the coal quality is better than many other origins. A mine visit has been done in Nigeria too; the idea is to tap markets which have the potential but have not been explored much as supply from Russia was consistent,” a top Europe-based buyer said…

The EU adopted a sanctions package in April banning Russian coal in response to alleged war crimes by Russia in Ukraine. The complete ban is scheduled to become effective from Aug. 10.

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Global coal demand is set to return to its all-time high in 2022
www.iea.org/news/global-coal-demand-is-set-to-return-to-its-…
The world’s consumption of coal is set to rise slightly in 2022, taking it back to the record level it reached nearly a decade ago, according to an IEA report published today, which notes that significant uncertainty hangs over the outlook for coal as a result of slowing economic growth and energy market turbulence.

Based on current economic and market trends, global coal consumption is forecast to rise by 0.7% in 2022 to 8 billion tonnes, assuming the Chinese economy recovers as expected in the second half of the year, the IEA’s July 2022 Coal Market Update says. This global total would match the annual record set in 2013, and coal demand is likely to increase further next year to a new all-time high…

Demand for coal in India has been strong since the start of 2022 and is expected to rise by 7% for the full year as the country’s economy grows and the use of electricity expands. In China, coal demand is estimated to have declined by 3% in the first half of 2022 as renewed Covid lockdowns in some cities slowed economic growth, but an expected increase in the second half of the year is likely to bring coal consumption for the full year back to the same levels as last year. China and India together consume double the amount of coal as the rest of the world combined…

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