We started off strong during this first trading day of the new year. Our portfolio was up 3% today, thanks to 5% surges upwards in APP and CRDO, plus 4% up moves in FOUR and WGS. No news on any of these.
I think investors in FOUR are warming up to the idea that the CEO leaving to run NASA won’t hurt the company, because the board can find an equally talented replacement.
Our portfolio gained another 1.7% today on no news. It’s crazy that we’re up 4.7% in the first 2 trading days of the new year. The Nasdaq broke above its 50-day moving average today, so the environment is good for trend following / swing trading strategies.
After today’s market rally, we’re already up almost 8% year-to-date, with the year having started only 3 trading days ago! Huge amount of buying action in the stocks we currently own, and an extremely strong start in the new year.
WGS rallied 13% today, and has now decisively broken above its 50-day MA. CRDO, another recent purchase, was up almost 6% today.
Meanwhile, analysts at Jeffries have raised their price target on META to $715. And Wedbush has raised their pt on AMZN to $260, and added it to their best ideas list for 2025.
We have left our Southern Cal road trip and flown to Cabo San Lucas for a one-week getaway. My wife and I are trying to teach Sim 1 the cha-cha-cha, he seems to be getting the hang of it 
| Start date | Sim1 Return | S&P 500 Return |
|---|---|---|
| 9/4/2024 | 29.7% | 8.1% |
Current holdings
| Ticker | Return | Name | Position size | Buy date | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 26.5% | Amazon.com Inc | 8.8% | 9/11/2024 | |
| FOUR | 39.4% | Shift4 Payments Inc | 10.8% | 9/4/2024 | |
| META | 22.1% | Meta Platforms Inc | 9.2% | 9/4/2024 | |
| ONON | 21.1% | On Holding AG | 9.3% | 9/4/2024 | |
| TTD | 22.8% | Trade Desk Inc | 9.5% | 9/4/2024 | |
| APP | 169.7% | Applovin Corp | 14.0% | 10/2/2024 | |
| CRDO | 9.8% | Credo Technology | 10.1% | 12/18/24 | |
| WGS | 16.4% | GeneDx Holdings Corp | 10.8% | 11/8/2024 | |
| Cash | 17.6% | ||||
| Total | 29.7% | 100.0% |
Despite the Nasdaq falling almost 2% today, our portfolio only declined 1.3%. That’s because WGS bucked the trend and actually rose over 8% today. WGS is now up over 26% since our purchase in early November.
This helped counteract the 7% decline in APP today. Should we trim or sell APP now? Nope, because its price is still above its 50-day moving average. So no sell rules were triggered today.
Now that I have been posting about this mechanical swing trading system for 4 months, I hope you understand the mental mindset required to execute it. That’s one of the most important factors in any investing strategy.
This system may not be compatible with your emotions, and that’s perfectly OK with me. If you have an asset allocation and a strategy that works for YOU, I respect that, because it works for YOUR mindset.
-Ron
Please remind me where the backtested and then the actual results going forward are of this over time, since I have forgotten.
There’s no backtest, as far as I am aware. As I mentioned in my post below, this system is based on observations about “superperformance” stocks by market wizards like William O’Neill (founder of IBD), Stan Weinstein, Jesse Livermore, Paul Tudor Jones, David Ryan and Mark Minervini (the latter two won the US Investing Championship multiple times).
We were down 4% this week, but we’re up +4% since Jan 1, compared to a YTD decline of -0.9% for the S&P 500. Overall, we’re still up 26% since we started in Sep 4, compared to the market being up 5.4% over the same period.
I’m pretty happy with these results so far, but anything can happen in the near term. That’s why we have sell rules based on moving averages and stop losses on our stocks.
Here’s where we stand today.
| Start date | Sim1 Return | S&P 500 Return |
|---|---|---|
| 9/4/2024 | 26.0% | 5.4% |
Current holdings
| Ticker | Return | Name | Position size | Buy date | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 21.6% | Amazon.com Inc | 8.7% | 9/11/2024 | |
| FOUR | 36.6% | Shift4 Payments Inc | 10.9% | 9/4/2024 | |
| META | 19.3% | Meta Platforms Inc | 9.3% | 9/4/2024 | |
| ONON | 25.5% | On Holding AG | 9.9% | 9/4/2024 | |
| TTD | 15.3% | Trade Desk Inc | 9.2% | 9/4/2024 | |
| APP | 142.0% | Applovin Corp | 12.9% | 10/2/2024 | |
| CRDO | 5.7% | Credo Technology | 10.0% | 12/18/24 | |
| WGS | 16.1% | GeneDx Holdings Corp | 11.1% | 11/8/2024 | |
| Cash | 18.1% | ||||
| Total | 26.0% | 100.0% |
Good morning. Trade alert - we are selling our entire position in WGS this morning. The stock has now declined below its 50dma.
