Seriously OT: Scattered thoughts

For the second day in a row, there is not a single post from Saul’s in the Top 25 of the Fool’s “Best Of” list. Indeed, there are almost no new posts on the entire board.

Has something happened? Have they decamped for another place even though the Fool says it is retaining that board? Or is it that the high-flier stocks have and continue to crater, presaging a mood shift in market investing in general?

Will angel investing and venture capital (at last) see diminishing inflows?

Is this a (pretty secret) tell? Or is something else going on?

In other news, I am seeing a lot of stealth employment going on. My Kroger just expanded hours, one more in the morning and one in the afternoon. That doesn’t seem like a lot, but at 10 or 20 employees in the store, that’s equivalent to a full week of employment for a person every day. Multiply by the number of stores, it’s “employment.”

Both Lowe’s and Home Depot have done the same; another hour later at night. So has my local Ace hardware. Multiply this across thousands and thousands of locations, you’re talking some serious paychecks.

Likewise I continue to see, although in fewer numbers, “Jobs” signs in front of fast food and other places. More often now I see “SignUp on Wednesday” or generic “We’re hiring” signs about.

At the street level, at least, it seems the economy is still kicking it. Reporting season is upon us, so the next couple weeks will be important: I’m predicting roaring profits, thanks to the “We’re having a price increase next week, so sign now” mantra that’s become popular. And, of course, actual price increases without the attendant cost increases that are fattening bottom lines everywhere except middle and low-end consumers paychecks.

And say, has anybody tried to hire a contractor lately? Whew!

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For the second day in a row, there is not a single post from Saul’s in the Top 25 of the Fool’s “Best Of” list. Indeed, there are almost no new posts on the entire board

The board has been more quiet than normal for at least a month now. I’d say several. That is telling. There is something else telling too. Fewer monthly portfolio reviews. And more telling, many of them not only say what their current YTD return is (which is awful), but then go to say how far up they are since “Jan 2020” or “Jan 2021”. It’s like they are admitting this year they are in deep trouble “but if you look in the past over the last year or two…”.

They are living in the past and unable to admit the future is not too bright.

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And say, has anybody tried to hire a contractor lately? Whew!

We need a new wooden privacy fence, and a roof. Both are more expensive than I was expecting. Prices only guaranteed for 2 weeks, then they get re-worked based on current materials and labor expenses. And I can’t commit to doing either in that window, so I will be paying more.

Now to get the neighbors on-board with the shared fence repairs.

For the second day in a row (19th and 20th), there is not a single post from Saul’s in the Top 25 of the Fool’s “Best Of” list.

Selective sample pool.

If you look at 4/18, there are posts with recs of 95, 82, and 61 - which would make them #1, #2, and #3 on the Best Of board if they were posted today.

Change your view from last 24 hours to last 7 days and you will get a different perspective.

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It’s a hyper growth stock board, and people are feeling the pain of the downturn in hyper
growth stocks. But I take a contrarian view, think it’s a good thing that board activity
is down, perhaps getting closer to a bottom in hyper growth.

Also think that there are/were a lot of people that are finding out that they don’t have the same stomach for handling downturns in highly concentrated stock portfolios that Saul has. Easy to be resolved when they’re soaring upward, not so easy when they are getting hammered. I knew I would not/could not emotionally handle a highly concentrated port, even when the stocks were soaring.

There is something to the old adage “sleep well at night” as it pertains to stock ownership.

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There is something to the old adage “sleep well at night” as it pertains to stock ownership.

My “Saul” type investments are up 124% (vs the S&P at 55%) over the last two years - even with them being down 27% YTD.

An extra 70% return over two years buys a lot of sleeping pills.

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Goofy,

Does this mean when you write a hatchet piece on someone that Saul’s board is not in your way on the “Best Of”?

This is an opportunity for you to slow down and comprehend the other guy’s point of view before writing one of your hatchet pieces. It might stop your thoughts entire to understand the posts, but there is less competition now for likes so you are under less pressure.

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And say, has anybody tried to hire a contractor lately? Whew!

The small pueblos scattered about the Mexican countryside near me have been drained of trainable mentally stable young men – all sucked “al norte” by USA’s economy and idiotic immigration policies. Two guys with young families who have worked for me often over the last two years and were doing well here, both with no desire to move, suddenly disappeared, unable to resist the huge bounties being offered by employers up North.

david fb

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"My “Saul” type investments are up 124% (vs the S&P at 55%) over the last two years - even with them being down 27% YTD.

An extra 70% return over two years buys a lot of sleeping pills."

same or similar here. But a lot of newcomers to that board did not have the benefit of
that runup.

Not ragging on Saul, utmost respect for him, he’s very open and transparent, as well
as telling people to not just copy him. His resolve for basing his decisions on the financial
numbers that the companies are achieving ( or not achieving ) is something I am really
trying to emulate. But I don’t have the same risk tolerance as he does, and a lot of people
that frequent that board are finding out they don’t have that same level of tolerance, either.

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The board has been more quiet than normal for at least a month now.

The bottom was on Monday, March 14. The relief rally ended two weeks later. I bet lots of folks sold and are happy to be out.

https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp…

but then go to say how far up they are since “Jan 2020” or “Jan 2021”.

