"The Simple Simon Trading Method."

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                                              "The Simple Simon Trading Method."

Simon III and company will make you a wealthy person over time by learning Risk and Money Management skills.

See Simon Sez III below

re: Swing Trading
re: Stockcharts
re: Barchart
re: Price Label
re: 999 to 1000 percent batting average
re: TinyURL.com - shorten that long URL into a tiny URL changes all day.

So What Is Swing Trading?

Swing trading is the buying and selling of stocks all within the timeframe of a few days or several weeks. It’s a lot like day trading except for the timeframe. After each buy and sell cycle, your slate is clean with no carry-over. It’s the opposite of passive, low-maintenance investing. Swing trading is active short-term investing because the “buy and hold” mantra does not apply.

Simon Sez III. “Wait-one bar” after Price label to Price label rule signal per Simon’s Werld® by Quillnpenn revised 12/1/2020.

Re: New ACP stock charts via Stockcharts.com for subscribers or non-subscribers. To see charts in full detail, you might have to be a subscriber.

Re: COST - ACP | StockCharts.com - - - Cash Cow. One can retire on just this one stock.
Re: HD - ACP | StockCharts.com - - - Cash Cow. One can retire on just this second stock as well.
re: $ETHUSD daily - https://schrts.co/VrxWsRmD- - - Let Simon tell you what to do with Patience and Discipline.
re: $ETHUSD 4 hour - ACP | StockCharts.com

When a Price label appears to do the following:

1 ) For the TOP Price Label, we wait and wait until the next bar when the price drops below the high signal to SELL the stock to help protect your ASSets.

2 ) For the BOTTOM Price Label, we wait and wait until the next bar when the Price bar is rising upwards to BUY the stock.

For the very first time when viewing a chart, the default will appear, however, make some minor adjustments for a better view. When the Setup procedure is complete (see way below), the charts will always pop correctly thereafter.

Cheat Sheet:

Class - Simon Sez III - Holy Grail

Holy Grail: “Something that people want very much, but which is very
difficult or impossible to achieve”. Like getting a hole-in-one on a golf course.

Okay now for the Holy Grail part of having fun without really trying.
I believe we can make money with the aid of Simon. If NOT, you get detention for failing to read and review the two (2) simple rules.

The Rules:

Here are the following rules that I found so far broken into two (2)
parts. TOP and BOTTOM.

To SELL @

TOP: When you see the Price label = Wait-one bar rule applies to SELL to help protect your ASSets.

When you see the RED Candle, GREEN Candlestick BELOW the Price label (centered) = SELL immediately when it appears.

To BUY @

BOTTOM: When you see the Price label = Wait-one bar rule applies to BUY.

When you see the GREEN Candle, RED Candlestick ABOVE the Price label (Centered) = BUY immediately when it appears.

I am using the Daily and the 30-minute charts to make money faster. 4-hour chart for the cryptos all day long.

These charts are good for swing trading and for long-term investments such as the XL’s (xle, xlc, xlf, et.,al) to hold and trade forever since 1999. Includes Dividends at the end of each QUARTER eg…3-6-9-12. Stocks must be bought before the ex-dividend date. NOT on, but before the date to get the dividend checks thereafter.

XLK Snapshot - The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund XLK - Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund.

Snapshot - All Sector SPDR ETFs have been swing trading the XLs since January 1999 with a 999 to 1000 percent batting average.

These charts are perfect for Tetter Tottering via the MDP (Million Dollar Portfolio) eg…SPXL / SPXS : QQQ / PSQ.

The Teeter Totter Principle is all about using a “seesaw” to balance your Nest Egg’s cash and investments.

eg. . . . . ACP | StockCharts.com
. . . . . . . ACP | StockCharts.com
. . . . . . . ACP | StockCharts.com

Note with the above as a sample POSITIVE CASH FLOW. We would have sold TBT and bought TLT per Simon Sez rules as noted above.

