SMCI Earnings Today

Wow! What a head spinning bummer! Up over $100 upon ER release, than tanks nearly $200!

Revenues soared from $2.18 billion to $5.31 billion (up 143% YOY and 38% QoQ) with full fiscal rising from $7.12 billion to $14.94 billion, a 110% increase.

Net income $1.21 billion vs. $640 million last year.

However, EPS of $5.51 was way below analyst estimates of $7.63.

Margins were the issue, getting squeezed by competition from Dell to 11.2% vs. 15.5% last quarter and 17% the quarter before.

STRONG upward rev guidance 26-30B for Fy2025 vs 23.4B est!!!

They added a 10 for 1 stock split to further twist your mind into a pretzel.

Don’t think I’ve ever seen such upward revenue revision and the stock tanks.

Feeling like I jumped from the Lusitania (CRWD) to the Titanic (SMCI).

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It was a crazy report and even crazier price action. So revenues beat but earnings missed big time.

A few points were picked up in earnings call that have been discussion topics on other threads covering SMCI on this board:

  1. Liquid Cooling Market Share:-

“I believe for June and July in last next two months we may ship at least 70% to 80% or liquid cooling compared with all the liquid cooling in the world. So for liquid cooling, we have at least 70% to 80% market share.”

  1. Rack Manufacturing Capacity

Given the previous forecasts of 5000 by 2023 year end and then rolled out to June this. year, this is what they had to say about their capacity in the Q&A…

"It’s a very good question. I mean, last month, we have about 1,000 racks per month liquid cooling capacity. And today, we already grow another 50%. So now we have a 1,500 rack per month capacity. By this year-end, we will grow that to 3,000 rack per month. That’s with liquid cooling alone. "

  1. Margin Pressures:

“We have a path to improve gross margins to the target range of 14% to 17% as we introduce innovative platforms based on multiple new technologies from our strategic partners and improved manufacturing efficiencies on our DLC solutions.”

  1. Future Growth Potential
    Given potential delays in Nvidia GB200, here is what they said about their outlook and factoring in of GB200…

“Yes. I mean, yes, we heard NVIDIA may have some delay, right? And we treat that as a normal possibility. When they introduced new technology, new product, they are always have a chance to – there will be a push out a little bit. In this case, it pushed out a little bit. But to us, I believe we have no problem to provide the customer with a new solution like H200 liquid cooling. We have a lot of customers like that. So although we hope better deploy in the schedule, that’s good for a technology company, but this push out overall impact to us. It should be not too much.”

$800 million of revenue in the quarter has been pushed out (not lost) because of nonavailability of components.

and WRT Blackwell…

“Yes. Thank you. I mean, indeed, we are relatively very conservative. I understand Blackwell may postpone how much we don’t exactly know because the new technology always what can be pushed out, right? So for Q3, for sure, we do not expect any Blackwell volume. For Q4, I mean December quarter, I guess, it will be very small. Engineering sample small volume. So the real volume, I believe, had to be March quarter next year. And that’s why we foresee only $26 billion to $30 billion.”

“Liquid cooling, I mean, for sure, is necessary and it’s very helpful for Blackwell solution. Although Blackwell solution pushed out a little bit. But indeed we enable liquid cooling for H100 and H200 as well and a lot of customers are interested in our H100 and H200 liquid cooling now indeed. So liquid cooling to from our position we’d like to support the whole datacenter not just Backwell.”

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Hi Antho,

I was also slightly disappointed by the EPS miss, even if I was expecting it. I was banking on a large upward rev guidance, but I never imagined it would be this much.

I had sold 75% of my SMCI between 700-1200, at an average of 950 earlier in the year.

Over the past couple weeks I’ve started to add back, with some failure (bits at 930 after the NDX 100 add …) and some lesser ones (around 600-700).

Based on the forecast, where they are always conservative: if they do 30B of revenue, on let’s say 8% margin, that’s, 2.4B. They have I think ~65M shares outstanding, so that’s what? ~37 per share?

That puts them at a very, very low EPS multiple.

Unforunatly, I have a small portfolio, so the stock price itself has prevented me to add in a more spread, more intelligent basis. But if I can grab a bit more SMCI <600, I am going to.

Compare the stock to AMD for instance (that I also own), and it’s a no brainer I believe?

