Tender Ego

Well I was finally banned from the Saul board. Here was the offending post in response to a question of where the OP might find alternative perspectives:

Go to pretty much any of the other boards with significant daily postings, search “Saul”, and you will find some potentially insightful criticisms. I would suggest starting with the Berkshire board. The Mechanical investing board has some interesting knowledge to share, as does the Macroeconomic Trends board.

PP

For this offensive post I receive the following:

Hi there PhoolishPhilip,

Please note that we have repeatedly had to delete your posts on Saul’s Investing Discussions board for violating the rules of that board. If you post there again, your posting privileges will be suspended.

Jennifer Roberts
Board Manager

I was asked by another poster how I would value SNOW and what I would consider a reasonable alternative. I posted a long response looking at the assumed growth rates and future net profit rates required to justify the current market cap. SNOW would need to grow sales at 30% per year for a decade, and achieve net margins of 35% with a PE multiple of 25, to produce an annual return of ~10-12%. I discussed in detail Google as an alternative choice likely to return the same, or better, with much lower risk of loss of capital. It was immediately pulled as OT and offensive.

16 Likes

I was asked by another poster how I would value SNOW and what I would consider a reasonable
alternative. I posted a long response looking at the assumed growth rates and future net profit rates
required to justify the current market cap. SNOW would need to grow sales at 30% per year for a
decade, and achieve net margins of 35% with a PE multiple of 25, to produce an annual return of
~10-12%. I discussed in detail Google as an alternative choice likely to return the same, or better,
with much lower risk of loss of capital. It was immediately pulled as OT and offensive.

Though I tend to agree that it seems like a pretty reasonable thing to mention in the context of that discussion,
it’s amusing to note that Berkshire owns Snowflake but not, as far as I know, Alphabet.

Though I can’t comment on your specific figures, your reasoning seems pretty sound.
There are those that believe all stocks eventually trade at a multiple not higher than the teens on current earnings, and those that believe trees and valuations grow to the sky.
Spot check on a former darling: Since early 2014, Facebook’s P/E has fallen from 140 to (wait for it) 15.
Not that it was a bad pick, as returns have still been 15%/yr.
Earnings will do what they do, but the multiples always come down to earth after a while.
So it’s best to assume that when planning returns.

Jim

16 Likes

It seems there is a need for many to adhere to a stongman type environment and the Saul’s SAAS board is that. As I have written there Saul himself repeatedly breaks his board rules. My view is summed up as simply that Saul needs a huge amount of others fawning over him and he censors the board accordingly.

7 Likes

“I was asked by another poster how I would value SNOW and what I would consider a reasonable alternative. I posted a long response looking at the assumed growth rates and future net profit rates required to justify the current market cap. SNOW would need to grow sales at 30% per year for a decade, and achieve net margins of 35% with a PE multiple of 25, to produce an annual return of ~10-12%. I discussed in detail Google as an alternative choice likely to return the same, or better, with much lower risk of loss of capital. It was immediately pulled as OT and offensive.”

What do you think of FDS? FDS is a supplier of data to SNOW for resale. FDS is only 14B mktcap, which is surprising to me (I thought it’s a much bigger company). SNOW, on the other hand, is 45B.

As I have written there Saul himself repeatedly breaks his board rules.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HiHN3IJ_j8A

Rob

1 Like

curious as to why people here care about Saul?

34 Likes

curious as to why people here care about Saul?

Possibly because the “this is the only way to think” and authoritarian deletion of any contrary thoughts is leading some people to financial ruin?

Of course there is always that risk, the Foolish Four, the RuleBreakers, the BMW Method, Mechanical Backtest systems and others I have long forgotten about hold that risk as well. The difference is that only on that board are contrary opinions not only not invited but actively censored and deleted.

This is not healthy for any but the most sophisticated investor, and I would say there are a significant number of people reading there - and not elsewhere - who fit that description, and who are finding out the hard way that a more rounded approach also has value.

Heck, we’ve seen a thousand “Why doesn’t Warren buy tech?” Or “This is just a mutual fund” post here, but I don’t think anyone has gone about systematically deleting them, have they?

