Nice overview of the tanker market in 2023 from shipping broker Gibson.
Just the big items - China reopening, sanctions on Russia, Panama Canal effects
Table with comparison between 2022 and 2023
As the table points out, across all vessel categories, 2023 has cooled off considerably vs 2022. However, that does not mean the owners aren’t making profits. That US-Brazil run is still very (hugely) profitable @ $35,000 daily. The Aframax and Suezmax routes are also very profitable
What are the chances of the Suez/Red Sea route seeing more shutdowns from the Houthi in Yemen?
Attacks from Houthi-controlled Yemen hit two ships
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/uk-maritime-agency-probing-reports-further-incident-near-bab-al-mandab-strait-2023-12-15/
Two of the world’s largest shipping firms, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, said they had suspended passage through the Red Sea strait, a vital crossing for global commerce, on Friday…
In a statement, the UK defence secretary, Grant Shapps, said: “Overnight, HMS Diamond shot down a suspected attack drone which was targeting merchant shipping in the Red Sea…
A US guided-missile destroyer shot down 14 drones launched by the Houthis in the Red Sea on Saturday, the US Central Command said.
DB2
Good question.
To my knowledge, the Houthi attacks have been more specifically targeted.
The Suezmax and Aframax direction would typically be from the Mediterranean i.e. From Russia, headed to India. Would the Houthis attack those ships?
Mentioned briefly in the Gibson summary - Brazil and Guyana. The latter, initially sent their production to China. However, my understanding is that some of the production has shifted to Europe. That would likely be Aframax and Suezmax runs. That would avoid the Red Sea. OTOH, Aframax cousins i.e. LR2 would likely be doing refined fuel runs via Red Sea.
DB2
Among liner companies, that’s
#2 Maersk
#3 CMA CGM
#5 Hapag Lloyd
#10 ZIM
These would be post-Christmas runs, so less need to get to Europe for the holidays. But, it still starts to stretch the container fleet if a whole bunch of larger vessels are re-routing via the Cape of Good Hope to reach their European destinations.
It also messes up things for Egypt - both as cargo destination and from a rev perspective (less Suez traffic)
Would they have to refuel in, say, South Africa?
DB2
My reference was more focused on the time factor
Not sure on the large vessel fuel dynamics. Seems like fuel would also come into play. But my sense is that it is not a complete refuel at the transit stop. A South African port makes sense. But given the size of the vessels, the larger vessels are probably not coming into port, so maybe just an area with fairly still waters for refueling. Offshore Namibia is another possibility.