TDOC news

Investment Analysis Clubs Saul’s Investing Discussions
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https://ir.teladochealth.com/news-and-events/investor-news/p…

News release this morning - another thing I had no idea TDOC was doing. Helping humanity. There are lots of medical professionals who donate their time to go on medical mission trips to countries with poor health care. It sounds like this service will enable them to donate time in small chunks without having to travel there.

Long TDOC 11%.

FWIW - I read something yesterday that said Cathie Wood named TDOC her #1 rec for 2021 at a recent investing event. (NOTE - I tried to find the link for that, but could not - so I’m not sure of the source. I think I read it in a tweet.)

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Thanks AK. Your post sent me looking for this:

https://www.sohnheartsandminds.com.au/media/sohn-investment-…

(h/t @richard_chu97)

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Thanks for the investment conference link, ashersdad. If I could pull a couple key quotes from the article for anyone that didn’t take the time to read it, they would be the following (the quotes are from Cathie Wood)…

She said she expected that Teladoc would see “exponential growth” because of its extensive data in the virtual health care market.

I’d say they’re already there with last quarter’s growth at 109% (even without Livongo’s 125% growth thrown in the mix yet), and this quarter’s growth for the combined company estimated (by me, see post #74476) to also be over 100%.

Teladoc currently has 60 million members around the world.

“We are going to see it go to 220 million in the next five years – an annual compound growth rate of more than 30 per cent.”

She said the company was also going to be able to expand the monetisation of its membership offering them a broader range of services.

“We believe its revenue will growth at nearly 50 per cent annual compound over the next five years, by which time it will only have six per cent of the addressable market,” she said.

I agree with this statement, and that 50% compounded rate grows their current $1.4B run rate to over $10B in 5 years. When the market sees this play out, I believe they will then get the valuation they deserve.

Foodles - long TDOC (#2 position)

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FWIW - Beth also likes TDOC a lot…
Beth says, in public interviews, that she sees a lot of VC money flowing into Telehealth which means this is still very early trend with massive potential… all of which makes intuitive sense but its good to see that confirmation.

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Obviously this stock has some major support and I respect that. But I have to say, again, how much I distrust this company. The following paragraph from their site is the most horse****-sounding one I have ever read from such a large, widely admired company…

Teladoc Health empowers all people everywhere to live their healthiest lives by transforming the healthcare experience. Recognized as the world leader in whole person virtual care, Teladoc Health uses proprietary health signals and personalized interactions to drive better health outcomes across the full continuum of care, at every stage in a person’s health journey.

“All people everywhere” - According to this site linked below 41% of human beings do not have the Internet.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/617136/digital-populatio…

That claim is objectively false despite their work with initiatives in less developed nations.

“… live their healthiest lives” - idea that they will meaningfully impact diet, exercise, sleep, breathing, career, relationships, sexuality, questionable at best, therefore the claim is grossly exaggerated as all these things impact health.

“Transforming the healthcare experience” - going to the doctor and being seen, touched, talked to in reality, in person, will always be the best option.

“Whole person virtual care” - New age, BS-speak so bad it could replace finger-in-mouth to induce upchucking.

“Proprietary health signals” - I’m sure there’s some truth here, but unproven, which is why Livongo had to create their own fake research paper…

Are Livongo’s Outcomes Real?
https://dismgmt.wordpress.com/2019/08/26/are-livongos-outcom…

“drive better health outcomes across the full continuum of care, at every stage in a person’s health journey”

This is all the language of hucksters - “Full continuum” “Every stage” and my favorite “health journey.” They all but offer a free stay in a time share.

Again, lots of excellent investors love this company. I get it. But TDOC marketing triggers my BS meter so hard it just exploded. For me, when I hear this much hyperbole and unprovable claims, I can only see this story ending in disaster. In fact, I predict investors in TDOC will experience the full spectrum of negative emotions - guilt, shame, pain, regret - as they calculate the losses incurred during this stage of their wealth journey.

Never fun to call other people’s babies ugly but we all owe each other our unfiltered honesty. If it walks like a duck and talks like a duck it’s rarely a golden goose.

