I explained all the Buy Rules in more detail at this post:
As far as the final selections, that depends on whatever is going on in Sim 1’s robotic head 
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Well, let’s see. FOUR hit a record high today and WGS and AMZN both gained more than 2%. But NVDA, APP and FTAI all declined more than 3%. The net effect was that we were down 1% today.
It’s good to have a portfolio where volatility gets reduced by see-saw behavior. You can see what I saw, that some stocks are saw-ing while others are see-ing (if that sentence makes any sense )
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Good morning. Both Amazon and Nvidia (ever heard of them?) are continuing to bounce back up after recent declines.
FOUR (Shift4 Payments) continues upward, and is now up 49% since Sim 1’s purchase in September, which we mentioned at the launch of the Simulation 1 thread. I first purchased FOUR for my own portfolio in August, it’s up 100% since then. Analysts at B Riley have just raised their price target for FOUR to $150. Valuation still looks compelling to me at 18x 2025 estimated free cash flow (FCF), and 15x estimated FCF for 2026.
The performance champ continues to be APP, now up 149% since Sim 1 bought it on October 1, as we posted here in real time. I also bought APP in my personal portfolio back in June, and it’s up 305% since then.
Are we going to have a Santa Claus rally this year? You tell me. I’m not in the predictions business. It’s much better to have a system and a plan than a prediction.
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I have been thinking of App a lot Rdutt since I own some. It’s marketcap is over 100 billion and it has been on a great run.
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Awesome, thanks Ron!
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We ended the day down only 0.3% since last Friday’s close. Declines in FTAI, NVDA and WGS were balanced by a gain in FOUR. We’re still up 26.1% since we started in early September. I’ll do a end-of-week recap on Friday. In the mean time, I wish you all a Happy Thanksgiving!
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I’m still recovering from yesterday’s meal with my wife, kids and extended family. A few extra young people showed up who I didn’t recognize, but my kids swore they knew them
November’s just ended, so it’s time for a recap. We are now up a total of 27.3% in just 3 months after we started this robo swing trading journey. The S&P 500 is up 9.4% in the same period, so we’ve essentially tripled the market’s return.
We were up 6.7% in September, then up 1.1% in October, and up a whopping 19.5% in November. And we did this with some pretty tight stop losses for risk management.
If you look at our holdings, all of them are still in Stage 2 uptrends, and all of them have either their last quarter revenues or EBITDA growing at least 25% YoY.
As far as turnover, we still have 4 of our original picks, and did 12 buys and sells over the past 3 months. So that’s 4 transactions per month, on average. Not bad. We’re not long term buy and holders looking for multi-baggers. We’re happy hitting a lot of singles and doubles and cutting any losses quickly. We’re not going to catch the exact bottoms and tops, but we’re fine capturing most of a Stage 2 uptrend.
Let’s see what next month brings. I’ll start a new thread for December. In the mean time, enjoy the rest of Thanksgiving weekend.
Portfolio Performance
| Start date | Sim1 Return | S&P 500 Return |
|---|---|---|
| 9/4/2024 | 27.3% | 9.4% |
Current holdings
| Ticker | Return | Name | Position size | Buy date | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 15.5% | Amazon.com Inc | 8.2% | 9/11/2024 | |
| FOUR | 49.2% | Shift4 Payments Inc | 11.7% | 9/4/2024 | |
| META | 11.3% | Meta Platforms Inc | 8.6% | 9/4/2024 | |
| FTAI | 3.0% | FTAI Aviation Ltd | 9.3% | 11/19/2024 | |
| ONON | 29.3% | On Holding AG | 10.1% | 9/4/2024 | |
| TTD | 24.7% | Trade Desk Inc | 9.8% | 9/4/2024 | |
| APP | 155.9% | Applovin Corp | 20.1% | 10/2/2024 | |
| NVDA | -3.6% | NVIDIA Corp | 8.1% | 10/22/24 | |
| WGS | 1.8% | GeneDx Holdings Corp | 9.6% | 11/8/2024 | |
| Cash | 4.4% | ||||
| Total | 27.3% | 100.0% |
Recent transactions
| Date | Ticker | Action | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/19/2024 | FTAI | Bought | Stage 2 uptrend | |
| 11/18/2024 | NU | Sold | Fell below 50dma | |
| 11/8/2024 | WGS | Bought | Stage 2 uptrend | |
| 11/7/2024 | MELI | Sold | Fell below 50dma | |
| 10/31/2024 | UBER | Sold | Fell below 50dma | |
| 10/22/2024 | NVDA | Bought | Stage 2 uptrend | |
| 10/21/2024 | ZETA | Sold | Fell below 50dma |
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