It takes an oil tanker a bout 3 weeks to get through the Strait of Hormuz and to a US port. That’s about the same transit time for oil going through there to reach Asia (which is where most of it goes.)
Assuming Iran is successful at closing, or at least slowing down the passage of oil through the Strait, who wants to bet that prices at the pump shoot up long before that three week window, while oil companies are still working off already delivered supplies?
Iran will have zero success at closing off the strait.
I am not sure Iran will do anything at all.
Persia in ancient times was a true power. The culture thinks in those terms.
Iran is dwarfed by the US power. There is no point in crossing us.
The regime MIGHT crumble. That would save a lot of Arab lives.
USN ships will act as shields for “friendly” tankers, just like they did when Iran mined the Gulf, forty years ago. At least, that was the intent, until the USN found that a mine that hardly hurt a tanker, would put a USN frigate a hair from sinking.
The mine blew a 15-foot (4.6 m) hole in the hull, flooded the engine room, and knocked the two gas turbines from their mounts. The blast also broke the keel of the ship; such structural damage is almost always fatal to a vessel. The crew fought fire and flooding for five hours and saved the ship.
Unfortunately, we don’t have Perry class frigates anymore. They were all worn out and retired. Their supposed replacements, the LCS, has been a fiasco. The follow-on, the Constellation class frigates, have been a disaster, with big cost and schedule overruns. So, the USN will need to use the larger Burke class DDs.
The dilemma will be what do we do with a Chinese tanker full of Iranian crude? Don’t really want to open fire on the ship. So, bomb Kharg Island into rubble?
Steve
Israel is taking out Iran’s oil production
They don’t have to close it off, they just have to increase the risk. That likely (hopefully not, but likely) will be enough to boost global oil prices and cause us economic pain.
Iran is mostly Persian, not Arab. They’ve been in conflict with the Arabs since Moses wore short pants. We don’t understand the Middle East. It is a damn fool thing to try to meddle in that part of the world.
What is the alternative?
Friday morning at our grocery store was $2.62. This morning it is $2.95.
Ships Go Off Course Near Hormuz Strait After Navigation Systems Jammed
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-israel-us-latest-news/card/two-chinese-supertankers-go-off-course-near-hormuz-strait-after-navigation-systems-jammed-Jr7mu30oSBNQGh60EoiO
Two Chinese-operated very large crude carriers went off course as they tried to enter the strait after their navigation systems were jammed as a result of military operations in Iran…
The China Shipowners’ Association told its members in a statement to immediately start submitting daily reports on their ship movements through the Gulf of Oman and the Strait of Hormuz. Beijing also called on the international community to maintain stability in the critical shipping lanes of the Persian Gulf, and said it was in touch with Iran about the ongoing conflict.
There was a lot of jamming over the weekend connected with the air strikes.
It is unclear which ISR [intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance] aircraft were employed, however CENTCOM routinely flies ISR missions with RC-135 Rivet Joint and P-8 Poseidon aircraft. U-2 Dragon Lady and MQ-4C Triton high-altitude aircraft might have also been used, as they are often spotted in the area. Heavy jamming was also reported across the entire electromagnetic spectrum.
DB2