High level diplomacy, Russia style. Pass the vodka!
The Captain
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Therefore, Vlad is “taking the train” everywhere. Wonder why…??? LOL !
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The video the news has been showing shows the plane going straight down, literally “falling out of the sky”, with large amounts of something streaming behind. The something is probably fuel, indicating a wing fuel tank with a big hole in it. Holed by shrapnel from a SAM? Pretty bold to shoot down a plane, but, maybe the FSB couldn’t get past Prigozhin’s brigade of bodyguards.
What happens to Wagner? The media is figuring merged into the Russian defense establishment. I’m thinking seconded to the FSB, which is under the direct control of Putin.
Steve
Thinking in terms of low probability events, but events that would be monumental if that low probability event happened, let’s play conspiracy theorist for a moment. No - let’s make up a story.
What if there were a powerful national leader who happened to employ a mercenary army led by a smart and somewhat charismatic general. And let’s say that general made some sort of show of defiance against this powerful leader. So the powerful leader hatched a plot to get revenge for that defiance - a plot that would openly demonstrate this powerful leader’s power.
But let’s say the general got wind of the plot. Something that not at all inconceivable, since the powerful leader has a history of exacting revenge, and the general is well connected and expecting some sort of revenge. So the general makes it look like he’s going about his business, but has somehow managed to slip into hiding just in time to avoid the revenge plot.
In the mean time, the revenge plot is executed. After the event, the mercenary army quickly issues a statement that the general was indeed the victim of the plot, and that a couple of other leaders of the mercenary army were caught up in the revenge.
But the general and his lieutenants slip into hiding in some out the way place in Africa. There they wait and continue their planning to overthrow the powerful leader.
Might make a really good book, or an action movie.
–Peter
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Write it up, and pass it off as a “lost” Tom Clancy work.
I’m wondering why the plane was not burning on the way down, as I would expect from either a bomb or a SAM.
Looking at the pix, it seems that all I see is the fuselage and the two engines. Both wings completely gone. No wings would be consistent with the way the plane is falling, no aerodynamic lift or control at all. That would imply planned failure/very small bombs, on the wing spar.
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Steve,
The Russian SAM used to take the plane down does not use its (small) explosive charge to directly destroy, but rather to forcibly spray a lot of high velocity shrapnel that is purpose designed to maximally shred fuselage, wings, and fuel tanks. Photos of the wreckage showed exactly that type of damage.
david fb
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That looks like a bunch of smoke coming out of the plane in your photo. And then there’s this smoke:
In the top left is a suspicious looking bit of cloud/smoke in the air. And in the bottom right is the plane falling - still trailing some smoke. The rather linear form of that cloud/smoke looks to me like the spot where some event happened. Was it the plane? (smoke, boom, smoke trailing off as inertia takes over the plane) Or a missile? (missile exhaust, boom, smoke trailing)
And let’s not forget that we do know the plane was at 28k or 29k feet above the ground, according to flight tracking that follows all but the smallest of planes. There’s not a lot of oxygen at that level, so open flames are hard to sustain. Instead, you get smoldering fires - smoke but no open flames.
–Peter
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Correct. Years ago, I watched a video of Duke Cunningham talking about his dog fight over 'Nam, the day he was shot down. He said that, when the SAM detonated, it sounded like someone threw gravel at the side of his plane. The back half of his Phantom burst into flames. Not wanting to be a POW, Cunningham stayed with the plane, heading for the coast. He had just barely cleared the shoreline, when the tail broke off of his plane, from the heat of the fire. Then he and his backseater punched out.
I am not seeing that scenario in this case. There appear to be no wings at all on the plane, and the plane is completely out of control. Looks like both wings were precisely broken off the plane.
Steve
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Perhaps it wasn’t him?
He very rich and Africa is a big place where he has a lot of clients:
Conspiracy theories already
Even better:
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DNA samples will be analyzed from the body parts recovered at the crash site, which will either confirm or deny claims about who was on the plane.
Steve
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All the details held by the Russians presumably 
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Wait a minute!! I already started writing that book (see above). They can’t copy my idea!!!
–Peter
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Don’t forget the huge third option - DNA testing was inconclusive because the post-impact (I’m refusing to call this a crash) fire damaged the DNA too much.
And the 4th option. The DNA testing will be done by Russian authorities who know darn well that to keep their heads attached to their shoulders they MUST find the appropriate DNA. So that’s what the report will say.
–Peter
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Not all ballistic missiles create an explosion on their own so if no fuel line is clipped, then there may not be fiery explosion. It is fair to assume that if an onboard explosive was used, it would have been small enough to easily hide and designed to cripple the plane without the need for a fireball. Keep in mind that a big ball of fire would certainly point to something other than accident.
With my humor out of the way, let’s look at the first article’s hypothesis, that Prigozhin staged his death.
I find this highly unlikely. The issue is that Putin would know if the incident was staged. As I somewhat humorously suggested above, this only works if Prigozhin found out about how Putin intended to kill him and made it seem like the plan worked. That’s not staging your death, that’s sneaking out of it. If the incident were staged, Putin would know that this is not what he was planning. He would know to keep looking, and Prigozhin would still be at risk.
As to the second article, it’s either just plain silly or badly translated/written. When a plane hits the ground the way this one did, you don’t find bodies. You find body parts. Now if there are no parts consistent with a head, then that’s an issue. But body parts separated from each other? Very normal.
–Peter
I’m a long time flight sim enthusiast and I’ve watched tons of air combat footage. That poof of smoke to the left is exactly what an AA missile detonation looks like. Very convincing evidence to me.
An ex-RAP ‘top gun’ has said much the same on UK TV. It also looks like one or both wings were blown off - typical missile damage he says.
Yep, this is Machiavelli 101. Putin is an unforgiving dictator. This plane ‘accident’ was a public execution. Who would be out randomly filming a plane on a trip from Moscow to St. Petersburg and then getting it at the exact moment when it was going down? Putin is sending a message to the world and, especially to his own peeps.
Pete
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I submit that Putin would want to know the truth: has his target been disposed of, or does the FSB need to keep looking for him?
Steve
The video of the falling plane shows an overcast sky. The pic of the “detonation” shows clear blue sky. I call that an inconsistency.
Steve