Andy,
re: Teeter Totter TQQQ / SQQQ
SQQQ - don’t buy until you see the first green bar after Gate assuming using OHLC bars.
Quill -
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Andy,
Nice chart.
You will notice on all Barchart’s you are given a freebee gift that the IBD charts wll never have.
Every Swing Trader sees the Smiley and Frown faces ( High/Low Price Markers ) on the charts telling them when to buy and when to sell per the two (2) simple rules. This is your Holy Grail. Maintain a 2 month chart and ya can’t wait for the next day.
Set up a wishlist/s for Barchart and Stockchart and you can plow through the list/s within a few minutes via the Flipcharts looking for the Smiley/frown faces starting at 10 am and again at 3:30 pm daily.
Simon Sez I
Simon Sez - Smiley
Quill -
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Quill: When you see a smilee face, still need to wait for a green hiking bar before buying? Same with the sell rule: need to wait for a red bar after the frowning face?
OK, I am getting confused because it seems we are talking about 2 things here: Simon Sez vs TeeterTotter. Is TeeterTotter just using the current SimonSez rules to trade opposite pairs like SQQQ, TQQQ.
I am also confused about the history of SimonSez and what is the current orthodoxy. In one thread SimonSez rules were to buy and sell as the exponential 13dma crosses over/under the 50dma. I think that was the approach that turned $5k into $12million, so shouldn’t I be happy and rich doing that? Another SimonSez gets more complicated with a triangular moving average, smiley faces, HA bars, etc.
So TeeterTotter is using opposite pairs to (almost) always be invested. It uses smoothed HA bars and some “complex” studies to signal buy and sell.
Quill’s SimonSez 1 example from this thread. It has a DPO, HASMO, MAT(5), and TSI (25,13,4). Is this chart setup use for TeeterTotter, or SimonSez or both?
This was also listed as a Simon Sez Smiley face. It has a 20dma exponential, a TSI (16,8,4), OHLC bars. Very different than above. Why are the TSI values so different? Why no use HASMO on this chart.
Then there is this VISA chart, it has HASMO (I think), SAR (20,2), 20dma, SAR (20,2)
Then there is Andy’s chart, SAR (15, 2), TSI (16,8,4) overlayed on price for buy sell signal. I am sure this is HASMO, though I don’t see it called out on the cart.
Andy, Why don’t you show the Moving Average Triangular (5)?
What are the SAR setting of 15,2 labeled as when making that selection. I can’t make my ThinkorSwim produce the same values. Here are my options…
Thanks,
Pete, who’s brain is apparently shrinking.
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Bridgewater,
A good question. I had to COST today. Whnen trading with HA’s, you execute one-bar after Smiley or Frown face
4/4/2024 had a buy signal with HA and the OHLC bars confirmed if I didn’t use the HA’s.
5/14/2034 had to sell
By Flipping charts,
I have AAPL, DAL, GDX, TECH, on standby,
I have a sell signal for BK
Bext group will be the 12 SPDR’s. boring----- Had a sell signal for XLU and XLP. XRT on standby. Standby is when the Frown is on the last bar to see what happens to IImorrow. Been trading the SPDR’s this since 2006.
Werks just well as trading the Crruptos. I own the 4 most basic Cryptos.
Now, if we had ownded AMC and KOS.Simon would have made us a Kazzillion dollars.
These two puppies are in standby mode.
With all the above how has Simon Sez-iii OHLC or the HA charts been looking to you.
I am training my 10 year old grandson to be a professional Swing Trader, but he wants to be a Pitcher for the NY Yankees or perhaps a Corportate Lawyer like his Rich Grandfather.
Quill -
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Pete, Quill has many forms of SimonSez and like all good traders he can change and use things that he thinks gives him an edge. I do not understand everything he does because I suspect some of it is intuition. But for me, I am very new to this, I just took one of his forms and used it as a basis of mine. Mine is set up in barchart and The sar that I am using is set to 15 2 because as you notice the red and green balls follow the candle sticks. They are just used to show you the timing. You can play around with it and even remove it. It is only there to show the timing but the real important part of the chart is the candle sticks, then the TSI. That is , at least, what I am focused on. The candle sticks tell you when to get out by the smiley face and the frown face. The TSI helps with head fakes and helps you to stay in if the small doji’s show up and you get red ones but the blue line on the TSI is still up above the yellow I know not to sell out. That is just chop or head fakes or Doji, indecision.
Now all that being said Pete, I am still very new so I don’t want you to think I am the expert. I am not, Quill is. Everything I know about this method was from him and Arindam. But I hope that helps. If not keep asking questions.
Andy
Pete,
Your are asking good questions and I can understand you r plight.
The 13 ema over 50 ema was and is Simon Sez- I
The 5K to 12 mill was still and is currently using Simon Sez-iii rules. I use the current HA’s as a backup reference for confirmation.
re: Quill’s SimonSez 1 example
Simon Sez III - Seeker is used on all 3. Howevr, they are backups where I trade per the OHLCs.
