It’s said that changing the direction of the economy is like turning an ocean liner, I’d argue it’s harder. Fed moves take more than a year to be reflected in the overall numbers, but there are a few green shoots. Here’s another:
Home prices posted their first year-over-year price decline in 11 years in April, as higher mortgage rates made home purchases more expensive for buyers. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, which measures home prices across the nation, fell 0.2% in April, compared with a 0.7% annual growth rate the prior month. The annual decline was the first for the index since April 2012.
Mortgage rates rose rapidly in 2022, causing a major slowdown in home sales as buyers backed away from the market. House-buying affordabil-ity in April fell to its lowest level since November, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. But prices haven’t declined as much as many economists expected, because the higher mortgage rates made current homeowners reluctant to sell, keeping the supply of homes on the market lower than normal.
I’ve read in a few places (of course I can’t find the links, that’s a big problem with [social] media that streams by rapidly … can’t find it again to provide a link) this morning that that data is in arrears by 3 months and that the recent 3-month data doesn’t show a continued decline.
Also, seems like they’ve all jumped on the bandwagon of “Airbnb activity in many hot cities has declined double digit percentages” and that they think this will lead to forced sales which will lead to lower prices.
“Nowcasting” is modeling that predicts the present inflation rate that has so far proved to be pretty accurate. The current CPI is estimated to be a bit above 3% and the core CPI about 5.2%.
Slowly I turn is the ultimate test of comedy team vituosity. I have always loved the Lucile Ball take, but it only exists in a pathetic short over cut version on the internet.
Enjoyed the stooge version, which I did not even know existed.