And I hate that feeling. What am I missing? I understand the margin decrease is really an issue, but at back to back years of triple digit growth …

EDIT: management also guided to increasing margins in 6-12 months

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There were a ton of questions about the margins obviously. And the CEO is not always the easiest to understand, so one has to carefully piece together what he is saying.

I took from his answers that the margin compression this quarter was unique and that their margins will improve again. I did not specifically infer that competition from Dell was the reason for the margin compression, rather that this was planned in order to grab market share in the liquid cooled market - which they successfully did. And liquid cooled is the future as Blackwell will require it.

Given that revenue really exploded and their guide for next year is nothing short of another blow out, I think the margin progression is the key thing to focus on and understand.

As background here is the historical gross margins and operating margins:

GP % Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2022 13.3% 14.0% 15.6% 17.6%
2023 18.8% 18.7% 17.6% 17.0%
2024 16.7% 15.4% 15.5% 11.2%
Op % Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2022 2.9% 4.4% 6.6% 10.1%
2023 11.9% 11.9% 7.7% 10.4%
2024 8.1% 10.1% 9.8% 6.5%

The reason for the EPS miss this quarter was gross margin compression, and operating margins followed. So gross margins are really the key thing to understand.

Let’s unpack this quarter’s margins:

The CFO gave us this:

I would say, we prepared the market for a downturn in margins or a softening of margins in our guidance last quarter. But even we were surprised by the acceleration that we saw in the liquid cooled rack market. And so we had to ramp up our supply chain. We paid a lot of expedite costs and higher supply chain costs. So I think as the supply chain improves, we expect those efficiencies to now come back out, but that impacted us more than we had expected.

About a specific question about the reason for the 430bps GP% reduction, the CFO gave this specific answer:

No, so half was targeting specific accounts like we announced last quarter. And the other half was really the higher supply costs that we encountered.

→ Half of their margin decline this quarter was due to lowering prices to target specific accounts as they had planned and told us last q. This is what they said a Q ago: “We expect gross margins to be down sequentially as we focus on driving strategic market share gains.” And the other half was due to the faster than expected liquid cooled demand and scaling costs associated with ramping up.

The CEO had this to say on the topic:

Okay. For June, it’s really a unique quarter because we deploy lots of liquid cooling and we pay lots of expedite cost. So that makes our June gross margin much worse. But now, indeed, our liquid cooling technology have been getting very mature, and we have a high volume now. So that though our liquid cooling cost are now. And however we try to promote liquid cooling as a mainstream product solution. So we try not to add the value too much to customers. But, instead, we try to gain market share and make liquid cooling everywhere.

And about the reason that they’re sacrificing margin at this stage, i.e. their strategy:

Yes, I mean, indeed, the liquid cooling from our point of view it is really a good value to the whole market and our whole planet because of less energy consumption, right? So we enable liquid cooling primarily for Blackwell, right, because Blackwell higher power that’s for sure. Lots of cases need liquid cooling. But we enable that for H100, H200 and regular CPU as well. Because overall liquid cooling once mature, once economical scale is good enough, it’s good for all different kind of computing. And not exactly now, we are deploying, we are promoting. Lot of our customer continue to interest in our liquid cooling even enough for Blackwell.

→ Ok so my take out of this is that they sacrificed margins to grab liquid cooled market share, which they managed to do as they got to about 80% worldwide market share! That’s very impressive. The volume producer wins in this game, and if liquid cooling is the future then this quarter sets them up extremely well for that, and the margin sacrifice is a very fair price to pay for that.

And for margins going forward we have these quotes:

CFO:

I think if you look at the guidance that we gave for Q1, we expect to be above 12% in the first quarter. And we’re doing – we’ll be working very hard to move back into the range as we mentioned as soon as quickly as we can.

So what range is that? Later he said this:

Yeah. So, our target is still 14% to 17% […] But our target is definitely to stay in the 14% to 17% range.

→ So my take-out is that margins will improve going forward and that this Q was the low point. Next year we can expect margins to be above 12% in Q1, trending up towards the target and historical average of 14-17%

I think I’ll be keeping my shares.

-wsm

(Long SMCI)

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Yes, having re-read the CC I fully agree with you, wsm007, that the low margins this quarter are due to them being pleasantly surprised by the huge demand for DLC (causing them to overpay for parts so that they can maintain their first to market advantage), and also by their plan to capture as much of the market share as possible, including both enterprise and hyperscaler.

