Potash: Mosaic reduces production in Canada


Does this imply slowing economy? Surprising because high grain prices should be good for agriculture. But high fertilizer prices, especially nitrogen fertilizer, makes farming costs high. Also high diesel prices.

Article says reduced supply from Belarus and Russia, second and third largest suppliers, have driven up prices. Somehow supply now seems to be in balance.

Of course, fertilizer sales are best in Spring. And winter weather can be very cold in Saskatchewan.

Mosaic says this is a temporary inventory adjustment but we shall see.

Somehow you expect grain to be most resistant to recession. People still have to eat.


A puzzling sign for sure. I have also noticed that lately my farm investment, FPI, has been really under-performing the last 60-90 days as well. Put 2 and 2 together. But like you said, people gotta eat even in recession and was one reason I got into FPI, DE, AGCO.

You asked if the economy is slowing. I think it is but the signs are murky. I saw an article lately about this very problem, because different parts of the economy are doing different things. Some parts are slowing down, some are accelerating. So it’s a difficult question to answer. Inflation is still high, yet unemployment is very low, wages are still going up. I have a feeling that what is going on right now simply does not fit any economic model we currently have. In other words, I don’t think anyone can actually know where we are headed right now.

The part that seems confusing is full employment.

The efforts to control inflation take effect slowly. Rising prices deplete savings. Consumers run up credit cards. Eventually they have to make choices. Meanwhile businesses cut back anticipating a slow down. Rising interest rates seems to impact home sales first (and business investments). Used car prices are falling. House prices are falling. Construction is likely to slow. Pent up auto demand from when cars were hard to find may still be around. Six months from now, we may see the full effect. It takes a while.

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