Supreme Court Strikes Down 100 yr old law

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
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{Look for an increase in the sale of smaller ‘carry’ pistols.}

The Supreme Court has struck down New York’s century-old law restricting the carrying of concealed firearms, its first major Second Amendment decision in more than a decade and a ruling that could lead to more guns on the streets.

Writing for the 6-3 majority, Justice Clarence Thomas said Thursday that the law’s requirement of New Yorkers who want a permit to carry a handgun in public to show “proper cause” that the weapon is ?specifically needed for self-defense “violates the Fourteenth Amendment by preventing law-abiding citizens with ordinary self-defense needs from exercising their right to keep and bear arms in public.”

Though the decision concerns New York law, it is likely to affect a handful of other states with similar permitting regimes, including California, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey and Rhode Island.

…

https://nypost.com/2022/06/23/supreme-court-overturns-ny-law…

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Some years ago, the court overturned a DC ban on handguns, saying an entire class of weapons that could be used for personal defense in the home could not be banned. That ruling also outlawed laws requiring guns kept in the home to have a trigger lock or be disassembled, because that would impede use of the gun.

It’s just a matter of time before someone comes before the court complaining “I am terrible shot. A handgun isn’t good enough. I need a Mac-10 so I can spray 30 rounds at that sound I hear in the night, to defend myself”…and a ban on machine guns that has stood since the 1930s is overturned.

Steve

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DD"The Supreme Court has struck down New York’s century-old law restricting the carrying of concealed firearms, its first major Second Amendment decision in more than a decade and a ruling that could lead to more guns on the streets."

Legally owned guns, and permits can still be required. Governments cannot ‘withhold’ permits to restrict use of legally owned and carried self protection guns.

Criminals already have easy access and carry guns, of course, illegally. With ‘woke’ DAs, most get a slap on the wrist if caught which is a large part of the problem. If you made illegal possession of a handgun a 2 or 5 year prison term, mandatory, no plea bargain down to ‘disturbing the peace’ or similar, gun crime would plummet and inner cities would be a lot safer. Simply putting away criminals for illegal gun possession or use of a firearm in a felony crime would cut gun violence by 90%. Same for drug dealers - should be charged with ‘criminal enterprise’ and locked away for years in prison.

Convicted Felons cannot legally own a gun of any type. Nor carry one.

There are 5,000 to 20,000 ‘gun laws’ on the books. Most are not enforced or allow ‘plea bargains’ making most useless and keeping few career criminals off the streets. Some federal, some state, even some local.

As Chicago is discovering, being the lead city for ‘gun violence’ is causing major companies to flee the state. 5000 jobs just announced moving to FL. Boeing moving HQ to VA. Caterpillar moving to TX. Retirees bailing out taking a billion in assets from the state. High taxes and a city not safe to be in - well, what did they expect?

t

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telegraph: As Chicago is discovering, being the lead city for ‘gun violence’ is causing major companies to flee the state. 5000 jobs just announced moving to FL. Boeing moving HQ to VA. Caterpillar moving to TX. Retirees bailing out taking a billion in assets from the state.

Caterpillar’s corporate headquarters is in Deerfield, IL, an affluent suburb of Chicago with a median household income of $153,000 and a median property value of $518,000… not in the city of Chicago. The 2019 crime rate in Deerfield was 6.6 times lower than the U.S. average.

And Caterpillar will still have 17,000 employees in Illinois after the move, including about 12,000 in the Peoria area.

If your ‘5000 jobs just announced moving to FL’ refers to Citadel, it’s 1,000 jobs. And Ken Griffin has been feuding with Pritzker since he was elected. Evidently Griffin does not see Pritzker losing the election this Fall.

BTW, Kellogg just announced the company’s corporate headquarters will move from Battle Creek, Michigan, to Chicago… so some go, others come.

Since you mentioned retirees, Illinois is the only Midwestern state that completely exempts 401(k), IRA and pension income from tax. Chicago winters likely are more of a factor for older folks leaving the state.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-14/caterpill…

https://datausa.io/profile/geo/deerfield-il

https://www2.illinois.gov/rev/questionsandanswers/Pages/99.a…

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As Chicago is discovering, being the lead city for ‘gun violence’ is causing major companies to flee the state. 5000 jobs just announced moving to FL. Boeing moving HQ to VA. Caterpillar moving to TX.

I think this is an illogical conclusion based on, well, facts.

All 4 states have similar per capita deaths per guns, TX & FL slightly worse than IL and VA slightly better.

AW

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"Since you mentioned retirees, Illinois is the only Midwestern state that completely exempts 401(k), IRA and pension income from tax. Chicago winters likely are more of a factor for older folks leaving the state.:

= ====

not to worry

"The state of Illinois has the second-highest property taxes in the country. The statewide average effective tax rate is 2.16%, more than double the national average. "

IL has the second highest property tax rates in the country.

What is the sales tax rate in Cook County? The minimum combined 2022 sales tax rate for Cook County, Illinois is 8%.

IL gets a lot of taxes from residents and ‘renters’.

The exemption of pension and tax deferred savings helps but not enough to offset winters and other high taxes, cost of living there.

Spent 3 years there a long time ago. 20 below temps a few times, feet of snow at times, horrible commutes…and that was more than enough to convince me to start moving ‘south’. Hit 25 below in my far suburb once . Snowed 18 inches one time. What a mess. 80% of workers at plant took hours and hours to get home and some were stuck overnight. Had enough.

t.

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Years of statistics and links.

Today, has cuiminated in?

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“All 4 states have similar per capita deaths per guns, TX & FL slightly worse than IL and VA slightly better.”