The huge revenue guide for next year is immense, and they even said it could be higher if they sacrificed margins more (which they’re not going to do). But they do plan to return to their target of 14-17% GM in due course.

It was a mixed report. The EPS miss was a negative, but overall I’m still happy to continue to hold my shares.

Jonathan

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I also don’t want to downplay the margins or EPS miss, but it does seem temporary and I’ve been happy to add on this huge decline (and prior to earnings, unfortunately but oh well).

But if you take the comparisons off the table, and the estimates, the numbers are still pretty crazy. It’s not like they have negative earnings like many high growth companies. In fact, based on a Koyfin screener I just ran, they are the ONLY company that are growing revenue at greater than 40% while delivering an EPS over $5 - and guiding to continue doing so. Literally one of one.

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I’ve posted here in the past that this company is going to see much more competitivce pressure sooner than NVDA, but with this report, I’m a buyer for now.

The margin hit is probably a combination of bringing in a ton of inventory of components to start shipping the most leading edge products as well as having to sort thru some yield issues, and just mass inefficiencies in being a first to market leader. They will quickly sort those things out.

The top line boost is a major story here and I will be making this a 3-4% position for the first time this morning.

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SMCI is a world-class prize fighter with a (seemingly temporary) black eye being treated like it lost a whole arm and a leg.

SMCI is a hardware company and will never be valued like a SaaS company. But just for a fun exercise, let’s look at the how the metrics would compare. TTM revenue is roughly $15B and enterprise value is now sitting around $30B. EV/TTM Rev is a modest ~2X. Next fiscal year revenue is forecasted at $26-30B (87% YoY growth(!) at midpoint). That gives EV/NTM Rev of ~1X and a Growth Adjusted EV (EV/NTM Rev/NTM Growth) of 0.012x.

If you follow Jamin Ball’s newsletter, the “cheapest” SaaS company (OLO) has growth adjusted EV of 0.1x. SNOW is 0.5X and PLTR is 1.0x. SMCI is 10x cheaper than the cheapest SaaS company in Ball’s report. Astounding.

As I said, SMCI is not SaaS. So let’s look at P/E assuming a near worst-case scenario: low gross and operating margins persist and EPS comes in at ~$5.5 for the next four quarters. If that happens, NTM P/E is low 20s–for a company growing top line at nearly triple digits. But SMCI forecast $7.48 EPS next quarter. With no more growth that pushes NTM P/E to ~17.5. With some modest growth on that EPS for Q2-Q4, it’s even more attractive.

Finally, keep in mind next fiscal quarter has a very easy comp of $2.12B. At the midpoint of guidance ($6.5B) that represents YoY growth 207%. Note that comps do get a little tougher after Q1 and annual growth would only be 78% if there is no QoQ growth in Q2.

I usually get burned buying on dips, but SMCI looks extremely attractive today as a stock and company to invest in. Very happy to add today.

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I get why the market is unsure about Super Micro after earnings, and I wouldn’t call this no brainer buy.

Look, there are companies that get bought because of great long term potential/optionality/durability. And there are companies like SMCI where most of participants want to ride the wave for the next 1-2 years and then jump ship.

Short term you have rapid revenue growth but margins fell off a cliff, mgmt says they will recover in the next quarters. But when they are, will revenue still grow 75-100% or already decelerate sharply? It’s really not about FY25 but beyond that… SMCI doesn’t sell chips where you have to continuously upgrade to stay competitive, the racks that are bought for the DC‘s will still be fine few years later. So there will probably come a time when revenues go significantly negative. And I think that’s what the market is worried about - that this time will come to soon for some goldilocks years in between.

In short: Market wanted a no brainer cash cow for the near term and didn’t get it.

Think it could still work from here as lots of negative scenarios are already priced in now… and no signs of capex spending slowdown yet (apart from some cautious voices about ROI getting louder) but I decided it’s just not checking my boxes anymore, regardless how fast revenue grows. (Personally I held and sold shares on different occasions in the last two years and sold the last time „too early“ in February in the 650s, because I feared that competition will catch up and pressure margins.)