THe TSI’s - The orginal was 16,8,4, but, Charlie ecommended that I try the 25,13,4
The current V chart only has three (3) studies.
PARTP (20, 2)
MA (20, Close, 0)
TSI (25, 13, 4)
The following chart is a trainer chart for my 10 year old Granfson. His English class learning about the stock market.
It is a 3 fer plus one . HA’s, OHLC, and the GOLDEN RULE (buy LOW, sell HIGH) via the Smiley and Fron faces or the HOLY GRAIL to we Swing Traaders.
the plus one is when the GREEN Bars are a buy when above the red line. Sell when they change to RED and go below the RED line.
All 3 panels are confirmation of each other.
This chart is SILENT when Simon speaks volumes. The viewer has to oserve what the chart is saying. per the two (2) simple rules.
I thnk I explained to Bridgewater about what to do with the Smiley Frown faces. And again I could be wrng.
Bttom line there nothing to do buy wait until 3:30 pm or IImorrow of what to do. If nothing to do, go fihing with Charlie or go hit a white pellet all over the Green carpet with me. I hve a 4 HCP. No cheating whne you wind ujp in the tall grass.
Quill -
What did have to do tdoday with COST.
Pete, one more favor, look at all your portfolio charts and find me a losing Smiley Fronwn chart and send me a tme stamp. I have my Grandson on this project.
Ps. I have my Cardiologist , my Dental Hygienist learning how to trade with the above two (2) charts also.
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Bought some more TQQQ today at $60.70, set stop at $58.27, want to keep this tight because it’s a leveraged etf.
Andy
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One more thing. Tetter Totter is what Quill calls opposite positioning trade. Where you take an etf and trade something like the Tqqq on the way up and then when it runs out switch to Sqqq. You just keep doing that. I have had trouble in the past keeping it going but I think I have a better understanding now.
Andy
@Quillnpenn thanks, I am getting closer. A question about using two types of charts.
The simple OHLC chart has a 200dma and 20dma. What rules to you have regarding that?
- Never buy unless price is above 20dma?
- Always sell when price falls below 20dma.
- 20dma must be above 200dma?
Andy,
re: Teeter Tottering for POSITIVE CA$h FLOW at all times.
ree: Caution
For the moment becareful if you have enough " Available for withdrawl" before making a trade otherwise the SEC police will yell at you as a warning or they will suspend you for 90 days. I got yelled at twiece for not understanding the SEC rules.
ex…If you sold a stock on Monday, Cash will be available on Wednesday or T + 2
Now, as of May 28th, 2024, There will be a New T + 1
ex…If you sold a stock on Monday, Cash will be available on Tuesday etc. etc. the holidays will mess you by a day.
Quill -
ps. Still Swing Trade SPXL / SPXS. After a target has been hit. Start all over.
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Thanks Quill I appreciate it. I think the most important thing you have taught me is about risk and knowing what I should accept. So now before going in with a trade I always write down Where I want to get out if it goes against me. Depending on the trade I usually set my stops 4 to 7 percent below the price I get in at.
Andy
re: 20 ema xover 200 ema.
Peter, what you ar describing is qick petty cash trading
re: The 20 ema is like a magnet. The prices don’t drift to far away from home (20 ema). Some use the popular 50 ema. Notice they don’t go far away.
Which is better SMA or EMA? I prefer EMA’s
With moving averages in general, the longer the time period, the slower it is to react to price movement. But with all else being equal, an EMA will track price more closely than an SMA. Because of this, the exponential moving average is typically considered more appropriate for short-term trading.
Why use SMA over EMA?
Many shorter-term traders use EMAs because they want to be alerted as soon as the price is moving the other way. Longer-term traders tend to rely on SMAs since these investors aren’t rushing to act and prefer to be less actively engaged in their trades. Ultimately, it comes down to personal preference.
Please pay attention to the candlesticks that close above or below the 20-day and 200-day EMAs, as they indicate a shift in the market momentum. When the 20-day EMA (yellow line) crosses above the 200-day EMA (white line), it signals a bullish trend, meaning that the buyers are dominating the market
What Is the Common Period Used for EMA Calculations?
The longer-day EMAs of 50 and 200 days tend to be used by long-term investors, while short-term investors tend to use 8- and 20-day EMAs.
for fun the following is the the cover sheet with all kinds of options to play with when you first call up Barchart. Your going to see that Barchart does all the work for you . Through a dart and see what happens.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations1.
- Find 20 day moving average
- click on # of new buys
- ex. today is 265 stocs.
- besides throwing darts,
- kruz on down and find any 100% stock unddr the Opinion column
- then at the far right click on the chart check off
6a. Pull the trigger at any time to buy the stock.
Suprise - the recommended charts are done for you.
- use the Flip charts at the top.
- repeat the process all over for the 20 over 300 or per haps 20 over 50 wahat some traders like to use.
