Tesla switching to own autopilot hardware

Tesla is expected to soon introduce its new Autopilot Hardware 3, which consists of a new neural net computer that they claimed will be the ‘world’s most advanced computer for autonomous driving’. It will become standard on all its vehicles and be offered as a retrofit.

Code that leaked earlier this month showed that the Autopilot hardware 3.0 computer is equipped with a Tesla PCI-Ex device named “TRIP”, which appears to work as a neural net accelerator.

The computer in the Autopilot 2.0 hardware suite is powered by Nvidia GPUs. Musk says that it is capable of processing 200 frames per second and Tesla’s hardware 3 should be able to handle 2,000 frames per second with redundancy.

https://electrek.co/2019/01/23/tesla-self-driving-autopilot-…

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Following advancements in autopilot is certainly an interesting topic, and it could end up applying very directly to a stock that many here on the board have been paying close attention to in NVidia.

I will be interested to see whether Tesla says anything next Wednesday evening (1/30/2019) about any plans to try to license this alleged improved hardware to any other manufacturers.

For much of Tesla’s history, people have touted that “Tesla isn’t just a car company”. With the tax credit having halved as of January 1st for buyers of Tesla vehicles (S, X, and 3) from $7,500 to $3,750 and with a further halving to $1,875 on deck for July 1st, the demand for Tesla vehicles in the U.S. seems to be a key metric. I have seen reports that approximately 15,000 to 16,000 orders have been placed in Europe so far for Model 3’s. That represents less than 4 months of Fremont’s production capability.

Will Tesla have sufficient internally generated cash flows to fund the Model Y, Roadster, and Semi development without getting a fresh infusion of new outside capital? That seems to me to be the key question in regards to Tesla as an investment. The year-over-year revenue gain from Q3 2017 to Q3 2018 was an outstanding number, but what will drive further revenue growth?

-TSLAQPodcast
Disclosure: short TSLA

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That represents less than 4 months of Fremont’s production capability.

  • That was supposed to be 4 weeks rather than months. That’s what I get for trying to type too fast.

The Fremont factory is well-known for the end of June 2018 ramp to 5,000 per week, and Tesla’s reported Model 3 production levels averaged out for Q3 2018 and Q4 2018 came out to less than 5,000 per week for both quarters.

Tesla switching to own autopilot hardware

That news is about 6 months old so a little stale for this market.

Overlooked in all the hoopla last week around Elon Musk’s apology, astronaut flights announced for his SpaceX business, and Tesla’s improving rates of production was a little news about silicon. Tesla has been relying on chips from Nvidia to power its autopilot and self-driving car features, specifically Nvidia’s PX2 platform. But last week, Musk “let the cat out of the bag” about the carmaker’s own chip efforts. Nvidia is out, to be replaced in all Teslas with a chip developed internally. “I’m a big fan of Nvidia, they do great stuff,” Musk noted before giving them the axe

http://fortune.com/2018/08/06/data-sheet-tesla-dumps-nvidia-…

Andy

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TeslaQ, this feels like more of an advertisement for your short position in Tesla and your TeslaQ Podcast. That is NOT what this board is for. We are here to discuss finding and investing in high-growth companies.

I’m reporting this post and requesting it be deleted. Please do the same. If you’d like to add to our discussion on finding great growth stocks, please do so, but we won’t let this become a place for discussions on shorting and/or advertising.

Thanks.

Austin

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Austin,

While I cannot speak for the “feel” of the posting, my intent in the post was to include some discussion of factors relating to Tesla’s revenue growth in the recent past (certainly looks like high-growth from that angle) and looking forward to the near future (I will let the reader make their own projections there).

For a few quick revenue numbers for the past few quarter:


2017
Q1       Q2        Q3      Q4
       $2.7B     $2.8B   $3.3B

2018
 Q1      Q2      Q3     Q4
$3.4B  $4.0B   $6.8B  
      up ~50%  up >100%

-TSLAQPodcast

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Austin, I don’t think I agree with your position on TSLAQ’s post. Aside from the username, where is the podcast advertisement? It is not mentioned. Aside from the disclosure statement, would you have known this post came from somebody with a short position?

Focusing on the content of the post, I see facts being presented and legitimate questions and concerns being raised. Nothing out of the ordinary there. On second thought, the post does not directly address the topic (autopilot hardware) so maybe I’m just being naive. Feels a little too ambitious to shut a contributor out due to their username and bearish opinion on TSLA. Just my two cents.

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Slo,

I realize my post came off as harsh, but a few things triggered my response.

  1. Post does not address topic at hand (felt like opportunity to jump on any existing TSLA post/get podcast name out there)

  2. Has never posted on this board before

  3. Has never posted on any TMF board about any stock other than TSLA

  4. New member, named TSLAQPodcast

Those can’t all be coincidences.

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I respect that you are a moderator here, Austin, and that Saul is the ultimate arbiter of his board.
I will endeavor to limit my posting here only to discussion of high growth companies.
In the case of Tesla, I see many potential investing case studies to be written in the future.
Perhaps one of the most important is in regards to the level of emotion that discussion of Tesla seems to engender.
The magnitude seems to be equivalent to politics and religion, or maybe even the distillation of a multiple of politics x religion.
For that reason, I will try to eliminate any emotion from any post I make about Tesla.