The problem is the CITIES of CHicago…Detroit…Washington DC…Miami…New York City. St Louis…Houston…Dallas…

Not the WHOLE state.

the problem is not Schaumburg or Elk Grove or Fox Grove IL or PLano TX or downstate IL for the most part.

Using whole states is not revealing where the actual problems are.

It’s like saying all of IL votes Democrat because the folks in Chicago DO, or TX is blue due to the fact that most in Houston vote ‘red’.

The real issue is putting gun offenders away - where they won’t do the crime again for years and years.

Project Exile - what is really needed

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Exile

"Within the first year (1997–1998) Project Exile resulted in:[2]

372 persons indicted for Federal gun violations.
222 arrestees (more than 74 percent) held without bond.
196 persons sentenced to an average of 55 months of imprisonment.
During the first year of Project Exile (1998), homicides in Richmond declined 33%, for the lowest number since 1987, and armed robberies declined 30%. In 1999, homicides declined another 21%.[2] By 2007, homicides in Richmond were down to 57 compared to 122 in the year before Project Exile.[4]"

Now that is real results. Why isn’t it used EVERYWHERE?

t.

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The problem is the CITIES of CHicago…Detroit…Washington DC…Miami…New York City. St Louis…Houston…Dallas…

Not the WHOLE state.

The per capita violent crime rate or murder rate in Chicago isn’t all that high either.

Sorting for highest per capital murder rate for Q1, 2022, Chicago ranks 15th in the country, below Cincinnati, Memphis, Kansas City, Atlanta, Louisville, Norfolk VA, and Indianapolis, among others.

Cities with the Highest Increase in Homicide Rates During Covid

https://wallethub.com/edu/cities-homicide-rate/94070

Chicago has a very large population, so it rolls up large absolute numbers, which makes it a target for the hype and hysteria obsessed media to scream about.

Steve

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telegraph: The real issue is putting gun offenders away - where they won’t do the crime again for years and years.

Project Exile - what is really needed

Except there’s conflicting data on Project Exile.

Yet in Rochester, like everywhere else, no one knows whether Exile works. In the program’s 18 years, judges have handed out 633 sentences for a total of 3,411 years in federal prison. But the city had 24 gun murders last year — giving it a rate more than four times New York City’s. And community relations with police, as in many cities, are strained. The enthusiasm for Exile appears to be based more in rhetoric than in evidence…

University of California, Berkeley, economist Steven Raphael and his co-author, University of Chicago economist Jens Ludwig, say Exile probably didn’t reduce homicides at all. They argue that after the first couple of years of declines – when crime rates were declining all throughout the country, even in cities that did not employ Project Exile – homicide rates started going back up again, rising as often as they fell.

Richard Rosenfeld, a criminologist at the University of Missouri, say that Richmond’s gun homicide rate fell by 22 percent annually from 1999 to 2001, compared with a rate of 10 percent for comparable cities but, after the first couple years? Well, up again… and there’s the rub.

So who’s right?

Researchers say that it’s impossible to control for all the other factors that can affect reported crime numbers. Believers say that when murders have fallen, it proves Exile’s success. When murders have risen, they say the program just needs to be stronger.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/homicide-in-rochester/

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The problem is the CITIES of…

You can even go smaller than that, the problem is certain neighborhoods. My former home town was chronically in the top 25 murder per capita lists. But you stayed out of a couple neighborhoods and things were fine.

JLC

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I understand that in Chicago the first offense plea bargained away is carrying a handgun while committing a crime or when being a felon. No link since figures are hard to obtain. I am not even sure what percentage of murders result in a lengthy prison sentence. Which is not the same thing as being “cleared?” "
https://chicago.suntimes.com/2022/4/4/23006300/chicago-polic….

Flint MI has a murder clearance rate of only 17.5% https://www.criminallegalnews.org/news/2018/feb/16/us-murder….
Crime does pay in many of our big cities.

And what about all those shootings and stabbings that were not fatal? The incarceration rate is probably even lower .

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Conflicts are common, and adding in firearms doesn’t help. Allowing concealed carry is linked to more violent crime.

— links —
“Permissive concealed carry permitting laws are linked to 13-15% higher violent crime rates ten years after adoption compared to states that require people to cite a specific need for carrying a gun.”
https://publichealth.jhu.edu/departments/health-policy-and-m…

Number of states in 1980 and 2021 with:
no issue laws, which generally banned concealed carry,
may issue laws, which afforded law enforcement discretion in issuing concealed carry permits,
and shall issue laws, which do not afford law enforcement discretion in issuing concealed carry permits.

                     1980  2021
ban concealed carry   21     0
  may issue permit    24     8
shall issue permit     4    21
  no permit needed     1    21

Right-to-Carry Laws and Firearm Workplace Homicides: A Longitudinal Analysis (1992-2017), October 17, 2019
“From 1992 to 2017, the average effect of having an right-to-carry law was significantly associated with 29% higher rates of firearm WPHs (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.14, 1.45)… Over the past 26 years, the adoption of shall-issue concealed carry laws, or right-to-carry (RTC) laws, by the majority of US states has, by design, likely increased firearm exposure in the general population. States with RTC laws either issue permits to carry a concealed firearm on a “shall”-issue basis, giving no discretion to authorities over who can carry a concealed firearm, or do not require a permit to carry a concealed firearm.”
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31622144/

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You can even go smaller than that, the problem is certain neighborhoods. My former home town was chronically in the top 25 murder per capita lists. But you stayed out of a couple neighborhoods and things were fine.

From most reports I’ve seen, Chicago is similar.