YTD BRK vs. Others

Saw this YTD 2022 data from a Tweet from Dr. David Kass💪:

Berkshire (+6.2%)
DJIA (-8.6%)
S&P 500 (-12.8%)
Nasdaq (-22.5%)
Bitcoin (-38.0%)
ARKK (-52.0%)

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Thanks!

P.S.: I am wondering why Divi isn’t posting his “BRK vs.S&P” anymore.

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He does like to keep track of things.
But if he goes silent we can help out.

We did tempt him into a comment about the future rather than the past, once.
https://discussion.fool.com/so-what39s-your-conclusion-from-thos…

Divi:

 *S&P      BRK*
*-----------------------*
*YTD     13.6%     3.4%*
*1YR     18%       6.6%*
*3YR     48%      28%*
*5YR     94%      76%*
*10YR   276%     192%*
*15YR   301%     294%*

Jim:
So, what’s your conclusion from those numbers you posted?
In short, are you extrapolating more price underperformance for Berkshire, or predicting a period of outperformance over the next several years?
Once a dog, always a dog?
Or buy low and sell high?

Divi:
If you start the clock at 01/01/2020 and end on 12/31/2030, S&P will have likely and comfortably outperformed BRK.

It should be noted that the prediction started on the Ladies’ Tee: the S&P had outperformed BRK by 10.7% between the start of the named period and the date of the post.

Even so, Berkshire since the start of 2020 is up 40.9% = 15.33%/yr annualized.
S&P total return up 33.6% = 12.8%/year annualized.
That’s 2.4 years, so only 24% of the ten year prediction period. Lots can happen yet.

If you take it just since the date of the post, S&P total return CAGR 11.2%, BRK CAGR 22.89%.

Jim

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“It should be noted that the prediction started on the Ladies’ Tee”

omg so funny :joy::joy::joy:

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“It should be noted that the prediction started on the Ladies’ Tee”

omg so funny :joy::joy::joy:

Yes, maybe Jim’s best ever quip? I’m definitely stealing that one.

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Divi:
If you start the clock at 01/01/2020 and end on 12/31/2030, S&P will have likely and comfortably outperformed BRK.

Jim:
It should be noted that the prediction started on the Ladies’ Tee: the S&P had outperformed BRK by 10.7% between the start of the named period and the date of the post.

Even so, Berkshire since the start of 2020 is up 40.9% = 15.33%/yr annualized.
S&P total return up 33.6% = 12.8%/year annualized.
That’s 2.4 years, so only 24% of the ten year prediction period.

Me:
It should also be noted that Divi, perhaps unintentionally, designed the course with an unseen hazard on this hole: it’s an 11-year prediction period.

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designed the course with an unseen hazard on this hole: it’s an 11-year prediction period.

Good point. But at least it’s specific and testable.

As with all such fixed period predictions, it does rely on the luck of the draw on the end date.
One or the other of the assets might be oddly cheap or oddly expensive on the anniversary date.
A better test would be taking the average rate of return 9-11 years later for each asset.

My own prediction 11 months ago takes the opposing viewpoint, and adds the smoothing of the endpoint.
https://discussion.fool.com/7-year-prediction-34863782.aspx
"For purchase now, and sale on an average date 4-10 years from now.
The prediction: Compound annual real total return for Berkshire class B stock will beat the S&P 500 by 4%/year.
That’s starting with BRK/B at $276.24, SPY at $427.89, CPI at 269.2."
So far the score is BRK return +14.7%, SPY total return -2.7%, not annualized.

Jim

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