Have fun on the project
Quill -
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@Quillnpenn Thanks for the big dump, but I am trying to focus on learning SimonSez 3 by asking questions. I don’t think this relates to that. You are teaching your 10 year old grandchild to trade with SimonSez 3 so I just want to understand what he understands. Also, don’t confuse my other IBD threads with what I am trying to learn here. I will be using multiple methods until I am convinced SimonSez is the one true approach for me.
So, why do you use 2 charts, one HA and one OHLC. I thought the HA chart was all that was needed. So why do you use the OHLC chart? What are the things on the OHLC that help you decide to buy or sell?
Thanks,
Pete
For my own edification, the rule is sell on the first red day after the chart prints the frowny face? Thanks, and nice run.
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Pete I should have sold Yesterday when the Yellow line crossed the blue but it was still a green DOJI. Since Doji’s signify indecision I held but when the red bar came up today it showed the downtrend.
In a Perfect world you are correct. The green bar would have showed the frown face and then the next days bar would be red with the yellow line crossing above the blue signaling a sell signal.
Now I wait for the red bars to have a smiley face and the next bar to turn green with the blue line going back above the yellow.
Thanks
Andy
So looking at Simon sez and comparing it to IBD method. It looks like Simon Sez is a faster and better indicator than IBD. Simon will get you in and out of the market faster so you are more nimble. But IBD will save you too in the long run from having a deep draw down on your portfolio. Both of them are good but it just matters how much time you want to spend on your portfolio. If you are indexing then IBD is a great indicator. Or if you want to be more of a long term mindset, then IBD is fine. But if you want to keep more of your money and don’t want much of a loss, or grow your money faster then Simon is far superior.
To prove my point take Simon Sez and the S&P500 against any time in the market and then Put up IBD and look at the same time in the market. Watch what happens in the time line. This made everything that Quill is doing with Simon very clear. It was like watching a feather weight boxing against a heavy weight.
But it even been more clear why just buying and holding was a bad idea. It was like standing in a ring and letting someone just whale on you.
Andy
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I can’t disagree with you, good traders can probably make a lot of money both ways, but it seems SimonSez is “super simple” and it does not require a lot of time and expertise. My plan is to have an open mind and try SimonSez. I like a challenge and I like learning new things, but in the end, it should be about maximizing risk-based returns. Using the teeter-totter pairs seems safe, but I can’t know how black swan events will impact that or CANSLIM. I will be doing both for a while and interacting here so share experiences and lessons learned.
You can’t compare IBD to S&P, IBD is a method for selecting great growth stocks. There is no IBD index of fund that can measure its success. The success is in you. How well do you follow the rules? How well do you find the strongest stocks and how well do you determine you have a winner that you should hold for a 400% run in two years, or 11,377% run in 8 years (e.g. NVDA breakout of 3/16/216). IBD is a lot of work, that is for sure and I am not sure I want to dedicate that time forever, even it is a stimulating challenge.
This isn’t about comparing what method is better Pete just an observation. But even IBD says that a simplest plan is the best. So having more rules and more tools that you are using, doesn’t mean its better, in fact it might be worse. Everything I read on trading and everyone I listen to, the very best, all say keep it simple.
But that doesn’t mean don’t use the method you prefer. I personally think that both methods are great. IBD is excellent for hand holding and stock selection but Simon Sez is great for getting you in and out for more profit. Personally I think I will be marrying them both. I find a lot of value in IBD but I find a lot of value in Simon Sez now also.
How well do you find the strongest stocks and how well do you determine you have a winner that you should hold for a 400% run in two years, or 11,377% run in 8 years (e.g. NVDA breakout of 3/16/216). IBD is a lot of work, that is for sure and I am not sure I want to dedicate that time forever, even it is a stimulating challenge.
Now this part is interesting because if you actually follow the IBD rules you will never hold a stock for 8 years. That would be more of a motley fool approach, never sell. Even a run for 400 percent would be hard following IBD rules. That is what I found so interesting about Simon Sez and IBD and the Motley Fool. The Fool says hold forever and take a beating in up and down. IBD says hold till you hit the 50 day and then get out, some even say if the 21 day drops below the 50 day get out. Simon Sez follow the red and green bars. Get out when the green bar has a smiley face and the next one is red or if the yellow line crosses the blue.
But here is where the light bulb really comes on. IBD says don’t worry about selling because you can always get back in if you get shaken out. I just saw a video today where they said that.
Well if it is true for IBD than doesn’t it have to be true for Simon Sez also?
Like I said, I am not arguing that one technique is better than another, I am just making an observation that Simone Sez if faster than IBD. But like I said I also find a lot of value in IBD. But Simone will probably give you a lot more head fakes also but you can always buy back. But Simon Sez will not find you the best stocks in the market, that would be IBD’s role. But like Mr. Bollinger said on one of the IBD video’s I saw just recently. You might not want to do things like I do them you have to do them the way that works best for you. I plan on being more flexible in the future. Not every plan is a good plan.
Andy
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