My portfolio by value

I’ll do a full update at the end of March, but I thought it was interesting that right now my portfolio seems to fall into 3 valuation buckets.

Higher than normal valuations
ZM - PS of 69

Lower than normal valuations
AYX - PS of 17
CRWD - PS of 24
ESTC - PS of 12
PINS - PS of 8

Normal valuations
OKTA - PS of 26
SMAR - PS of 19
DDOG - PS of 29 (I guess that’s borderline-low)

I just found this interesting. Typically all software stocks are either at the high end or low end of their ranges together. Now we have 3 groups.

Unfortunately the bargains are already top positions for me, except for PINS. Of course if OKTA dips again I’ll be adding to it, but right now DDOG and SMAR don’t seem to be bargains long term, at least nearly as much as AYX, CRWD, ESTC and PINS.

I’ve added to PINS a bit, but I’m mostly just trimming and adding 5% to/from my top positions as they are up and down. Cash is just shy of 20%, so I’d love to see more great buys out there. Or maybe it’s time to take AYX to Gaucho Chris -like levels.

Any ideas?

Bear

35 Likes

I’ve added to PINS a bit, but I’m mostly just trimming and adding 5% to/from my top positions as they are up and down. Cash is just shy of 20%, so I’d love to see more great buys out there. Or maybe it’s time to take AYX to Gaucho Chris -like levels.

Paul; Do you mean up or down above or below your chosen percentage level of commitment?

Thank you! Ayx at around 100, Ps 17. I missed Boeing at below 100, not going to miss this time. Ayx is on Sauls top, Berts best rebound list, and its only 10% of my portfolio. Adding today to 15% maybe 20. unless there is a asteroid strike how can this not be double in two years? This was staring me in the face.

1 Like

Personally, I have gone the route “to take AYX to Gaucho Chris -like levels.”

I just don’t see how it isn’t higher at this point. All signs point to an extremely bright future (profitability top notch, growth rate increasing, little to no competition, huge addressable market.) The only reasons I can see keeping it down is fear over the short term impact of the current economic downturn and that it had a huge run up earlier in the year.

Unlike some companies who reported earnings recently, AYX hasn’t had to provide any guidance or insight as to potential impact from COVID and that may give investors pause before piling back in. People seemed to have the same concern with Crowdstrike before their earnings report.

Anyone else see any reason to be concerned about why Alteryx hasn’t recovered more?

Kyle

1 Like

Is this OT? Please delete if so (with my apologies):
My concerns with AYX are less specific to the company (amazing product; excellent company) than with systemic risk.

What I can not decide on: Once the numbers become clear in terms of the economic impact of shutting down ‘everything’, do I think companies invest MORE in companies like AYX in an attempt to improve efficiency/trim budgets OR if they will look at AYX (and other software, included SaaS type) as a luxury and cancel plans to acquire the software and build expertise?

I am in a ‘do nothing’ pattern with AYX right now until I can decide how I feel about this.

1 Like

I think there is a crisis of opportunity out there, but investor sentiment is unsure of MEDICAL impacts to this down environment. If you remember, we started this derailment with:

  1. Oil
  2. Sickness
  3. World Turmoil
  4. “frothy Valuations”

I think we have a pause 3 because of 2. Oil isn’t going anywhere until we have demand come back (even if supply is cut), so that’s ALSO waiting on 2. I think Frothy Valuations have been aleviated in the broader markets by the pull back and the incredible amount of inflation that is currently happening.

Because of this, I don’t think we will see too much drama up or down (relatively - Has my clock been reset? - 1000!point swings are barely the threshold of care)

Higher than normal valuations
ZM - PS of 69

Lower than normal valuations
AYX - PS of 17
CRWD - PS of 24
ESTC - PS of 12
PINS - PS of 8

Normal valuations
OKTA - PS of 26
SMAR - PS of 19
DDOG - PS of 29 (I guess that’s borderline-low)

I think ZM has room to run, but, I’m not adding anything more from here. I have 4% cash on the sidelines from sales of no confidence companies. currently, orders for COUP, an Option on AYX and OKTA

I have no PINS, but I think there are two pressures on this one.

  1. Its not understood for future capability. Has Leadership done its best job providing this picture? I haven’t seen any commentary or guidance from them to make this longer term picture more clear.
  2. Its losing the Comparison race right now. PINS or X company. put AYX there, Put CRWD there, Put OKTA there. For new money, I don’t think its got top of mind for actionable trading among those other names.

I don’t have a position in PINS. I’ve been thinking of adding, but, I outlined my current orders for COUP, Okta, and AYX Calls, instead.

1 Like

Is this OT? Please delete if so (with my apologies):
My concerns with AYX are less specific to the company (amazing product; excellent company) than with systemic risk.