Good morning. After yesterday’s sale of WGS, our cash position has risen to 28%, which is pretty high. This morning’s CPI number came in cooler than expected, so it looks like we’re going to get a bounce higher here. We’re still being cautious, since both SPY and QQQ are below their 50-day MAs. However, if we get a rally here and a follow through day, we’ll be looking to put our cash to use.
Nice rally in the market today, which pushed our portfolio up over 2% at the close. This was thanks to a rise of almost 9% in CRDO, and gains of 4% in APP and META. We’re back in the green for the month of January.
Good morning. Trade alert - we are buying CLS (Celestica) this morning. Taking a 10% position. The company offers a range of product manufacturing and related supply chain services, including design and development. The stock is in a Stage 2 uptrend, and the company grew revenues 22% YoY.
At the end of today’s market rally, we’re up 6.1% year-to-date while the market is up 2%. We’re also up 28.1% since we started this robot-driven investing strategy last September 4. The market is up 8.5% in the same period.
Remember, we reported all our buys and sells right here on this board on the same day we executed them. Were you following along? Here’s a chart of our investing performance since inception
Here’s where we stand today.
| Start date | Sim1 Return | S&P 500 Return |
|---|---|---|
| 9/4/2024 | 28.1% | 8.5% |
Current holdings
| Ticker | Return | Name | Position size | Buy date | |
| AMZN | 25.5% | Amazon.com Inc | 8.8% | 9/11/2024 | |
| FOUR | 49.4% | Shift4 Payments Inc | 11.7% | 9/4/2024 | |
| META | 18.7% | Meta Platforms Inc | 9.1% | 9/4/2024 | |
| ONON | 28.5% | On Holding AG | 10.0% | 9/4/2024 | |
| TTD | 20.7% | Trade Desk Inc | 9.4% | 9/4/2024 | |
| APP | 160.1% | Applovin Corp | 13.6% | 10/2/2024 | |
| CRDO | 14.6% | Credo Technology | 10.7% | 12/18/24 | |
| CLS | -1.1% | Celestica Inc | 9.3% | 1/16/2025 | |
| Cash | 17.4% | ||||
| Total | 28.1% | 100.0% |
Recent transactions
| Date | Ticker | Action | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/16/2025 | CLS | Bought | Stage 2 uptrend | |
| 1/14/2025 | WGS | Sold | Fell below 50dma | |
| 12/182024 | CRDO | Bought | Stage 2 uptrend | |
| 12/17/2024 | NVDA | Sold | Fell below stop price | |
| 12/12/2024 | FTAI | Sold | Fell below stop price | |
| 12/9/2024 | APP | Sold 30% of position | Fell below raised stop | |
| 11/19/2024 | FTAI | Bought | Stage 2 uptrend |
The stock market will be closed on Monday in observance of Martin Luther King Day. Sim 1 and I will be grabbing the popcorn and watching a ton of football this weekend. HAGW!
It looks like Sim 1 had the right ideas when he picked CRDO last month and CLS a week ago . Both of these have been benefiting from AI spending, and are up 22% and 8% respectively since our purchase. That’s helped our portfolio gain over 9% year-to-date and is now at an all time high.
We’re now up 31.5% since we started in early September last year. The market is up 10% since then and a little over 3% YTD.
To celebrate our all time high, I’m going to get my robot friend a ticket to an NBA game, and watch it live with him. I know they charge ridiculous prices for the popcorn, but he deserves it
Market seems to have broadened out over the past week to show love to various sectors - which is a good thing. We rode the wave to a weekly gain of 3.8%, which brings our YTD gain up to almost 10%. S&P 500 also having a good Jan, and is up about 3.7%, YTD.
Our total return since inception is now 31.6% which is near an all time high for us. This is thanks to stocks like FOUR, ONON, META and the mighty AMZN all hitting all time highs. And APP has been coasting along near its ATH as well. Meta will announce earnings on Jan 29 and Amazon (ever heard of them?) will be reporting earnings on Feb 6.
