Fools,
There are some real impressive people on Twitter, and the financial media, who post relentlessly about the idea that the individual investor cannot beat the market. They insist that the only way to beat the market is to 1) Get lucky 2) Act on inside/private Information.
Most of them, from what I can tell are extremely successful. They run funds that have hundreds of millions in assets if not billions. They make big money giving speeches at conferences around the world. They appear on CNBC and Bloomberg. They write columns. They have successful blogs and podcasts. They are quants. They have all the big data. They write reports. They build charts and graphs. You all know who I’m talking about. They seem like good guys - and yes, most of them are men. They brag pretty openly about their wealth. They post pictures of gorgeous sunsets on the beaches near their homes. They talk about skiing in Japan. And the Swiss Alps. They seem to be having a fantastic time. And of note, they don’t seem to be working that hard. For goodness sake they’re writing, posting, blogging, Tweeting and reading and podcasting 24/7!
I do not resent these guys. As they say in the hood, never knock another man’s hustle. I mean this sincerely. I think these guys shares tons of valuable information. More power to them.
But, BUT, (Buttocks!), - they speak with forked tongues. YE FOOLS! Forked be their tongues. They say - no one can beat the market. No one that is… but us. See the problem? See the fork? It’s big enough to pick up a pork sausage the size of the Empire State Building. (Back up G’s, I’m going old school here, when being a Fool meant mocking the absurdity of Wall Street’s “Wisdom.”)
These folks are in an existential crisis. They sense that the cat’s out of the bag. That they don’t know how to beat the market. So they make money just like our SaaS/Cloud companies. They create a model. They plug all their clients into the same funds. And they make money off individual investors subscribing to the model. Sure they make adjustments based on age and risk tolerance. But their product offerings make Chipotle seem like the Cheesecake Factory.
So what’s my point? As with politics, fear sells. Always has, always will. But note that even the noblest financial Wise men are now saying that the most important thing in all of investing is staying calm during big drops. This is gospel truth. But watch how much talk there is now about behavioral finance and psychology. What the Wise men are basically saying now is - you will panic in the crash. We won’t. So the incentive of the financial media is to overcomplicate, hype and TERRORIZE you out of your individual stocks. It is in their interest to promote index funds and long-term-buy-hold strategies because that is the easiest, lowest cost way for them to make the most money.
This is old news, you say? Yes. But what’s changed here is that I think we may have literally found the closest thing there is to a magic formula in the following combination:
Saul + David G. + SA/RB/Bert + this board + The NPI board all working together to find the best Cloud/SaaS stocks.
What I’m saying is I think we are at a Crossroads. I believe that what we have here, with this specific group of people, in this community, at this time, using this method and trusted resources is unprecedented. It’s extraordinary. Fools. This, right here, is the evolution of Fooldom. If Fooldom is Judaism, Saul is the Messiah. If not Saul who? If not this method, which? If not now, when? If not us, who?
I leave you with this question: don’t you think it’s odd how little attention Saul and these boards get in the broader financial media? How good must the performance be for how long before it’s on the cover of every publication? Or will it never be because… it could cost a lot of very powerful people a lot of money?
You. You reading this, Fool. This is a unique time. You’re at the crossroads. The confluence of Saul/Bert/David G/RB/SA/This community/Cloud/SaaS (okay and some other industries) may not happen again. But foundations are being shaken. Attention must be paid.
Above all, the most profound thank you to the heavy hitters here, we all know you are. And all lurkers, who take more than we give, should seriously consider stepping up our game in 2019.
Fool On,
Your Loyal Capital Appreciator,
BroadwayDan
PS: Special Bonus material. Sorry I have to get back to work…
- I no longer factor in how good the company I invest in makes me feel.
- I could not care less whether or not my family actually uses the product.
- Saul’s picks (and Tinker’s and Duma’s and Gaucho’s and Dreamers and Bear’s … ) are all in public. They get my respect. Any stock picker, on any podcast, who doesn’t lay out their picks and analyze them in public, is just clucking.
- It’s in the media’s interest to pick tons of stocks and hold them for generations. Don’t get snookered into thinking that holding automatically counts as mature/sophisticated. It may, sometimes. It’s not what I see happening here.
- Cloud/SaaS is without question the best business model I have ever seen.
- we got nothing to sell but the truth to each other. that makes us dangerous.
Anyway, I hope I have not riled anyone too much or insulted anyone. I do tend to go off horribly about every 7 years, sort of like IT. But this subject, our family fortunes, deserves candor. Anything less is an insult. Peace out y’all.
PSS -
“Puke Skywalker, but sound like Chewbacca when I talk
Full of such blind rage I need a seeing eye dog
Can’t even find the page, I was writing this rhyme on
Oh, it’s on a rampage, couldn’t see what I wrote I write small
It says ever since I drove a 79 Lincoln with white walls
Had a fire in my heart, and a dire desire to aspire, to Die Hard
So as long as I’m on the clock punching this time card
Hip hop (FOOLDOM!) ain’t dying on my watch”
Eminem - “Rhyme or Reason”