                                          INVERSE
            DDM - Default Style	DDM / DXD	
	DGP - Default Style	DGP / DZZ	
	DIA - Default Style	DIA 	
	DIG - Default Style	DIG / DUG	
	DPK - Default Style	DPK / DZK	
	DRN - Default Style	DRN / DRV	
	DRV - Default Style	DRV / DRN	
	DUG - Default Style	DUG / DIG	
	DUST - Default Style	DUST/ NUGT	
	DXD - Default Style	DXD / DDM	
	DZK - Default Style	DZK / DPK	
	DZZ - Default Style	DZZ / DGP	
	EDC - Default Style	EDC / EDZ 	
	EDZ - Default Style	EDZ / EDC	
	ERX - Default Style	ERX / ERY	
	ERY - Default Style	ERY / ERX	
	FAS - Default Style	FAS / FAZ	
	FAZ - Default Style	FAZ / FAS	
	FXE - Default Style	FXE / 	
	GASL - Default Style	GASL/ GASX	
	GASX - Default Style	GASX/ GASL	
	GLD - Default Style	GLD / UGL	
	GLL - Default Style	GLL / UGL	
	IYR - Default Style	IYR / 	
	KBE - Default Style	KBE	
	MIDU - Default Style	MIDU/ MIDZ	
	MIDZ - Default Style	MIDZ/ MIDU	
	NUGT - Default Style	NUGT/ DUST	
	QID - Default Style	QID / QLD	
	QLD - Default Style	QLD / QID	
	QQQ - Default Style	QQQ / PSQ	
	SDOW - Default StyleSDOW/ UDOW	
	SDS - Default Style	SDS / SSO	
	SH - Default Style	SH  / SPY / SJB	
	SKF - Default Style	SKF / UYG	
	SLV - Default Style	SLV / 	
	SMH - Default Style	SMH	
	SMN - Default Style	SMN / UYM	
	SOXL - Default Style	SOXL/ SOXS	
	SOXS - Default Style	SOXS/SOXL	
	SPXL - Default Style	SPXL/ SPXS	
	SPXS - Default Style	SPXS/ SPXL	
	SPY - Default Style	SPY / SH / UPRO/ SJB
	SQQQ - Default Style	SQQQ/ TQQQ	
	SRS - Default Style	SRS / URE	
	SSG - Default Style	SSG / USD	
	SSO - Default Style	SSO / SDS	
	TECL - Default Style	TECL/ TECS	
	                        TLT / TBF / TBT
            TECS - Default Style	TECS/ TECL	
	TMF - Default Style	TMF / TMV	
	TMV - Default Style	TMV / TMF	
	TNA - Default Style	TNA / TZA	
	TQQQ - Default Style	TQQQ/ SQQQ	
	TVIX - VelocitySharesTVIX/ 	
	TYD - Default Style	TYD / TYO	
	TYO - Default Style	TYO / TVD	
	TZA - Default Style	TZA / TNA	
	UDN - Default Style	UDN / UUP	
	UDOW - Default StyleUDOW/ SDOW	
	UGL - Default Style	UGL / GLL	
	URE - Default Style	URE / SRS	
	USD - Default Style	USD / SSG	
	UUP - Default Style	UUP / UDN	
	UYG - Default Style	UYG / SKF	
	UYM - Default Style	UYM / SMN	
	XLB - Default Style	XLB / 	
	YANG - Default Style	YANG/ YINN	
	YINN - Default Style	YINN/ YANG	
	ZIV - VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX Medium Term ETN	ZIV

Quillnpenn -

p.s. One other thought would be the PettyCa$h as a Kamikaze play using Simon’s different rules for Six or fewer days.

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So What Is Swing Trading?

Swing trading is the buying and selling of stocks all within the timeframe of a few days or several weeks. It’s a lot like day trading except for the timeframe. After each buy and sell cycle, your slate is clean with no carry-over. It’s the opposite of passive, low-maintenance investing. Swing trading is active short-term investing because the “buy and hold” mantra does not apply.

Quill,

Much thanks for posting an explanation of your ‘Simon Sez III’ trading method and philosophy. Predictably, I’d present it a different way.

You say, “…Swing trading is active short-term investing…”.

So, which is it? Is swing trading ‘trading’ or is it ‘investing’? Or are those two terms distinctions without a meaningful difference? Also, what --really-- is the difference between ‘day trading’ and ‘swing trading’? If one’s entry/exit rules aren’t clock-driven, but are controlled by price levels, how does a typical intra-day trade differ from a typical intra-week or intra-month trade? Obviously, they don’t differ. The only thing that an avowed “day trader” will do that is different from a professed “swing trader” is that the former (typically) won’t carry positions overnight. But even they make exceptions to that self-imposed rule, as some of the trading greats, e.g., Linda Raschke, freely admit.

