Andy, it is annoying to pollute threads with other subjects and I try hard not to. Stocks being above a 50dma is a very common trader attribute, not at a limited to IBD. Like you, I may try to Marry IBD with SimonSez. I am going to see if using SimonSez on strong stocks building the righ side of a base will help me get in early to ride a breakout and then get me out fast if things deteriorate before the breakout. It will still be SimonSez rules, just on a subset of stocks of my choosing. In reality, you canât look at 5000 stocks to find a SimonSez candidate, so you have to have some filters above the buy sell triggers.
Look forward to discussing my approach when it is in place.
The IBD20 is an excellent âcandidates poolâ from which you can apply either SimonSez or 21dEMA filter. IBD20 evolves fairly quickly, but I found that even 1 or 2 years old IBD lists are still excellent pools of stocks to chose from
bridgewater
I get it Pete and after writing that I rethought what I was saying because it is all helpful. I am starting to form the opinion that Simon Sez would be best used in a downturn or choppy market. But when you are in a power trend it might be best to stick just with IBD. My thoughts are that IBD will keep you in strong stocks in a strong market and Simon will keep you out of trouble in a bad market. Still trying to get a handle on this but That is why I sold my TQQQ for a 6 percent gain and put it into Alkt and MNDY.
@buynholdisdead Andy, I have my Barchart.com account and set it up per your interpretation of Quillâs settings. Please review and recreate same to verify they match. I used green and red TSI so it was easier to remember buy/sell for an old dummy like me
That looks good Pete. Letâs go back to April 23rd. You see how your green line went above your red? Then it stays above the red until May 22nd? Well if you look at May 21st you will see that it also was red but a really small bar. That is called a Doji. So really you have two red bars. So my rule would be that as soon as the green line went under the red I would have to sell. Even though there wasnât a smiley face. But the two red bars confirm the sell. Now Quill is the expert on this so hopefully he will chime in also. Here is to confirm that your chart looks like mine.
Pete,
quill had 2 sets of simon sez rules. One had 20,2 while the other had 15,2 which is where that difference is coming from I bet. I have set up the two differing simon sez templates on my barchart setup but I donât remember what the difference isâŚdoc
Doc has it right Pete, I am trying to see what changing Par will do if it will change the way I look at the chart. Trying to get as close to where the chart actually changes. I have even taken Par completely off because I do not really use it to make any decisions. But by removing it the chart looked too empty if that makes sense. The real part of the chart to me is the bars and the TSI.
One more thing Pete, Set your stops tight like 3 percent. Charlie had good advice. You might be wrong 5 out of 7 times but a tight stop will allow you not to lose to much. The 2 times you win could be a huge win. But I still say if you think this is a strong market, and I do, it is better to stick with IBD method until it turns down.
Also, when I pull up a watchlist and try to use the Flipcharts, the chart shows 6 months instead of the 2 months in my template. Also, that flipchart only allows me to choose from the drop down list, which does not have a 2 month option. Do you use that flipchart feature that @Quillnpenn likes?
Made my first buy today on ELF. It was down after earnings last night but jumped above 50dma this morning. At 10am it was still looking solid.
SimonSez the smiley face was a couple days ago,
SimonSez this is the first green bar after smiley face
SimonSez the HA candlestick just went above my blue MATriangle(5).
SimonSez the green TSI went above the red TSI
SimonSez the DPO(5) confirms.
SimonSez this is out of the gate and a buy?
PeteSez this kind of jump makes me more vulnerable to a 3% stop loss, but I am not putting on a hard stop at the moment.
The flipcharts come from how you built your many types of charts.
If you see a different month, go to the upper left-hand corner and after the ticker symbol, click on the first gray box which you can change. I believe it defaults to 6M at first glance. If you change it, you are going to get cranky. Otherwise get out and call up your chart and change to your favorite timetable.
Buying and Selling from this type of chart as follows:
Standby: meaning we wait for the next day to Buy or Sell.
Buying: Buy the first Green Bar AFTER the Smiley Face.
Selling: Sell the next bar after the Frown Face at the top.
Note: you must have at least two (2) smiley faces on the chart as you drag the chart to the left or to the right as you jamb the chart to the wall.
Note: this chart is the is the closest to the Holy Grail of trading on autopilot decision making. We have yet to lose a dyme.
