Fools,
You’ll find a sheet that contains historical pro-forma business and stock performance numbers that may be useful.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JMUXTw3iY5AskMjGFByG…
First, thank you for all the great Foolish board postings, which influenced me to invest in the company.
Revenues are increasing rapidly. According to the 2014 financial statement, this is basically do to the trend towards linking people, places and things in ways previously not imagined:
Rev Mar Jun Sep Dec
2012 364.7 389.0 421.1 453.7
2013 425.0 436.1 477.0 505.2
2014 481.0 587.0 718.2 805.5
2015 762.1
Y/Y Rev Mar Jun Sep Dec
2012
2013 16.5% 12.1% 13.3% 11.4%
2014 13.2% 34.6% 50.6% 59.4%
2015 58.4%
The resulting increase in adjusted earnings is even more impressive, easily outpacing increases in revenues:
Earn Mar Jun Sep Dec
2012 79.8 86.1 103.5 106.6
2013 91.9 103.8 121.2 127.7
2014 118.6 160.8 216.1 244.8
2015 224.6
Q/Q Mar Jun Sep Dec
2013 15.2% 20.6% 17.1% 19.8%
2014 29.1% 54.9% 78.3% 91.7%
2015 89.4%
This is due in part to increases in the gross margin, but offset by decreases in average selling prices, which means that they are getting really efficient in producing while selling a lot more units. If they can get up to >50%, this will have a meaningful impact on earnings. They mentioned in their annual report that their utilization of production capacity is one of the reasons for such good results. So they’ll probably need to build more capacity along with the growth as a result of little slack.
AdjGM Mar Jun Sep Dec
2012 43.2% 43.2% 42.9% 43.0%
2013 42.2% 44.0% 44.4% 44.5%
2014 44.7% 45.4% 45.9% 46.7%
2015 46.7%
Skyworks is being valued a semiconductor company, with a P/E (Adjusted) whose range is wide and, over the last few years, has exceeded 20 only in the March '15 quarter.
**Month EPS TTM EPS QoQ Gr Hi Lo Close P/E P/E Hi P/E Lo 1Yr. Peg**
Mar-12 0.42 $29.01 $16.48 $27.87
Jun-12 0.45 $29.09 $23.11 $26.54
Sep-12 0.53 $31.44 $22.36 $23.98
Dec-12 0.55 1.95 $24.45 $19.21 $19.82 10.2 12.5 9.9
Mar-13 0.48 2.01 14.3% $25.10 $20.25 $21.59 10.7 12.5 10.1 0.75
Jun-13 0.54 2.10 20.0% $24.58 $19.57 $21.42 10.2 11.7 9.3 0.51
Sep-13 0.64 2.21 20.8% $26.46 $20.95 $24.47 11.1 12.0 9.5 0.53
Dec-13 0.67 2.33 21.8% $28.64 $23.27 $28.29 12.1 12.3 10.0 0.56
Mar-14 0.62 2.47 29.2% $39.34 $27.20 $37.32 15.1 15.9 11.0 0.52
Jun-14 0.83 2.76 53.7% $49.10 $34.30 $46.29 16.8 17.8 12.4 0.31
Sep-14 1.12 3.24 75.0% $59.25 $45.50 $58.64 18.1 18.3 14.0 0.24
Dec-14 1.26 3.83 88.1% $74.97 $44.06 $73.23 19.1 19.6 **11.5** 0.22
Mar-15 1.15 4.36 85.5% $102.77 $68.71 $99.57 22.8 **23.6** 15.8 0.27
**Values @ today's price using 23.6 - 11.5 adjusted P/E range & analysts estimates (Skyworks has been beating**
**them lately) found on Yahoo**
CurrQ 1.27 4.80 53.0% $113.28 $55.20 $105.63 22.0 0.42
NextQ 1.42 5.10 26.8% $120.36 $58.65 $105.63 20.7 0.77
NextQ+1 1.55 5.39 22.8% $127.15 $61.96 $105.63 19.6 0.86
NextQ+2 1.41 5.65 22.8% $133.34 $64.98 $105.63 18.7 0.82
NextFY 1.56 5.94 22.8% $140.18 $68.31 $105.63 17.8 0.78
If one assumes the analyst estimates are correct and we apply the above-mentioned P/E ranges, we can see a price range between $55 & $140 by the end of the next fiscal year (Sep '16).
Given the growth prospects for this company, especially in terms of providing very complex vertically-integrated solutions that solve increasingly complex tasks in a very fast growing market, the future looks bright.
However, if the past is any guide to the future, we should continue to see multiple opportunities to purchase shares at better value points ($98 on Tuesday took the P/E to about 20).
If you were fortunate enough to get in a few years ago when the P/E was around 10, congratulations. At least some of us had the opportunity to buy in at a similar value point last year. Perhaps we’ll get another chance.
Hopefully, you could use the spreadsheet. I’ll try to update it quarterly.
DJ