What I can not decide on: Once the numbers become clear in terms of the economic impact of shutting down ‘everything’, do I think companies invest MORE in companies like AYX in an attempt to improve efficiency/trim budgets OR if they will look at AYX (and other software, included SaaS type) as a luxury and cancel plans to acquire the software and build expertise?

I am in a ‘do nothing’ pattern with AYX right now until I can decide how I feel about this.

The answer is probably…both. Different companies will make different decisions. There are a lot of problems to solve right now, which should lead companies towards the software that creates the “thrill of solving”. But do they have the capital? Stimulus makes me think yes. And when you’re at home, what better time is there to learn a new software skill set?

End of the day, their current p/s is the same as what their forward p/s was in February. I do think there could be more pain, but I’ve been buying back in slowly. It’s great to get great companies at great prices. Right now Alteryx is a great company selling for a fair price, which is just fine by me.

1 Like

There are a lot of problems to solve right now, which should lead companies towards the software that creates the “thrill of solving”. But do they have the capital? Stimulus makes me think yes. And when you’re at home, what better time is there to learn a new software skill set?

I think for a lot of workers it’s more mission critical than that. There are consultants at firms like PwC who use it every day. It’s not a nice-to-have, it’s a big part of the way they do their job and drive revenue for their company.

Right now Alteryx is a great company selling for a fair price, which is just fine by me.

I think a PS of 17 is a great price, more than fair! I just don’t know how comfortable I am with a 25% position (or even more like some of you have). I wish there were two or three other companies like AYX out there, but I’m not seeing them (other than the ones I own, and even with those I’m not as confident as I am in AYX).

Bear

3 Likes

I know that there are some traders who analyze fibonacci waves that believe xxx still has to take another big leg down before it starts to rise again. None of that really matters or has any bearing on the business, but what technical traders believe about what the technicals are saying to them can have an impact on how the stock performs. Volatility is at an extreme now and it doesn’t make sense to pay too much mind all the daily movements.

Bobby, that post is pure market timing and tech analysis. Please don’t post that stuff on our board. It will be deleted.
Saul

5 Likes

Bear

AYX is a good student but still very naughty, this is second time she did this bounce bounce game. As her ER was held by mid Feb as well as DDOG and ROKU. So I’ll vote the latest CRWD. There was temporary shortage on NB with camera in Taiwan.Yes, we still free to go outside but people are preparing for video education at home. So I think George Kurtz is right. And EV not expansive anymore since last year end.

Nobody knows how long should this crazy things go, but as CRWD starting beating other big competitors. I think their AI will keep them with huge tailwind in this lockdown period and even stuck with their incredible modules in near future( modules are good, yes at least 90% GM IMO)

Rick

1 Like

I don’t have a position in PINS. I’ve been thinking of adding
I have a tiny position and feel it had been under appreciated, but am not adding at the moment.

Isn’t the premise of Pinterest based on people being out and about? Surely in a lockdown environment this is going to be hit hard and of zero interest to consumers, or am I missing something?

Ant

Isn’t the premise of Pinterest based on people being out and about? Surely in a lockdown environment this is going to be hit hard and of zero interest to consumers, or am I missing something?

You may be confusing Instagram with Pinterest, at least from my own anecdotal standpoint. To me, Pinterest is used to keep track of things you find on the ‘Net. So the more time you have to browse (like during a COVID-19 lockdown, for instance), the more Pinterest would be used, in my opinion. I would think this might be a good time to look at PINS, at least from that standpoint. I don’t have a position in PINS, BTW.

I agree, one of the main use cases of pinterest is for home renovation/improvement. My wife and I have spent a fortune already via pinterest, buying things for the garden and house during this lockdown. I see very positive numbers coming out of this for them…

1 Like
I attempted to compare the EV/S for some of these companies against expected EV/S for the growth rate.
I got the expected EV/S by projecting a straight line through some of the numbers Bert has quoted in his articles. 

Company	CAGR   Expected_EV/S   EV/S_(LTM)_04/09   Discount [%]
PINS   51.17   16.93   6.20   63.39
ROKU   52.04   17.21   9.70   43.65
 AYX   64.81   21.30   15.40   27.70
CRWD   92.70   30.22   23.60   21.92
SMAR   52.42    17.33   17.10   1.35

Appears that PINS, ROKU offer the best value as of today 04/09.

Open to any feedback. I am relatively new to this board, thanks for all the wonderful information.
1 Like

The P/S ratio is only used so much in recent years because SaaS stocks do not have any earnings. They also tend to have high gross margin. The theory, hope, plan is they will have high net profit margins as a result. ROKU should not be combined in to this group because their platform sales are going to have terminal Gross Margins of around mid 50’s, and their device sales are roughly 10% gross margins. The P/S ratio should not be lumped into the SaaS stocks which tend to have 70-90% gross margins.

3 Likes

That’s a great tip. Comparing companies with similar Gross Margins makes a lot more sense.

1 Like