To your points:
1. Post does not address topic at hand (felt like opportunity to jump on any existing TSLA post/get podcast name out there)
I plead half guilty to this charge, as I did mention NVidia in the reply. Additionally, I attempted to steer the discussion towards Tesla revenue growth, as revenue growth could be said to be the #1 metric followed on this board.

2. Has never posted on this board before
100% guilty as charged here

3. Has never posted on any TMF board about any stock other than TSLA
100% guilty as charged here
Tesla is the most likely stock to be talked about, though may go to a Ford or BMW or Toyota or GM board at some point if there is something of interest.

4. New member, named TSLAQPodcast
100% guilty as charged here
No levitating Roadster to act as a time machine here to register any earlier.

Those can’t all be coincidences.
Indeed, they are not.

Back to future revenue projections to steer the thread back to the topic at hand, I see that this CNN page has a 2019 analyst range of $22.9B to $34.5B and a “consensus” of $29.1B.
It lists a revenue growth rate of 77.26% for Tesla. That is a really incredible revenue growth rate.
https://money.cnn.com/quote/forecast/forecast.html?symb=TSLA…

-TQP

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That sounds Fair TQP. Thanks for finding a middle ground. We certainly welcome all well-intended growth stock discussion.

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the level of emotion that discussion of Tesla seems to engender. The magnitude seems to be equivalent to politics and religion.

TQP, I agree with that completely.

I see that this CNN page has a 2019 analyst range of $22.9B to $34.5B and a “consensus” of $29.1B. It lists a revenue growth rate of 77.26% for Tesla. That is a really incredible revenue growth rate.

If that’s the way you see it, it puzzles me that you would take a short position on a company that you think might be growing revenue by 77%. I have no interest in a long position in Tesla, but I would never dare to short it (or any other potentially hyper-growth company).

Saul

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Just my 2 cents here, but TSLAQPodcast isn’t being honest when he/she says they are bringing it up here because it has high revenue growth.

Q, as in TSLAQ, is meant to indicate a stock in bankruptcy and/or on the pink sheets - i.e. that it has dropped to <$1. It is a common hashtag used on Twitter by Tesla uber-bears who rant and rave about Elon being a fraud or huckster and look forward to the day they foresee when TSLA stock tanks.

Full disclosure - I am a former TSLA shareholder who made a decent amount of money on the stock but sold when Elon went off the rails with the “funding secured” tweets, etc. Too irrational for me. But I do have a Model S and it is easily the best car I’ve ever owned.

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If that’s the way you see it, it puzzles me that you would take a short position on a company that you think might be growing revenue by 77%. I have no interest in a long position in Tesla, but I would never dare to short it (or any other potentially hyper-growth company).

Saul,

The data came from CNN. My experience is that data from a random number generstor is about as reliable.

http://www.randomnumbergenerator.com/

Cheers
Qazulight

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If that’s the way you see it, it puzzles me that you would take a short position on a company that you think might be growing revenue by 77%. I have no interest in a long position in Tesla, but I would never dare to short it (or any other potentially hyper-growth company).

I had my reason for saying that the way I did. 77% certainly is a remarkable revenue growth rate. If any esteemed reader of the board here would disagree with that statement as a standalone statement exclusive of any further context, I would be quite surprised. My point was that in considering that 100+% or 77% revenue growth rate, it is important to consider the full picture of whether they’ve saturated their easily-addressable markets at their present price points and whether they can add a new Model Y, Truck, Semi, and/or Roadster with their current financial situation balance sheet-wise and cash flow generation-wise.

Q, as in TSLAQ, is meant to indicate a stock in bankruptcy and/or on the pink sheets. It is a common hashtag used on Twitter by Tesla uber-bears who rant and rave about Elon being a fraud or huckster and look forward to the day they foresee when TSLA stock tanks.

Indeed, that is the reference for my name. The Podcast is serving as a separate medium from Twitter to document part of the story of $TSLAQ Twitter. I try to be reasonable and avoid any ranting and raving on the Podcast, but I will stop talking about that now and avoid cluttering up the board.

-TQP

One last thing about the use of CNN data - I simply grabbed that as it was near the front of the Google results that popped up. Companies’ investor relations pages are usually the best sources for info.
Here part of Tesla’s: http://ir.tesla.com/sec-filings Almost oddly, this Tesla page of SEC filings is still missing (as of this evening of 1/24/2019) the Form 4 for a director’s 10b5-1 sale from last Wednesday and Thursday (1/16 and 1/17) which was filed on 1/18 and has been available on the EDGAR site since last weekend.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000149515819…

After Musk’s latest antics (laying off 7% of Tesla’s employees and warning of a very tough road ahead); I sold my position with a 4% loss. After Q3’s operating results, I was under the impression that Tesla had finally found its way but Musk’s letter didn’t go down well with me - so I bailed.

In my view, Tesla hasn’t saturated its market - far from it and as Saul said, why short a stock with such torrid revenue growth?

For me, given all the production and operational challenges, Tesla stock is now in the ‘Too Tough’ pile - I don’t want to own it but wouldn’t short it either.

Too many other hyper-growth companies out there with a tenth of the drama attached to the story.

Best,

GM

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Alright everyone. Please stop discussing shorting Tesla in this thread.

That’s not the point of this board.

Please, no more replies to this thread. It’s back to feeling like an advertisement for a podcast.

After Musk’s latest antics

Adding 30% and then getting rid of a small percentage is an historical pattern at Tesla. Staff up to support a push, get the new thing sorted, get rid of the least desirable.

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