Perfectly logical! If you bought the shares during 2020 this bear market is no big deal. I started buying TSLA late in September 2020 at an average of $428.96. The lowest TSLA hit was $756.04 intraday, up 76%. The real pain is felt by the yield chasers who got in late – late 2021. TSLA fell a lot less than most Saul and ARK Invest stocks many of which fell 80% or more.

They are living in the past and unable to admit the future is not too bright.

Wrong! Investing is a long term game. The near future might be bleak but short of a nuclear war the longer term future is bright. Somebody on uTube calculated how many TSLA shares you need today to have a nice $5,000 a month retirement by 2030. Less than 100! Less than $100K today!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wTpRQ1t1kI4

The Captain

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But a lot of newcomers to that board did not have the benefit of
that runup.

Agreed!

My #1 complaint there - and why I stopped participating - was the group-think that led so many new visitors astray. Contrary voices were hammered into the dust - or simply had their posts removed. There was way too much irrational enthusiasm for some stocks.

Helping people make money should also be about helping people keep money.

Hawkwin
Who has lost 40% of his investable net worth three times in the just the last four years (Dec 18, March 20, and Feb 22), and it was exceptionally painful each and every time.

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Contrary voices were hammered into the dust - or simply had their posts removed.

I don’t think I would characterize Saul’s Board that way, at least not without qualification. I’ve been a lurker there almost from the beginning and I know better to post since also from the beginning it was clear that Saul was presenting, asking for, and encouraging deep-dives on all of the companies brought to the forum. I didn’t have the requisite energy to devote to that so I didn’t kibbutz.

Certainly, contrary voices could be “hammered into the dust” when they did not do much analysis on companies they brought up, or when they become overly repetitive. And the posts that were removed were virtually always in blatant disregard of the board’s rules.

Is there groupthink? A little, I’ll grant you, but the regular posters are a pretty good group of thinkers overall.

Denny is correct: investing is a long-term game. Those who came to Saul’s board in August-November 2021 for the first time and bought everything Saul had are not doing so well. These market movements have happened before, of course, and most of Saul’s picks recovered through them and did quite well. No one knows the future, but the long-term game is mostly where it’s at.

Pete

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Delighted to see you using Yiddish!

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kibbutz](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kibbutz)

Kibbitz (the word you actually wanted to use)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kibitzer_(disambiguation)

:slight_smile:

Wendy

Certainly, contrary voices could be “hammered into the dust” when they did not do much analysis on companies they brought up

To clarify, it was more the “questioning” of some of the excessive predictions that were hammered or just removed. Thus, the groupthink.

For example, when a newcomer was predicting that Zoom was going to have 182 million individual paid subscribers and nearly $33 billion in annual revenue, it was the contrary voices (mine) to that prediction that were hammered. I didn’t need to do a lot of analysis to state such a prediction was terrible and that no one should invest in Zoom based on such a prediction.

Again, I have made a ton of money from some of the recs there but that is probably offset by the amount of money others have lost because few if any were telling them to pull back from the excessive predictions and irrational exuberance.

(I’ve shared the following with this board previously):

https://discussion.fool.com/when-in-fact-tribes-banding-together…

Note, the OP, the one that predicted 182 million subscribers and annual revenue of $33 billion for Zoom, received 59 recs. My reply urging caution received just 8.

And of course, Zoom is down roughly 30% from that prediction, has only 500,000 paying customers (4th qtr 2021), and only $4 billion in revenue (2021). Zoom has a negative 2 yr return - losing its entire Covid gains.

Hawkwin
Ironically typing this while an Adobe meeting with 200 participants is running in the background.

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Kibbitz (the word you actually wanted to use)

Yes, indeed. Dang autocorrect! As with many, I’m a much better proofreader of others writing than of my own.

Thanks!

Pete

They are living in the past and unable to admit the future is not too bright.

There must be a few “Saul Stockers” who got out when the “getting was good”. Those are the folks I’d be following.

intercst

Delighted to see you using Yiddish!

Explain schlemiel and schlimazel. LOL

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aLsukIsrcMI

The Captain

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Was today (4/20) de-FAANG day?
Both Meta Platforms/Facebook (FB) and Netflix (NFLX) took a beating, in particular, Netflix, down > 35%

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Was today (4/20) de-FAANG day?

4/20 is a Musk Day!

The Captain

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For the second day in a row, there is not a single post from Saul’s in the Top 25 of the Fool’s “Best Of” list. Indeed, there are almost no new posts on the entire board.

Has something happened? Have they decamped for another place even though the Fool says it is retaining that board? Or is it that the high-flier stocks have and continue to crater, presaging a mood shift in market investing in general?

I’ve been tracking the most popular stocks in the SAUL port since they chased me off the board in November and the best performing of those (Zoom Info) is down 20% while most are down between 40-80%. I believe that a lot of board followers probably started investing in the “Saul Method” over the summer, in which case they have been gutted. I can’t imagine that they are attracting new investors, except some value investing vultures who have started to sniff corpses like Upstart (and I mean that in the kindest way as Warren himself has been called a vulture investor). It feels like this fall is far from over, and that we will soon be looking at a full market capitulation in the coming months. I suspect the Saul board will be dead this time next year.

PP

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