3 percent below your buy price, you can make it even tighter if you like. The goal is not to lose money. So never buy until you see the smiley face on the bottom on the red bars then when the first green bar shows up you are in. Then you are going along and the frowny face shows up you wait till the first red bar shows up and then sell. The reason you wait for the first red bar is because it could stay green with the frowny face for awhile as it goes up. The exception to that is I sell if the blue line(green) goes under the yellow line(red). The reason I do that is because I am not going to get greedy but want to be cautious and save capital. Also I like having my tsi line a different color so it stands out from the bars. Since I use the TSI and Bars really exclusively and that is what is important to me.
Yes the Flipcharts are great. So now that you have your charts set up and named look to the left of the screen and go down to site preferences and click that. You have 5 settings you can go through to set up flipcharts and others. The one for flipcharts is charts so click on that, go to use chart template and make sure the chart you want to use is in the box, if it isn;t hit the toggle switch and pick your chart.
Now when you go into flipcharts you should see to the top right Mode / Your chart name / Multicharts.
When looking to the left you will see it still say 6M but if you go down to the bottom of the chart you will see that it is only 2 months if that is how you set up your template.
Donât be afraid to set up your own rules when you find something that isnât working for you. Also add other things to your chart if they will help you gain an edge.
To me Pete that looks good where you bought. Itâs ok to be wrong the name of the game, In my mind, is limiting your losses and maximizing your gains. So donât be afraid to sell.
@Quillnpenn thank you very much for the mentoring so far, now that I am getting real, I am going have more detailed questions so I can be sure I am understanding the rules. Please review the following chart and my notes and see if I am on track. thanks.
*MAT(5) is the 5 day triangular Moving Average you say to use as the buy/sell signal. I just wanted mine t blue because I thought the TSI would be overlaying the same main pane of the chart and I wanted those red/green so my little brain could decode buy/sell crossovers easier.
A: Smiley face, wait for go sign
A1: first green bar, but under MAT(5), buy or wait?
A2: Green bar above MAT(5), buy.
B:would have a frowny face in real-time, so wait
B1: first red bar and close below MAT(5), sell
C: would have a smiley face in real-time. Wait
C1: first green bar and first above MAT(5)
D: second red bar after a high, closed slightly below MAT(5), so sell? But TSI does not have a confirming crossover, so hold?
E: back above MAT(5) so buy if you sold at D?
F: first red bar after a high, but not below MAT(5) so hold. TSI is fused, but not crossed-over.
G: Frowny face, but wait. Every new high will have a frowny face, so just wait and watch.
Itâs interesting to me that Quill will say something like the TSI didnât cross over so donât but then on his charts he doesnât mention it. He uses TSI but its not in the rule set. Iâm not picking at Quill, just learning and that is the thing that Charlie was consistently pointing out - that Quill has an experience base that we donât have (guessing). TSI is important as a confirming indicator is just my opinion. Great workin this post Pete. Itâs very educationalâŚdoc
I agree Doc and I think itâs important to keep rules. I like the tsi line as much as the candlesticks. While Quill might stay in where I would get out and make less I think itâs important to know what you donât know. Since I am very new to all this itâs better to make a little than lose a lot.
Today got a smiley face, it was a green doji that was just below the 5dma-T. TSI and DPO have crossed over to buy territory. I donât think it is a buy today, but if green and above the blue line tomorrow, it is âout of the gateâ, right?
What HA bars are good for is suggesting what the current and longer term trends might be. They suck majorly in fast markets.
Second point. TSI --like all indicators-- comes with default parameters which were created by the indictorâs inventor on the basis of some back-testing and shrewd guessing. Thus the indicator does a reasonable job --most of the timeâof identifying turning points. But faster and slower version can be created, and they might be what is needed for specific securities or in specific market conditions.
Next. There are âdojisâ, and then there are dojis. In fact, at least four versions, all of which make different predictions, and all of which can often require following day confirmation. (The best intro to Candle Pattern Analysis is by Greg Morris.)
In one sense, thereâs no material diff between âinvestingâ and âtradingâ. In another sense, there really is. Investors typically react to an establish ongoing trend. hence, they tend to be a bit late getting in and out, but they donât suffer the false starts and whipsaws that plague âtradersâ. Traders, OTOH, donât react to a trend, They try to anticipate one. Thus, a trader who had been following SARK closely would have noticed on the 16th the action with StochRSI as it broke above the oversold line. When prices closed above the MA pair on the 29, he knew the trade was a GO! and would have been buying at the open on the following day, gaining a small profit that would have become a bit profit today, big enough that the prudent move would have been to exit at the close, because who knows what will happen tomorrow?
My suggestion? If youâre going to trade, then trade. If âinvestâ, then invest. Donât try to mix the methods, as Weinstein advises. Be one or the other and know which is which.
