Tariffs will impact potash for fertilizer. Mosaic and Nutrien could see 30 to 50% reduction in production

Fertilizer is one product likely to be impacted by tariffs. The three numbers on the bag are N-P-K. The K is potash and most comes from Canada. Mosaic and Nutrien mines it there. CF industries is the best known fertilizer company.

Figures indicate cost of potash will move from $444/ton to $555/ton with a 25% tariff. But if potash can be imported for $30/ton shipping cost, imports from elsewhere will take most of the market. That implies a cost increase to $470/ton. That’s a modest 7% cost increase.

The US potash requirement is abt 7mm t/yr. US production is insignificant (0.4mm t/yr). Production in Canada may be down by 30 to 50% impacting especially Mosaic and Nutrien,

Nitrogen and phosphate should be ok. Both are domestic.


Sources

https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/agriculture-investing/potash-investing/top-potash-countries-by-production/

The vast majority of potash comes from Canada. US ranks tenth. Intrepid Potash (NYSE:IPI) and the Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS) produce in Carlsbad, New Mexico and Utah…

Canada production of MOP 2022 is 13mm metric tons (MOP is muriate of potash or potassium chloride usually produced in Canada. SOP sulfate of potash can be mined in New Mexico.)
US production 0.4mm metric tons MOP

https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/crops/article/2025/01/15/retail-fertilizer-prices-start-2025

Potash price is $444/ton.

https://www.intrepidpotash.com/potash/

Intrepid supplies 3.5% of US Muriate of Potash requirement. 258K tons/yr potash.
US requirement is 7.37mm t/yr.

Mosaic 10K

https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001285785/555393c6-bb45-44ba-9f0b-259b735e8d1b.pdf p40

Mosaic production 2023
Kmag production at Carlsbad 2.3mm tons
MOP in Canada 26.1mm tons in 2023


US Requirement 7.37 mm tons
Intrepid 0.258 mm tons/yr
Imports 7 mm tons

Price $444/ton
w 25% tariff: $555/ton
Domestic production minimal

Imports $444 + $30/ton = $474/ton. 7% cost increase.

Mosaic will lose 26.2 less 7mm = 19.2 27% decline

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Swaps can be used to work around the tariffs. Suppose a producer in Morocco sells mostly to Europe. Canadian supplier can agree to ship to customers in Europe so Morrocan producer has capacity to ship to US customers.

Result is small increase in shipping costs–less than the impact of tariffs.

Looks like the US has viable options other than Canada for potash…doc

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Yes, imports from non-tariff countries at higher cost. Domestic production is minimal for potash.