Seems K. Quon is of the same mind I am which is the potential, not the timeline…for now.
Read his comment of mid October, pre the second 50% haircut:
(FYI only)
Author’s reply » Mike,
Its easier to be reassured when you realize how difficult it will be for the company to fail at this point. I understand there is always the risk, and I’ve seen a few failures unfold in my experience on the markets. But its living through these to see how the company’s made the right moves even at the cost of short-term pain. This is especially the case having following the biofuel industry for close to a decade. Though few might understand, Solazyme has managed to carefully navigate through some very dangerous white-water rapids over the last decade.
As a shareholder I know you want more than they’re willing to give, and I do too at times. All the while, its very easy to flip the table around and think about what is I would do in their shoes. I know the company’s attempted to explain their silence on many occasions, but shareholders dont understand the benefit of closed doors. There are advantages to keeping metrics hidden in order to maintain negotiating power. Same goes w/ not sounding too giddy about one company over another competitor who is also a client that’s more important. etc etc.
I’m sure ecover didn’t help much in terms of being more open, but apart from partner protection, there’s really just an element of hard truths investors dont help with. If I told you I made 100 tons this quarter would you hold me accoutnable for it even if I knew I’d make 1000 tons next quarter but could not tell you that I would? What if my cost metrics could fall another 50% next quarter and announcing it today would shock investors now, should I be blunt about it or avoid the topic altogether? If I faced contamination on a daily basis but knew that I could overcome it just as frequently should I tell you? If I could stall a panic over a construction woe for another year because I could overcome it in that time frame, should I tell you? If I maintain a track record of silence in order to not have to address distracting issues or set expectations for monthly progress that can severely hurt our future, should I commit to it?
I’m not saying these are the case, but what if they were?
If at the end of the decade, I’ve made a company that is on the path to becoming a fundamental industry giant that has helped improve the world, should I the company be willing to endure a few harsh critics?
The oil is pumping now when four years ago it was not - progress is underway. I don’t have the answers you’re looking for, but I’ve seen my share of train wrecks to personally believe this isn’t one of them.
If on the other hand you see smoke that I do not, do not feel hindered to flee the scene. No flight is ever pain-free, but it could save your life. But whatever smoke you’re seeing, I just don’t see the same and I like to think I’ve done my share of the research to get a good sense of what’s out there. Will there be better opportunities to get back in at another time? Possibly, there could be. But then we’re just talking about a difference in investment time tables and risk tolerance.
-Kevin