Structural HF selling could end this afternoon

So, as I mentioned previously, most HFs have an October-end redemption request period for year-end distributions/return of your capital. With trading now T+2 this means we should be near the end of the selling pressure from HFs, and we could see a slight bounce tomorrow – although if there’s still more leveraged selling to go and margin calls, the equity drop will continue until when and if that’s finished.

A gambling man might start to very slowly tiptoe in at the close today.

Everybody be careful out there.


Still, 50% of companies yet to announce Q3 earnings are in “blackout” restriction, so, no buybacks of their stock by insiders or the company. And the other 50%, for the most part, have yet to come out of black restrictions after having just announced earnings.

Chin up. There’s always November and December.

Now, my good Sir, might you direct me to the Jeff Bezos gofund me page?

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Blackout usually ends 36-48 hours after earnings release, although some firms insist on ‘trading days’ for that to count. So most firms that released are out of blackout by now, fyi.

black out is for 2 to 3 trading days… But then some companies write $34 B check and suspend buyback… Just saying…

There is nothing to indicate the selling is over. A major acquisition happens and the Nasdaq opens up and closes lower. Every sign of a weak market.

If you’re going to talk about the market may as well tell it for what it is.


We’re probably due a bounce, but who cares. The long-term outsized returns of the Fed-fueled bull market that essentially began in 2001 with Greenspan is over. We’ve basically milked that cow as much as we could with extraordinary Fed-backed liquidity/ZIRP (now being unwound finally), along with irresponsible deficit spending. We’re out of bullets for when the next recession hits.

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If you’re going to talk about the market may as well tell it for what it is.

Which is exactly what I did. I pointed out the structural selling issues that have a very good chance of finishing today.

So far so good.


According to MS, yesterday was a > 3 sigma event for Long/Short HF selling of their longs. Just fyi.

The top 10 HF longs underperformed the top 10 shorts by 4.2% yesterday. This is the 2nd worst performance since measurement started in 2010.


Hi Naj,
This whole thread is OT, as it deals with market timing, rather than analyzing stocks. I don’t mind an initial post to give us some information, but please don’t continue to post on an OT thread. Also, please mark the initial post as OT, and ask people not to respond here on this board.
Thanks for your help,


Tomorrow is the end of the month, so why you think it is going to end today? Also, given the mid-term elections I am not sure we are done here until after the elections. Any thought?

Hi Saul,

Gotcha, I will put an OT on any such future posts, which should be few and far between.




So which is it, a bull or a cow?