If you run a store in the desert that sells cold water and you have hundreds of thirsty customers waiting outside. What would definitely not happen? Yep, you lowering prices for the water bottles. But SMCI has to do that with their solutions - even with huge demand. That tells us they are not selling in a desert but next to 5 other water shops where everybody sells equally tasty water.

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Where did you see they lowered prices? The margin compression appeared to come from suddenly having to increase their orders from suppliers and paying more for that…according to what I have seen.

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They attributed half of the margin miss to supply chain issues due to the fast ramping, but the other half to aggressive pricing - to get deals they wouldn’t have otherwise.

That’s also underscored by their guidance for around 12% - if it was only a short term ramping issue, I would expect gm to jump back faster.

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Then the 10 to 1 split will be appealing!

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My concern is this: SMCI made a unique product, optimized for AI. Then they caught on and we saw their value and market demand skyrocket last year. But other huge hardware developers can do the same thing if they are willing to spend development money. It is the same mix of CPU’s, GPU’s, memory, interconnection boards and cables, and cooling. They can measure their results against SMCI results with help of SMCI customers. The “secret sauce” which represents a moat isn’t all that much to well-funded engineering companies. When a new product meets such success, it isn’t long before well funded companies show up to get their share.

I worked for a company who invented a great new style of server in the 2000-2010 decade. The major computer vendors saw the advantage and came up with similar products and in a year we became a commodity vendor instead of a highly differentiated vendor.

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This was a challenging report to unpack because the gross margin came in a lot of lower than expected due to the variety of factors including a supply shortage of components, going after more market share, and CapEx from factory build outs. It is now the second quarter in a row where a supply shortage impacted revenue.

On the other hand the guide of 26-30M for full year of revenue seems high as that would put an average quarter of 7.5B. Hitting the high end of the guide, and be over 100% yoy on the yearly revenue growth since the current year that just ended was 14.9M of revenue. The guide for next quarter is 6-7B so it seems like they are projected more revenue acceleration coinciding with their factory expansion plans.

The map they showed in the investor presentation showed some new locations they are building out factories in Japan, China (2x), UK, and a location on the East Coast. The geographic breakdown really shows how fast Asia is growing in this market. By revenue,

USA 61% (+94% yoy, 20% qoq)
Asia 24% (+437% yoy, +66% qoq)
Europe 10% (+128% yoy, +74% qoq)
RoW 5% (+386% yoy, +187% qoq)

Some other points that stood out in the quarter,

  • 5x+ industry average growth over past 12 months
  • 2000 liquid cooled racks per month are able to be created
  • “Supermicro 4.0 DCBBS”, or Datacenter Building Block Solutions will reduce customers build time from three years to two years
  • new Malaysia facility will start production this November
  • record high backorders
  • short term margin pressure will ease and return to normal range before the end of the fiscal year
  • liquid cooling and DCBBS will start to ship in high volume later this year
  • long term gross margins to benefit from lower manufacturing costs as we scale up production in Malaysia and Taiwan
  • OEM and large data center segment was 64% of revenues compared to 50% in the last quarter
  • one hyper-scaler or CSP was 20% of revenues over the past year (most likely Meta)
  • operating expenses were up 15% qoq and 75% yoy driven by higher compensation and headcount
  • GAAP share count increased 61.4 to 64.2, reflecting 2 stock offerings and convertible bond offering
  • expect gross margins to improve sequentially due to product and customer mix and improving manufacturing efficiency
  • once taking advantage of production operation in Taiwan will start to grow large scale data center customer there
  • “huge capacity in Malaysia”
  • while waiting for Nvidia’s Blackwell, no problem to provide customer will new designs for liquid cooling using H200
  • “we were surprised by the amount of demand that we had in this market”
  • manufacturing efficiency, “has been improving every day”
  • for liquid cooling have 70-80% of the market share
  • not expecting any Blackwell revenue in guide, real volume in March next year, and “that’s why we only guide 26-30B” (Interesting here is the word “only” as if this was low guide)
  • CFO says, we were surprised by acceleration in liquid cooled rack market, so we had to ramp up our supply chain
  • gross margin basis point decline of 430 points, CFO says “half was targeting specific accounts” (price cuts), and other half was higher supply costs (my concern is they are not able to pass the higher supply costs onto their customer)
  • Taiwan and Malaysia factories are getting fully ready for the large scale data center customer
  • going to be selective on which deals they make for sales (does this mean they are declining some orders from customers?)
  • have potential to be more aggressive in scaling and growth could be faster
  • CEO notes Blackwell uses higher power and lot of cases need liquid cooling
  • trying to take market share and “make liquid cooling everywhere”
  • expect over 12% gross margin in next quarter, will be working very hard to move back in more typical range
  • analyst suggests liquid cooling has higher failure rates than air cooling, although caveating not necessarily for Supermicro, response from CEO, liquid cooling is very mature and ready for high volume production (I believe older liquid cooling systems were not as reliable but CEO didn’t provide any numbers on the failure rate question)