14 Likes

Heck, we’ve seen a thousand “Why doesn’t Warren buy tech?” Or “This is just a mutual fund” post here, but I don’t think anyone has gone about systematically deleting them, have they?

Just the sting of zero recs!

4 Likes

Having two spare minutes I thought I would look at how many posts are being deleted on Saul’s board. From Post 84559 to 84658 (the most recent 100), 13 posts are missing from the list.

Craig

4 Likes

deleting them, have they?

Absolutely. If you think Saul has monopoly on intolerance, you may want to rethink. Classic example, Someone starts a thread attacking AMZN, and you post a simple fact, why the central part of their argument is flawed, no personal attack, nothing unprofessional, they flag your post, they attack you mercilessly, they even attack your family.

It is like Democrats thinking only Republicans are bad and vice versa. The only difference is, that is Saul’s board and he has the permission from TMF to do what he likes and gentle patrons here don’t have the same privilege. But what they lack in privilege they compensate it on viciousness.

2 Likes

viciousness… they even attack your family.
This from the nice guy who called Munger an “Idiot”?

I remember you complaining “someone reported my post … TMF pulled it”. Maybe there were reasons? Not even your personal “Idiot” insult was deleted.

Tender ego, indeed.

3 Likes

Well I was finally banned from the Saul board.

Well, that’s a relief. Your utter inability to follow the posted rules should have led to your being banned much sooner. The forbearance and politeness of the moderators was way overdone in your case.

I don’t know what it is you enjoy so much about fouling others’ nests, but it’s really not healthy. A little introspection on your part would be in order.

-IGU-

24 Likes

viciousness… they even attack your family.
This from the nice guy who called Munger an “Idiot”?

I called munger an idiot not you. Right, but that idiot’s fanboys attacked me. I clearly said why I call him an idiot. I can overlook his abrasiveness, rudeness, bluntness, me being myself I cannot hold that against anyone, but I disagree with his china stand, and it is for his comments on China I called him Idiot. No need for anyone to feel individually attacked and attack me.

Remember, Munger doesn’t know who you are and most likely he is more aligned with me than you.

1 Like

It doesn’t require deep introspection to sort out right from wrong here. When well intentioned advice supported by facts and logic is removed and termed “fouling the nest”, it might be time to flee the nest.

7 Likes

Having two spare minutes I thought I would look at how many posts are being deleted on Saul’s board. From Post 84559 to 84658 (the most recent 100), 13 posts are missing from the list.

My ignore filters take out about 20% of the total posts here, although that’s not about vanity so much as avoiding wasted time.

5 Likes

“Possibly because the “this is the only way to think” and authoritarian deletion of any contrary thoughts is leading some people to financial ruin?”

Some of the investors on that board may well make a killing on their story stocks and get out without losing it. Others, especially latecomers and copycats, may lose their money and have to pick up the pieces after learning their lesson the hard way.

In either case, they don’t care what we think.

I don’t talk to them or about them because it is a waste of their time and mine.

13 Likes

PP

can you post that valuation of SNOW here? I was the person who asked for the analysis. Obviously relevant given SNOW is a BRK holding.

Thank in advance.

RW

1 Like

I posted it here:

https://discussion.fool.com/hi-tk-i39m-glad-you-came-here-to-ask…

1 Like

If I am going to buy SNOW, I can see why the other side what to sell — mktcap is 30x sales etc…

But I don’t understand why Todd/Ted buying it. They also bought RH (Ted said in the recent interview he followed the furniture market for decades).

Speaking of RH, my wife loves their furniture. Once you go to their show room, it’s hard not to buy something. And returns/exchange is so easy, never any questions asked. But all their designs are heavily copied by others within 6-12 months, and then available for half of the price.

But I don’t understand why Todd/Ted buying it.

Does it really matters to you? They are not going to share their investment thesis with you, secondly, they can easily write off and walk away, they have billions of profits elsewhere.

Individual investors have nothing in common with Billionaire investors.

1 Like