In short, labels don’t matter. Results do. If positions are being put on and taken off in a consistent, discipled manner that --on average-- offers a positive expectancy, then time-frames don’t matter, be they seconds or decades, because --as Mandelbrot has demonstrated-- market time is fractal. But if you want to call yourself a swing trader, than just a trader, go for it.

A

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Quill,

I love you dearly, because your method really is the best trading system out there accessible to beginners. However your explanations of it suck.

On the theory that “A picture is worth a thousand words”, here is the essence of Simon (any version) in two charts. The first is DIS. The second is the ETF that tracks sugar.

Dis
Dis1206×419 42.4 KB

Cane
Cane1244×466 42.3 KB

Now come some realities.

Yesterday’s market can’t be bought, only tomorrow’s. Thus, the would-be trader --or investor-- is always working at the “hard, right-hand edge” of the chart where what will happen next has to be guessed at. Hence, what is needed to be seen in the chart before a position can be put on is enough evidence that the downward trend --if one is going long-- has truly been reversed. Ditto for selling short.

However, one’s exit rules --or covering rules-- don’t need to be the reverse of one’s entry rules. Rather than use the "Wait One’ rule to exit, I’ll exit on the least hint of trouble. That means that --often-- money gets left on the table. However, exiting fast also means that profits are locked in and losses kept small. So, it’s Chef’s Choice about how much evidence has to be seen before actions are taken.

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Quill,

Here’s some more commentary on your opening post, as much to help me to understand it as anyone else.

You make use of the High/Low price markers that BarCharts optionally inserts into charts. [Note: they can be turned off/on by selecting “Settings” and then “Symbol” in the chart header.]

BC inserts one ‘High’ marker and one ‘Low’ maker per lookback period, and the marker positions change as the chart is advanced or scrolled back in time. That can be disconcerting, so much so, I often will turn them off. But if one just wants to trade high probability setups, they should be used, for this reason.

The Simon method is a bet on ‘mean reversion’ rather than ‘momentum’ (which is what the G BoyZ base their trading method on. Regrettably, they do a poor job of it.) If a particular day’s price really is the low for the low-back period, the odds are that the downward trend has run its course and that traders/investors/bargain-hunters/bottom-fishers will step in to buy. That doesn’t mean the the marked low isn’t a head fake and that prices won’t go lower the next day. In fact, they often do. Hence, the "Wait One’ rule whose application still doesn’t guarantee that prices won’t retest the low. But applying the rule helps to filter out some of the retests.

Now comes some trading realities. Having done the ‘Wait One’ and having gotten a confirmed ‘Buy’ signal, do you put on the whole of your intended position, or do you scale in as the market confirms your entry was correct?

There’s no one right answer to that question about position-sizing, and there are a dozen ways to scale in. Stan Weinstein suggests this. If you consider yourself to be an “investor”, then wait for a pull-back and put on the whole of your position then. If you consider yourself a ‘trader’, put on half the position as soon as you get a confirmed 'Buy" signal and the other half after the pullback (if it happens). Another person, “the Phantom of the Pits”, scales in 3-2-1 and then starts looking where to get out. So, position-sizing, scaling, and entry-timing are all “Chef’s Choice”. But whatever rule set you do settle on, what seems to matter toward long-term success is consistency and discipline.

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The charts you are introducing belong to the Simon Sez II family with two (2) very simplistic rules. That’s it. Nothing fancy nor complicated and to the point according to Simon Sez.

Simon Sez II. “Wait-one bar ARC to ARC” rule signal **

Re: Barchart.com

When an ARC aka Smiley Face appears do the following:

1 ) For the TOP ARC, we wait and wait until the next day when the price drops below the high signal to SELL the stock.

2 ) For the BOTTOM ARC, we wait and wait until the next day when the price bar is rising upwards to BUY the stock.

eg…QQQ - Nasdaq QQQ Invesco ETF Interactive Chart - Barchart.com a BUY signal occurred on 10/04/19. We are now waiting for the next SELL signal.

For the very first time when viewing a chart, the default will go to Frequency: Daily 6 months. You can change the months to 2M or 1M or any time period that will make you comfortable when viewing the Chart.

Note the following uses OHLC ( chef’s choice) and the Parabolic time/price (SAR) has been added to trade per the GREEN (buy) and RED (sell) dots. Lots of practice is needed to completely understand the flow.