Best,

BD

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Hi Dan,

Not sure if you have an axe to grind with the companies or what (seems like it). But looking at their past revenue growth it is obvious to see there is a pretty big need for their products. But hey… maybe large numbers of insurance companies weren’t doing their due diligence on the product and signing up hoping it lowers their diabetes care costs and juicing LVGO’s accelerating revenues.

There is a certain CEO of the a demand side programmatic advertising company that had a lot of people’s BS meters going off. The stock has been a rocket ship. I would keep your axe out of it and let the financials and market opportunity of the companies speak for themselves.

Bnh

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If it walks like a duck and talks like a duck it’s rarely a golden goose

I love that expression. Sorry, I will steal it :slight_smile:

To your point: There is public relations hype, then there is real dishonesty. I think those statements are the former, not the latter. Read/listen to conference calls. Are direct pointed questions answered? I know they are asked. Management aren’t politicians who can dictate what the questions will be. Investment companies will ask real questions about growth, market penetration, other germane stuff.

Even if you know little about a field, you can recognize dodges, side-steps and half-answers. If their responses are like that, you know the question touched a nerve.

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To BroadwayDan:

“You’re entitled to your own opinion, you’re not entitled to your own facts” – Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Facts:

  1. 2019/03/15: Livongo Announces Promising Results of Remote Blood Pressure Monitoring Using Connected Cuff and Coaching
    https://ir.livongo.com/news-releases/news-release-details/li…
    Presented at American College of Cardiology’s Annual meeting
    Study conducted on 708 participants
  2. 2019/06/10: Study Demonstrates Livongo Members More Empowered and Less Distressed in Diabetes Self-Management
    https://ir.livongo.com/news-releases/news-release-details/st…
    Study conducted on 957 participants
  3. 2019/11/14: Livongo Study Demonstrates Sustained Blood Pressure Reduction for People Living with Both Diabetes and Hypertension Outside Traditional Care Settings
    https://ir.livongo.com/news-releases/news-release-details/li…
    Study conducted on 1,690 participants
  4. 2019/12/12: Livongo Earns Preferred Status on New Express Scripts Digital Health Formulary
  5. 2020/06/18: Livongo Studies Leverage Proprietary Data and Remote Monitoring to Reveal Unique Diabetes Management Insights
    a. Predictors of Emergency Department and Inpatient Admissions after Hypo- and Hyperglycemic Events: Leveraging Remote Monitoring Data of People with Diabetes, included 7,633 study participants
    b. Is Activation, Behaviors, and Attitudes to Managing Care Associated with Utilization of a Remote Diabetes Monitoring Platform (RDMP) and Improvement of A1c, was conducted in collaboration with Eli Lilly & Company and included 1,089 participants.
    https://ir.livongo.com/news-releases/news-release-details/li…

Your opinion: (I believe based on TDOC’s mission statement and an article about one of Livongo’s research studies that was NOT peer reviewed)
“In fact, I predict investors in TDOC will experience the full spectrum of negative emotions - guilt, shame, pain, regret - as they calculate the losses incurred during this stage of their wealth journey.”

Your opinion: [Post# 69415 on July 12th 2020 (Calling Shenanigans on Livongo)]
“Not sure when, but I think Livongo is going to get shellacked. My guess is they continue selling the service and leaders will crow about the unlimited growth to come. But eventually word will come out that there’s no major benefit from using their service. And on a future ER call they’ll miss earnings, talk about losing some big customers and the bottom will absolutely drop out”.

My opinion:

  1. Poorly written mission statements are not indicators of fraud.
  2. Livongo is a technology company with its “product” being AI generated nudges. It would be unusual for them to publish articles in healthcare journals requiring peer review. Their outcomes are based on simple fact that their nudges IMPROVE COMPLIANCE. Non-compliance is the biggest reasons for poor outcomes (at least in United States).
  3. Making confident statements about fraud/poor future returns based on your opinion (not facts) in a forum where many investors are new and emerging is irresponsible.
  4. TDOC has a decent probability to deliver extreme returns over the next 5-10 years.
    Disclosure: I have spent over 20 years in healthcare, many years dealing with providers, payers and PBMs. TDOC is my largest holding.
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