I have noticed that in recent years, year end frequently coincides with a huge change in the
relative performance of Berkshire Hathaway stock price versus the broad US market.
For example, strong outperformance in late 2018, turning on a dime at new year’s, and strong underperformance in the first half of 2019.
Also very pronounced end 2013, end 2014, end 2015. Not as clear-cut but still present end-2016 and end 2017.
End 2019 was a lesser transition from tracking to underperformance.
End 2020 was a comparable transition from tracking to outperformance.
There are actually some reasons for this sort of effect, mainly to do with the way portfolio managers are incentivised.
Berkshire’s price did very nicely in 2021, but has been underperforming (with squiggles) since May.
It has falling behind by about 0.8%/month for about 8 months.
So, a stretch of outperformance in the new year is possible starting in January. Perhaps a bit more possible than random chance would suggest.
Of course that’s not much comfort if the broad market is dropping, but hey, it’d end the current Rodney Dangerfield stretch.