Overall I found this to be a disappointing report because of the gross margin issue and the trend was already in the wrong direction with the past quarters of gross margin going from 17.1 → 17.0 → 15.5% → 15.6% → 11.3%

Typically with Supermicro the trading action went off the guide and not as much current quarter results as the guide indicates their capacity. While the guide was strong, the gross margin issue overweighed the otherwise strong forecast.

I am continuing to hold or slightly reduce my position slightly. While I think the company is going to do well on upcoming quarters, there were a lot of questions marks raised in this quarter. I’d really like to see margins go up in subsequent quarters to show this is not a systematic issue with competitive pressures.

The promising points in this quarter for me are the dominant market share of liquid cooling systems, and the rapid growth in Asia that sounds like they cannot meet demand which their newer factories should start serving to soon.

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Just a couple of comments, while I was taking notes from the transcript of the CC I bolded the word "ONLY which I took to mean that they would have guided higher if they had anticipated revenue contribution from blackwell. That’s astonishing and seems to indicate very high confidence in the extraordinary $26B - $30B guide.

Separately, my take away from the use of the word “selective” didn’t necessarily mean that they would be refusing orders. My sense was that they would be more protective of their margins, hence “selective” about discount pricing and only offer to certain customers that they were really trying to bring on board. For the rest of the market they would just bid consistent with their book prices and let the chips fall as they will. This makes sense to me. We are in a rare situation at present where the entire market has been thrown open due to AI, HPC, CSP, etc. During business as usual it’s very hard to win a customer that already has a strong relationship with a vendor. But right now the market is about as close to a “green field” as it ever will be. Customers that they can wean away from another vendor (i.e., Dell) now will likely become a long term customer.

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Brittlerock and other IT folks on this board, I would love your thoughts on this question:

Are companies really that loyal to their server/rack suppliers when it comes to data centers? Is there really a lock in, similar to SaaS (although clearly less strong)?

Or can these data centers be “mix and match” based on who is offering the best deal at the time?

To me, it seems that dramatically lowering your prices and therefore gross margins to the point that it impacts your EPS is a terrible idea for a hardware company.

However, if you told me that this would lock in a massive amount of future gains, it would make sense. Of course that assumes you will be able to raise your prices and still keep your customers loyal to you.

Hence my question.

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A great business is never dedicated to the lives of existing customers or suppliers, when such loyalties are inconsistent with the business plan.
In most cases, loyalty to customers is a virtue, but only when it is a critical part of the business plan. When evolution reshapes the ideal customer base new loyalties emerge as a rational part of the evolution. The same applies to suppliers but to a much less significant degree.

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Most data centers are already a mix… to match SAAS customer requirements. (racks and power not so much) When large hyper scalar companies have their own dedicated servers for their own apps, they will usually try and mix them with their own components/devices to control costs. This is a commodity server market but compatibility, delivery schedule, cost, and quality requirements will steer them to the chosen vendor. An existing vendor that is already proven in these areas will have the tip of the hat. It is unusual for a server vendor to have much of a feature advantage. SCMI is trying to add the water cooling as a feature discriminator. Time will tell.

-zane

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Here is an anecdote; not sure if it’ll help:

Back in the day EMC had a hold of the shop I worked in to where 100% of our storage was EMC. I was running a data warehouse and wanted EMC to configure an array for me in a specific way that I knew would optimize query performance. I had done my homework and found the evidence, arguing for the config I wanted, right in one of EMC’s own manuals.

Nevertheless, EMC told me what I wanted was not possible, and that I’d have to use a config that would have meant burning a LOT of unnecessary disk capacity using a less-performant config. So I went and found another MUCH cheaper vendor, who assured me I could config their array per my specs, and got a quote from them and got the order signed off on.

