Jaak:"We may never stop using petroleum around the world, but we can reduce it by 80-90 percent.
Everyday people are moving out of petroleum based transportation, heating and electricity generation. Everyday we have more EVs, more electrical heating, more efficient homes, more efficient businesses, more renewable electricity, more homes/businesses having solar PV + battery storage.
There are green alternative fuels being developed, better batteries being developed, better heating being developed, better renewables being developed, and better energy storage being developed."
Maybe by 2100 or so…maybe…that assumes that we don’t have WW3 or similar setting back the entire world. The probability of that is near zero.
Even if you eliminate all ‘transportation’ - unlikely still with aviation and heavy construction machines…that is only 20% for surface and 10% for aviation, leaving 70% of oil/gas usage.
It will take 2 generations at least to move to near 100% home heating using electricity…Probably till most of the 30-70 year old houses and apartments reach the end of their useful life and are mowed down for new construction. That in the US. Doubt will go to much of the 3rd world. Europe? who knows. They’ll figure out how to mandate it but right now are literally shaking in their boots worried if they will get through this winter if Russia yanks the Natural Gas supplies. Despite 20-30 years of ‘green’ , most of Europe is highly dependent upon NG. For industry, for home heating, for fertilizer production. Despite all their advanced engineering, they have yet to make all their solar panels work at night, too.
Only reason Norway is mostly EV now is horrendous taxes on gas for last 20 years with prices up to $12/gal plus riding on tollroads and those $10 bridges for FREE. Now those bridges and tollroads face bankruptcy as no one is paying for them but a few fossil fueled cars still on the road and road trips. Also helps if you live in country with massive hydro capacity and hydro generating stations. Like a few provinces in Canada.
In the US, lots of reluctance to go EV till they get 500 miles of range and can be recharged to 90% of range in 15 minutes. Oh , commuters will buy them for 10-15 mile each way trips to work…but they better get fast charge batteries and 500 mile range soon.