Slowly I turned, step by step

It’s said that changing the direction of the economy is like turning an ocean liner, I’d argue it’s harder. Fed moves take more than a year to be reflected in the overall numbers, but there are a few green shoots. Here’s another:

Home prices posted their first year-over-year price de­cline in 11 years in April, as higher mort­gage rates made home purchases more ex­pen­sive for buy­ers. The S&P Core­L­ogic Case-Shiller Na­tional Home Price In­dex, which mea­sures home prices across the na­tion, fell 0.2% in April, com­pared with a 0.7% an­nual growth rate the prior month. The an­nual decline was the first for the in­dex since April 2012.

Mort­gage rates rose rapidly in 2022, caus­ing a ma­jor slow­down in home sales as buy­ers backed away from the mar­ket. House-buy­ing af­ford­abil-ity in April fell to its low­est level since November, ac­cord­ing to the Fed­eral Re­serve Bank of At­lanta. But prices haven’t de­clined as much as many econ­o­mists ex­pected, be­cause the higher mortgage rates made cur­rent home­own­ers re­luc­tant to sell, keep­ing the sup­ply of homes on the mar­ket lower than nor­mal.


I’ve read in a few places (of course I can’t find the links, that’s a big problem with [social] media that streams by rapidly … can’t find it again to provide a link) this morning that that data is in arrears by 3 months and that the recent 3-month data doesn’t show a continued decline.

Also, seems like they’ve all jumped on the bandwagon of “Airbnb activity in many hot cities has declined double digit percentages” and that they think this will lead to forced sales which will lead to lower prices.


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“Nowcasting” is modeling that predicts the present inflation rate that has so far proved to be pretty accurate. The current CPI is estimated to be a bit above 3% and the core CPI about 5.2%.


For those who actually recall “Niagara Falls”…

Let’s hope that the Fed’s “slowly I turned, step by step” doesn’t cause the economy to act this way. :wink:



Slowly I turn is the ultimate test of comedy team vituosity. I have always loved the Lucile Ball take, but it only exists in a pathetic short over cut version on the internet.

Enjoyed the stooge version, which I did not even know existed.



Outstanding reference! OOOOld school!

Alrighty. When Moe is reciting the backstory, does he sound like Humphrey Bogart to anyone else?

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