<<<or the recent example of AMZN…that if one held for 18 years, would have returned nicely (but not before 10 years, just trying to get whole). IMO, when I see posters cart out what they believe to be comparisons to justify the valuation (like comparing AMZN and SHOP), I think there is great risk of confirmation bias.>>>
As Duma points out, SHOP is not AMZN. Two big ways, one is AWS (SHOP has no such thing and never will), and AMZN sold its own products for a long time. It was not until a few years ago that AMZN’s third party sellers became half of their merchant value.
But the most relevant point, AMZN makes more profit off of AWS today (even as it is still growing rapidly) than Amazon makes off the more than $100 billion in retail sales that it makes from its own products and from third party products that it provides fulfillment and other services for.
Point being, that without AWS, Amazon may still not have recovered and the 10 years it took to recover might still be running.
The comparison is just wrong. Buy or not buy SHOP for SHOP. Don’t buy it as an analog, and don’t buy it because it makes you feel like you belong to a club. SHOP’s past results speak for itself. SHOP’s current merchant make-up is being debated as it is clear a good chunk of its new merchants are the drop shippers and to the 40 million or so existing small and medium size businesses as is the narrative. I do not know if that makes any difference or not. SHOP’s future is not knowable, but it clearly is the best online merchant platform in the world today.
But just don’t buy it with visions of Amazon. It clearly is more like eBay, but even there it is not eBay either. It is SHOP.