Here’s an update on our Sim 1 mechanical swing trading portfolio that I first kicked off in this other thread . I’m starting this new thread for the month of November.
Our portfolio gained 4% during today’s record-setting market rally, and is now up 11.6% since we started just a little over 2 months ago. The S&P 500 is up 7.3% in the same period.
Our winners include APP and FOUR, both of which are up 28% since purchase. In fact, APP just announced stellar earnings results after the bell today, and is up another 28% after hours. MELI also reported earnings which were not that great, and that stock is down about 9% after hours. This is most likely going to be a sell tomorrow. We continue to have our stops in place for risk management. Hope you all also had a good day.
Meli isn’t going to be a stock that goes straight up. They are building out their infrastructure much like Amzn did. So if you have a tight stop on them you really do not want to hold them because you just never know how each quarter will do, but if you look at them in 5 year increments it will always but up and to the right.
Alert - We are selling all our shares in MELI, because it has declined below the 50dma, and even touched the 30-week MA.
Also, APP is currently up 46% (that’s not a typo), so we are raising our stop price to 15% below the current price. And continuing to hold 100% of our shares in APP.
That is tough rdutt and I can understand why you sold Meli. I would have done the same. That drop is telling all of us something is a foot but watch the 200sma. It has flirted with it many times and then bounced back. I probably won’t be buying it because there are to many other stocks doing really well. (200sma is the bottom black line)
What a day. With APP zooming up 46% today, this stock has gained an incredible 87% since our purchase just a month ago. To protect most of these profits, we have raised our stop on APP to $210.
The rise in APP has helped propel our portfolio to a total return of 18.3% in a little over 2 months. After selling MELI, we now have 16% of our holdings in cash. Sim 1 (my robot partner in crime) will be looking for more opportunistic buys with this cash. (I’m retired, but Sim 1 works 24x7, God bless him )
Alert - we are initiating a 10% position in WGS (GeneDx Holdings). This company is involved with genetics testing and is much smaller than our typical holding. Its market cap is only $2B, but the stock is in a good Stage 2 uptrend.
This is one of the best weeks we’ve ever seen in the stock market. Our portfolio gained another 3% today, as the S&P 500 hit another record high near 6,000.
We’re now up 21.4% since we started this swing trading journey just a little over 2 months ago. Hope you all have also been profiting. HAGW!
Good morning. Both FOUR and ONON have just reported earnings for Q3. ONON’s sales grew 32% YoY and beat estimates. Their EPS of $0.15 missed expectations of $0.19. Market isn’t reacting much to the news, with the stock down a little less than 1% right now.
FOUR’s revenues missed estimates by about 8%, but their EBITDA slightly beat estimates. Market doesn’t like the revenue miss, and the stock is down 8% right now.
Despite that, our portfolio is holding up fine today, thanks to a 4% rise in WGS, a 2% rise in NVDA, and stocks like TTD and META in the green.
Good morning. NU will report earnings after the bell. We’re up almost 12% on this stock since our purchase, which is enough of a cushion, I think, to hold through earnings. Expectations are for $3B of revenues (40% YoY growth) and $0.10 EPS (43% YoY growth). NU is the biggest digital bank in Brazil, and they’re expanding into eCommerce and other LatAm countries at a torrid pace.
Did you know that Warren Buffett has owned shares of NU since their IPO in 2021? He hasn’t sold any of his shares either.
Our portfolio is starting off strong this morning thanks to ONON, WGS and FOUR, which are all up more than 4%. And did you notice that AMZN has been moving up quietly and is now up 17% since our purchase just 1 month ago?
I can’t believe that APP is now up 119% since we bought it. This has helped propel our portfolio to a 24% gain since we started on September 4.
Good afternoon. NU just reported revenues of $2.94B, slightly below estimates, and EPS of $0.11 (up 61% YoY), above estimates. The stock is bouncing around a bit, and currently up about 3% after hours. I think this is a pretty solid earnings report.