EMC got wind of it and went straight to the CEO and said they would GIVE me an array for FREE, and that they’d assign someone to do the config I wanted. I was miffed, because by that time I just wanted to get some competition going in the data center. I could see paying top dollar for our Production storage but saw no reason to do so for a less-mission-critical DW application.

In the end, I got a free EMC array, they configured it the way I wanted, it worked great and EMC maintained their stranglehold of 100% of our storage.

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First off, I should explain that I retired in 2010 so a lot of things might have changed since then. But here’s the way things were, not just for Boeing where I worked, but for a lot of big companies.

My full time position for the bulk of my career was an analyst. I did not cut code. When I started at the company around 1980 Boeing was still writing their own applications. COTS had not yet really arrived, and even the off the shelf software that was available would fall far short of Boeing’s requirements. My job was to interview expert business folks from various organizations and write specifications for the coders so that they could build applications that would address the needs of the customer. In this job I wrote specs for more than one inventory system (i.e., tool inventory is just a lot different from parts, and there are differences in requirements for raw material than parts, etc.). The reason I’m relating this is to let you know that I learned a lot about Boeing’s general approach to inventory management.

Later in my career I became an enterprise architect. This job was very forward looking. We were the group that set IT standards for the entire company (more or less). One of the projects I worked on was helping to manage Boeing’s transition from Big Blue (IBM) centralized computing to a network of UNIX servers. Boeing is a big place. This was a massive infrastructure project.

Up until this project Boeing had been a dedicated IBM customer. There was even a common saying back then, “No IT director ever lost his job for buying IBM.” But this was open for bidding. It was a “green field.” In the end, HP (it was just one company then) won the contract for servers.

What I’m getting at here is that long-term vendor relationships was the way Boeing conducted business. Didn’t make any difference if it was airplane parts or IT components. Boeing was not the only company that operated like this. From people I talked to at various IT conferences it as pretty evident that this was common MO for a lot of large companies. Certainly, not all. Some companies still liked the game of pitting vendors against each other for everything from office supplies to whatever they bought that went into their products.

I will say that eventually, that changed to some extent after Boeing merged with McDonnell Douglas. With the merger, the former MacDac CEO got a seat on Boeing’s C-suite. At first he was COO and later he became CEO. His philosophy was that the bottom line was the only thing that mattered. He was focused on cost cutting. He considered QA an inhibition to productivity. I won’t go on with my Stonecipher rant, but I will say that nearly 100% of Boeing’s troubles since 1997 can be traced back to Harry Stonecipher. Boeing didn’t really have many troubles before then.

Anyway, as previously noted, I retired in 2010, so if there was a total shift in IT purchasing after the merger I wasn’t around to see it.

To @Graydrake’s point, I don’t think that is a contradiction to what I said earlier about long-term vendor relations. In fact, IMO, the story I just related is exactly consistent with his comments.

@Iamnzane probably has more recent insight than I do with respect to data center operations. I would just steer you to his assertion that “compatibility, delivery schedule, cost, and quality requirements will steer them to the chosen vendor.” SMCI is focused on these attributes. There are already a gaggle of low cost Asian server suppliers. SMCI does not even try to compete with these companies. If nothing but price matters, then SMCI will not win the bid. But, at the same time, SMCI has the lowest time to delivery, time to online (as much as a year sooner in some cases) and lowest total cost of ownership in the business. These things matter to most of the companies with huge data centers. I will add, SMCI has over 250 stock servers in their catalog, far exceeding any of their competitors. Additionally, they welcome customer engineers to bring their specific use cases to them so that they can customize their product in order to exactly address customer requirements. They do not just rely on their DLC (liquid cooling) as the only discriminator. I have no insight or experience in this, but I would speculate that if a customer wanted different configurations to address different needs, SMCI would be only too happy to accomodate them.

I can’t really add anything to @intjudo’s comment. When I was at Boeing we did bring in a lot of EMC (now part of Dell) storage. They became a dedicated vendor for storage. I have no idea if we ever had an incident like the one @intjudo related.

In any case, IMO SMCI is a very good investment at present. That is unlikely to last forever, and a timely exit will not be an easy decision. Personally, I find selling decisions much harder than buying decisions.

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