FYI: I closed 40% of my SMCI calls (Jan25 $150) today when the stock was up $89/90. IMO, that stock price was pretty close to being 30X my expected 2024 calendar year earnings (rationale for that EPS on the SMCI board). (SMCI’s fiscal year doesn’t end in Dec. I use calendar year anyway as a means to avoid mistakes.). So, IMO, the risk of holding was getting a bit high given they were Jan25 calls and the overall valuation.
Obviously, I still have that previous 60% (100%-40%), which is now ~33% of my portfolio. I put most of the proceeds of the sale into calls: NVDA Jan26 $720s (total now is 51% of my portfolio) because I think they’ll “Wow!” the market with their earnings report next Wednesday and IMO, the PE for NVDA is more logically defensible than SMCI. The spare change after those transactions went into more GCT, which is a ~9% position.
Total portfolio: +152% YTD… crazy!
Rob
He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain what he cannot lose.
HI Rob, you know how to press to the metal when things going in your way…you did same for upst and enph etc…your conviction different level. your year to date returns insane. if you participate in us investing championship you might win easily.
may be i can try nvdia calls looks reasonable bet here. we might loose but risk reward reasonable. you have better advantage because you investing with profits.
Here is the SMCI trading day. Pop up 10% in the morning, pull back a few percentage points mid day, and close up near or higher then the morning high. Pretty much every day.
So tomorrow? Most likely pop up to say 925 to 950 in the morning, sell off for most of the day to say 890, then close near the high of the morning. Rinse and repeat. That is if it keeps following the same pattern it’s on right now.
I have no idea how much others own, but my position which only represents 5% of my portfolio is very large. I’ve been at this since 1992, so there is no way for instance I could ever have any position much larger then 10%. The largest position Ive ever had was AAPL at around 15%, which I’ve cut by 2/3 after holding for 20 years.
So even with huge moves in names like NVDA, my biggest position, and SMCI, now 4th largest, my portfolio is only up 14% YTD. I was happy if I reached 15% in 2024.
At this point in my life, at 60, I play more of the capital preservation game, then thinking of needing more. My wife and I already have more than we need. Unless we somehow make it to 130. Then we may be in trouble.
Wish I’d been playing more of that game at the end of '21 and early '22, oh well, live and learn. Have come back strong in '23 and so far in '24, but unfortunately never got on the SMCI train.
B of A just put a 1040 price tag on SMCI. Believes it has at least three years of 50% plus growth in front of it. Thinks it’s being underestimated.
I put in a limit order last night to sell 10% more of my shares at 950 which obviously hit. I just put another order in at 995. That will get me down to 50% of original shares. I may wait for the stock split announcement after that, unless it just keeps going up. We shall see.
Can’t compare the two. Whenever you compare SMCI to a company that “was going to make”, then it’s a bad comparison. SMCI “makes”. They are already successful and already producing.
You missed this one Beach. SMCI isn’t going back to 200, or 2. Yea it might now be ahead of itself, yea it might pull way back at some point, maybe 600? Who knows. It also might be above 1000 or much higher in a year or three years.
This isn’t a UPST story. They have the orders, they have a runway, they are part of AI.
Either way, you missed a golden opportunity, especially when they preannounced a few weeks back and the stock AH that day hardly popped. I think that was at about 360?
I am not putting anyone down for selling or managing their portfolio so I want to be clear about that. But if you are in your 30’s or 40’s you might want to just hang on and watch. This company should be at least 10 percent of your portfolio. If you look at the spreadsheet I put up they are guiding for accelerated growth. Up 200 percent YoY and 12 percent sequentially. This company could really juice your portfolio. Selling now at the start of what is happening could be very deflating looking back in 2 years. They are just starting to rebuild all the data centers and this company is in the middle of it. You hang on now and watch every quarter. You are not going to get out at the top but let’s say in 2 years it tops out after you make 10 times your money and then it drops 20 or 30 percent and then you sell because it is obviously starting to lose Revenue growth. Are you really going to care? If you are under 40 I would look at the risk and reward and put my money to work on whatever way you think this will go. If you think it is topping fine, but if you think it has another 2 years at least to go, do not sell now.
Beach it’s not about congratulations, or being in or out of the stock, it’s about a really unfair comparison to try and build your case against the stock. We know you don’t like the name, loud and clear as you did start this thread.
My biggest position is NVDA, so agree there that there are maybe better places to invest in, but very few. SMCI is in that same grouping.
I trimmed again at 995, last trim will be 1050, which will bring me to 50% of original shares. If the pattern continues, that just might be AH today. Then I will hold. I’m not under forty, and my portfolio is twenty times larger then what it was when I was forty, so still having 5% of my funds in SMCI, trust me it’s a very large number.
Ha. Andy this was my plan all along. Trim as it goes up. I called higher when I first started trimming at 630. Then 750. Then 800, then 950, now at 1000. I was wrong about AH though, I was looking for 1050, amd it only got to 1041. Damn it!!! Every time I sold, I said it would be higher the next day. Luck? Doesn’t matter, I’ve been happy to trim every time.
Regrets? Not at all. I’m happy that it has kept going straight up. Grateful that I could sell it higher and higher. Grateful if tomorrow it pops another 10% and I can do one last trim.
I think I stand somewhere between your incredible enthusiasm for SMCI and Beach’s incredible distain for the company. I find it to be a much safer place, like in politics, to stay much closer to the middle. ;).
I get you Citi and I appreciate your viewpoint, I really do. This is getting outrageous but I can’t get off this train until I see the top. I think it will keep going up until at least the NVDA report but I could be wrong because it is trading outside it’s historical range by a wide range. But dang this is fun.
Andy
Absolutely fun. I looked at my Fidelity account tonight just to get some perspective on how this month has gone. I looked back at 5 years of monthly returns. Turns out my best month on a dollar basis return was Nov 2023. That surprised me. What really shocked me though was my return half way into Feb and I’m already 7% higher in half a month of Feb. over that record month of Nov. Now the month isn’t over, who knows what the next two weeks bring, but yes it has been an amazing two weeks.
Every position I own that has reported has beaten and raised and moved way up, except TSLA. It’s been obviously the best earnings season I’ve ever had.
So yea, it’s been incredibly fun. Please stay in touch on here and let me know when you are feeling a top in SMCI. I’m curious what exactly will bring that about and why.
Andy,
Did you forget to tell us about the top today?
I only saw the sell off, had no idea the stock hit 1077 at the open. I had no idea until now that my sell limit order did hit at 1050, which was going to be my last sale of shares.
Of course all the naysayers are all over social media with “I told you so”.
Stock could be 600 next week, or above 1000. At this point after becoming my second largest position behind NVDA, with all my trims, and now this fall, it’s down to 14.
We lost so much ground so fast though. It will take forever to recover todays loss as we have moved all the back to where it opened on…….uh Weds morning. Yea, two days ago.
So that spike to 1077, I’ll go out on a limb and call that a top for a while.
Ok course, what the hell do I know. This one is either going to be down to 550/600 or back up past 1070 next week.