In our overall portfolio, the gains I mentioned this morning largely faded by the afternoon. But we still had an OK day, thanks to a 2.5% rise in Amazon. Our AMZN shares are now up almost 19% since our purchase 2 months ago.
Good morning. After the market went vertical last week, it’s natural to see a decline this week. We continue to act mechanically, and see nothing to trigger any sell rules in our holdings. Yes, NU is down after the earnings report, but it’s still above its 50dma. Things are acting quite normally. I’ll have a summary for this week written up after the market closes today.
The market sold off over 2% this week, and our stocks were not immune. We were down a little over 4% for the week. However, we’re still up 16.8% since we started our mechanical swing trading business a little over 2 months ago. The market is up 6.3% in the same period.
Treat your trading like a business. Never look back at a previous record high and get emotionally attached to it. Think about your last 10 years of investing. Your previous high was likely to have been more than 6 months ago the majority of the time. If you keep pining away and pining away for that previous record high, you’re setting yourself up for failure.
Instead, measure your success at the end of each quarter and the end of each year. That’s how businesses operate. They write up quarterly reports. If you keep your money in a high-yield money market fund, you’re safely making 1% per quarter. Did your stock portfolio rise more than 1% for the quarter? Did it rise more than the S&P 500 for the year? That’s how you should be measuring success.
Getting back to our individual stocks, NU and WGS are now on a short leash, based on where they are on the 50dma chart and the stop loss price respectively. We’ll see what happens next week. HAGW!
Good morning. Alert - we are selling our entire position in NU today, since the price has crossed below the 50dma.
We are starting off the day well. FOUR is up almost 5% right now on news that it is being added to the S&P Midcap 400. Both WGS and AMZN are bouncing up from their declines on Friday. And APP continues to defy gravity
While I’ve been basically enjoying the outdoors and taking long naps, Sim 1 (my robot assistant) has been busy. As I mentioned above, he sold all my NU shares on Monday, and bought aviation company FTAI with the proceeds yesterday. So it’s time to take stock (pun intended ) of where we are.
After a strong market rebound this week, our portfolio has now gained 22.1% since we started on Sep. 4. That’s less than 3 months. The S&P 500 is up 7.2% in the same period.
Nvidia reported strong revenues and earnings after the bell, so it’s a keeper for now. Here’s where our portfolio stands today.
Well, we’ve just had a swinglicious week. (Yes, I made up that word.) Thanks to big upward moves in APP, FOUR, ONON and TTD, our swing trading portfolio gained 8% this week. We’re now at an all time high, having gained 26.4% since early September when we started. That’s more than triple the market’s 8% return. APP by itself has gained an astounding 153% since first purchased on October 2.
Are we always going to have monster market-beating weeks like this going forward? Of course not! That’s why we continually raise our stop prices on all our stocks to try to protect gains as much as possible. We are not buy-and-holders - we stick to our stop losses and chart-based sell rules for risk management.
If we had started this strategy during the 2022 bear market year, we would likely only have found Stage 2 stocks in the oil and energy sector. And there would have been periods when we would have stayed largely in cash, having been stopped out multiple times and unable to find anything in Stage 2.
Read the books by super-investors Mark Minervini, Nicolas Darvas, Stan Weinstein and William O’Neill to learn more about the techniques we’re using here. And have a great weekend!
@rdutt@buynholdisdead , Ron, thanks for doing this. This is interesting, something I am trying to learn for 2025. I understand your sell concept. For your buying criteria - " For buying criteria, I’m going to insist that the price is above the 50dma, which in turn is above an upward sloping 200dma." - Iam guessing there will be numerous stocks that satisfy this criteria, so how do you then hone in and choose these 7 stocks. Or even more recently, the latest you added such as WGS or FTAI? Can you please explain what made you choose those from the rest that may have satisfied this criteria. Thanks again!
Charlie
And also, would you please explain which stock screener you use for this? Would greatly appreciate if you can show on what screener you run this to identify the stocks. Thanks Ron!
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