Reposted from NPI…just curious the thoughts of others here.
Definitely a nice company executing well…but if you already own AYX and TWLO and ZS and ESTC and TTD…is this really diversification if the stock seems to have a year priced in already?
https://investors.smartsheet.com/press-releases/press-releas……
58% growth this Q, 60% for year, finishing at $177m.
Forecasted higher than most, including 42-45% for full 2019. Assuming that is a sandbag, 50% growth “only” gets you to $265m.
To put that in perspective, if SMAR grows 50% y/y in 2019, they will equal the revenues AYX just posted for 2018. Yet they have about the same market cap now.
Nice company, but what is the impetus to invest here at these levels, compared to ZS, MDB, ESTC, AYX, TTD, TWLO??? Can’t own them all.
Good luck to SMAR owners, but I am passing.
Market up a bit right now, but I am guessing the already sky-high valuation will temper it from being a 20%-type pop. Who knows.
Dreamer
3 Likes
up big, so obviously I am wrong. Just feels so bubblicious.
1 Like
Here’s a link to the investor slides.
https://s22.q4cdn.com/427584715/files/doc_presentations/2019…
Average annual contract value was 50% which accelerated slightly from last quarter.
Much other nice information in there. Billings growth of 63%. Subscription gross margin of 88%.
First time as a public company achieving free cash flow.
Doing something right.
Darth
6 Likes
$ based NRR ticked up to 134%
Call is very good. Accelerators are are really driving big dollar growth.
Darth
8 Likes
Darth, Thanks so much for your post on accelerators. I added about 12% more shares to my position in SMAR today. That’s all the cash I could raise, and it brought me to a 4.7% position. Now I hope that part of the price rise holds.
Appreciate the great post.
Best,
Saul
7 Likes
Amazing timing Saul, nice add.
Seems like another great find on this board.
When you say you raised cash to purchase, did you sell some shares of another holding?
Just curious if you had less conviction of one of the holdings you posted on the 15th, or maybe
you trimmed one of your top holdings just to balance out your portfolio a bit?
Hopefully this AH price holds tomorrow, I don’t see any reason it won’t.
Market might get spooked a bit by Fed Ex’s terrible earnings tonight though and their announcement (claim) of a worldwide economic slowdown.
Chris
1 Like
Amazing timing Saul, nice add.
Seems like another great find on this board.
Yes it is. Saul said “I need some help and advice re some of my stocks” so we gave him SMAR. See post 52867.
Denny Schlesinger
3 Likes
<i< Amazing timing Saul, nice add. Seems like another great find on this board.
Yes it is. Saul said “I need some help and advice re some of my stocks” so we gave him SMAR. See post 52867.
Hi Denny, and here’s where I said what I did and why: # 52984. https://discussion.fool.com/thanks-for-the-help-here39s-what-i-d… Anyone else could have come to the same conclusions. The information was right there. And Bear even referred us to a deep dive on SMAR which was very helpful (by StockNovice, I think), and Darth has explained why they are growing so fast.
I really, really, REALLY, appreciated all the help I got, by the way. It was an amazing outpouring of ideas. That’s what our board is for, by the way, not wandering off on off-topic nonsense.
Saul
22 Likes
Friendly exchange is what the boards are all about. I bought SMAR one month ago to the day and it’s up over 30%!
Denny Schlesinger
Saul,
Do you (or someone) have a link to the deep dive re/ SMAR? I missed it and I’m in quandary with this one. I just don’t get what makes this application so special. It’s being referred to as “project management” s/w, but so far as I can tell it doesn’t look like the PM s/w I’m familiar with. I have first hand experience with MS-Project and Primavera (now an Oracle product). They were both in use where I worked. Used for s/w projects as well as development or aerospace products.
Maybe, it’s just the definition of “project” that I’m struggling with. From my experience a project was the investment in effort and resources required to develop a product to schedule. Project management was the discipline of tracking (and often adjusting) the plan that brought labor and other resources to bear on the product development effort in order to meet the schedule. Terms like “dependency path” and “tentpole” are common PM jargon. The project was considered complete when the initial development effort delivered the product and attendant deliverables (i.e., training materials, various documents, etc).
Subsequent to project completion there followed a production phase. Production, in the case of s/w, most often meant using as an application inside the enterprise to perform some business function. In the case of a marketed product, production meant the system and processes to produce and deliver the product to end customers.
From what I’ve been able to glean so far, Smartsheets looks like a product one might use in an on-going production environment, sort of a team coordination tool, I just don’t see how it plays as a project management tool. And if it is a PM tool, I don’t see how it competes against a raft of well established PM s/w products.
I can’t deny, it’s growth is pretty great, they must be doing things right and there must be significant appeal for the product. I’m tempted to buy in without understanding the product offering, but that makes me pretty uncomfortable.
2 Likes
brittlerock -
Here’s the deep dive you asked about. It was done in mid-January, so it doesn’t include today’s numbers. Hope it helps.
https://discussion.fool.com/a-deeper-look-at-smartsheet-smar-341…
4 Likes
And here’s the thread with Darth’s excellent explanation of the potential growth in some of SMAR’s premium add-ons:
https://discussion.fool.com/smar-an-answer-to-the-riddle-3416037…
2 Likes
Saul, thanks and I hope it works out. Looks like a business solving some high value problems for businesses with a solid core product as well.
Something else that has been discussed about this company is that growth of the 79K “domain customers” that’s only growing like 7%. Kind of a weird metric when we boil it down.
But now we have paid licensee numbers to work with.
In the SMAR prospectus they gave 650,000 paid licensees at end of January 2018.
And this quarter they gave this for end of January 2019.
We ended the year with over 4.8 million users, including more than 800,000 paid licensed users and nearly 79,000 domain customers.
So about 23% paid licensee growth.
Darth
4 Likes
I know analyst DA Davidson moved Smartsheet to Neutral. Anyone aware of other news resulting in the recent stock slide?
My suspicion is people are taking profits due to the 65% increase YTD, but wonder if I’m missing something.
Thanks
D.A. Davidson says Smartsheet (NYSE:SMAR) is “fully valued” and starts at a Neutral rating, becoming the first of the nine firms covering the company not to have a Buy-equivalent view.
• Analyst Rishi Jaluria advises to “wait for a better entry point” and sets his price target at $45.
The whole market was down significantly and the analysts target is higher than the price, so I don’t think this made any difference. They had a great earnings report and it’s been rising like a rocket.
Darth
2 Likes
Missed out on buying SMAR when most did, so I’ve been watching and waiting… Today I’m taking my first nibble.
By the way, there’s been a nice little pullback since earnings, but after watching some of the insider sales (and zero buys) I have to wonder if there will be even better entry points.
Edgar:
https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&a…
Got this link from someone here; it’s excellent for reviewing insider activity:
http://openinsider.com/screener?s=SMAR&o=&pl=&ph…
Take care,
VR_Robear
Who is finally invested in SMAR
2 Likes