Some traders like to use the Heikin - Ashi bars

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Let’s peruse the following at your leisure. Welcome any thoughts

Have been a Swing Trader for over 48 years.

Swing Trading vs Day Trading. = Swing Trading: What It Is and the Pros and Cons for Investors

Introduction to Swing Trading

Simon Sez III is bulletproof and very close to the Holy Grail of Swing Trading.

I have two(2) nieces who had a stock market project way back in 6th grade and need help from the GOAT.
I have also a 9-year-old grandson who is now having classes on how to Invest in the stock market and wants to be a Corporate Attorney working 60-hour weeks like his RICH GRAND DAD:o)) instead of being a Swing Trader working only about 2 hours a day like his POOR GRAND DAD;o(( if there is anything to do per Simon Sez.

I introduced them to Simons II and III as simply as possible with two (2) simple rules. They can’t muddle it up or it is DETENTION time. The rules can be written on the back of a Business card or on the I-phone in the NOTES section.

They are now in 9th grade and earning a little over 6 figures under the supervision of their parents.

Primary is the Tetter Totter principle so long as there is a stock market with SPXL / SPXS and another pair from the list introduced a few days ago. The only time they have is during homeroom, lunchtime, and when they get home around 3 pm. It only takes 10 minutes of their time and is done with either a WAIT - BUY - SELL signal.

Next, they have to build a six-pack portfolio of stocks via Simon Sez III to be traded forever. HD - COST - CELH - CAR - V - VOO. or a choice from Ellevest.com’s matrix.

In their Quiver are Future projects that will be the Dividend portfolio (let the money work for them and not the inverse) via M1Finance.com, and the 2. 5 percent theory or the 10 percent theory to swing trading with patience and discipline.

COST, Costco Wholesale - Stock Investment Research, IBD Stock Charts - Investors.com is another type of chart.

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Quill,

You wrote, “The charts you are introducing belong to the Simon Sez II family with two (2) very simplistic rules. That’s it. Nothing fancy nor complicated and to the point according to Simon Sez.”

I was going to ask how you distinguish Simon I from Simon II from Simon III. But then I decided that it just doesn’t matter, because I trade my own version, thusly.

ilf
ilf1287×671 68.3 KB

.
Didn’t trade today. Just wasn’t in the mood, which caused me to spend a couple hours trying to decide how much effort I want to put into this trading stuff. The conclusion I keep coming to is that I’m not willing to do the work required to manage its risks, which is why I like bonds. Unlike stocks, they really are “buy 'em and forget 'em” instruments, and on a risk-adjusted the basis, they offer the same money, or else the arbs step in to make it so.

For sure, risk-adjusted returns don’t spend any better at the grocery store or gas pumps than absolute returns. But they let me me sleep at night or walk away from markets for weeks at a time when I have more important things to do, like building boats.

For sure, stock trading can be fun. But it’s just 5% of my portfolio, not the whole of it, and I need to keep that fact in mind and to allocate my time and research efforts accordingly.

Arindam

IMGP0216
IMGP02161024×768 193 KB

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Ok Arindam thanks, So when would you have jumped in and when would you have gotten out on both of those charts?

Andy

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Andy,

The two charts you’re asking about (for DIS and CANE) show the same setup, done exactly as Quill is now charting, with the exception (of course, ROTFL) of some minor details, such as the number of MAs , their type and their lookback, and the fact he clutters the main panel with SAR and adds a second panel with MACD or TSI and the fact I don’t usually mark the lookback lows and high. (The arcs in the chart.)

But here’s where we agree. When the trend has changed, the bar colors will change, and prices will cross over the MAs. Thus, in the chart for CANE, there was a look-back low on Oct 30, but no confirmation the following day. So, do nothing. The next day after that, the bar turns from red to green and prints above the trailing MAs.

Bingo! We’ve now got a solid ‘Buy’ signal that nonetheless must wait for confirmation, which does happen the following day. Therefore, buy CANE at the open the day following that and start looking where to get out, which is just the reversal of the process of getting in.

If trading off of daily bars seems too frantic for you, then switch to weekly bars. The total money gained should be the same or better, because market time is fractal , as Mandelbrot has demonstrated, and because longer time-frames tend to filter out some of the hysteria and noise that obscures the informational value of what’s really driving prices, which is fundamentals.

Arindam

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Thanks Arindam. I appreciate your help