Here’s a chart of our portfolio compared to the S&P 500, and our current holdings. HAGW!
| Start date | Sim1 Return | S&P 500 Return |
|---|---|---|
| 9/4/2024 | 31.6% | 10.3% |
| Ticker | Return | Name | Position size | Buy date | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 30.5% | Amazon.com Inc | 8.9% | 9/11/2024 | |
| FOUR | 52.7% | Shift4 Payments Inc | 11.6% | 9/4/2024 | |
| META | 25.4% | Meta Platforms | 9.3% | 9/4/2024 | |
| ONON | 33.3% | On Holding AG | 10.1% | 9/4/2024 | |
| TTD | 16.4% | Trade Desk Inc | 8.9% | 9/4/2024 | |
| APP | 175.9% | Applovin Corp | 14.1% | 10/2/2024 | |
| CRDO | 15.3% | Credo Technology | 10.5% | 12/18/24 | |
| CLS | 6.3% | Celestica Inc | 9.7% | 1/16/2025 | |
| Cash | 16.9% | ||||
| Total | 31.6% | 100.0% |
Trade alert - We are selling both CRDO and CLS this morning because they’ve fallen below our stop loss prices.
We had a nice rebound in our portfolio today after the release of the DeepSeek AI model from China scared investors into thinking that such a cheaply built model would reduce the need for Nvidia GPUs and massive data center buildouts for AI. That caused 20%+ declines in 2 of our holdings - CRDO and CLS - which we had to sell due to our stop loss rules.
But then today, APP, ONON and META came roaring back and AMZN also had a good day. Investors are thinking that if AMZN and META don’t need to spend as much for AI infrastructure as they planned, that will actually help their bottom lines.
The fun will begin tomorrow when META announces earnings after the bell.
After yesterday’s sales, our cash position is at 34%, which is pretty high. QQQ is above both its 50-day MA and 21-day MA, so it’s a good market to be long. Sim 1 and I will be looking for opportunities to put that cash to use. We’re still up 5% YTD, and up 27.1% since we started 5 months ago.
Thanks, @bridgewater . Sim 1 agrees, and we are also back in after that stellar earnings report yesterday.
Trade alert - We are buying CLS (again) today. Taking a 10% position.
Strong gains this morning faded hard by end of day when Trump’s press sec. announced that tariffs against Canada and Mexico would start tomorrow. We still ended the month of January up about 6.7% YTD. I call that a great month.
We repurchased CLS yesterday after their stellar earnings report came out on Wed. The stock proceeded to gain another 8% today. Amazon (ever heard of them?) just closed near a record high. So did META, the other megacap we own. Investors liked META’s earnings report, let’s see what they say when AMZN’s report comes out next Thursday.
At the end of January, our portfolio is now up 28.7% since we started this robot-driven investing journey just 5 months ago. Our equity curve compared to the S&P 500 is shown below. I’ll start a new thread for February. HAGW!
| Start date | Sim1 Return | S&P 500 Return |
|---|---|---|
| 9/4/2024 | 28.7% | 9.2% |
Current holdings
| Ticker | Return | Name | Position size | Buy date | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 32.0% | Amazon.com Inc | 9.2% | 9/11/2024 | |
| FOUR | 56.7% | Shift4 Payments Inc | 12.2% | 9/4/2024 | |
| META | 33.5% | Meta Platforms | 10.2% | 9/4/2024 | |
| ONON | 32.7% | On Holding AG | 10.3% | 9/4/2024 | |
| TTD | 15.1% | Trade Desk Inc | 9.0% | 9/4/2024 | |
| APP | 180.8% | Applovin Corp | 14.6% | 10/2/2024 | |
| CLS | 9.9% | Celestica Inc | 10.9% | ||
| Cash | 23.6% | ||||
| Total | 28.7% | 100.0% |
Recent transactions
| Date | Ticker | Action | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/30/2025 | CLS | Bought | Gap up after earnings | |
| 1/27/2025 | CLS | Sold | Fell below stop loss | |
| 1/27/2025 | CRDO | Sold | Fell below stop loss | |
| 1/16/2025 | CLS | Bought | Stage 2 uptrend | |
| 1/14/2025 | WGS | Sold | Fell below 50dma | |
| 12/182024 | CRDO | Bought | Stage 2 uptrend | |
| 12/17/2024 | NVDA | Sold | Fell below stop price | |
| 12/12/2024 | FTAI | Sold | Fell below stop price |
