Tesla - Invest When Others Are Fearful...?

Investment Analysis Clubs Saul’s Investing Discussions
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Folks,

I wanted to cross post two very important pieces of content regarding Tesla that I came across on the premium Tesla board today. This goes against public and media sentiment, which is negatively biased in a major way given the influence of incumbent auto, oil and energy.

This following interview https://discussion.fool.com/watch-this-interview-34196171.aspx was indeed edited off the CNBC platform yesterday. I looked everywhere and watched all of their interview content with Chamath Palihapitiya and the Tesla part that is within this link
https://streamable.com/goa06 was indeed cut and nowhere to be found! But we Fools have located it for our intelligent consideration.

What a joke, and what clear deception and bias the media has against Tesla.

Chamath Palihapitiya is a logical, intelligent stud with an impeccable performance record. So now we have Cathie Wood, Ron Baron and Chamath Palihapitiya, all with top investing performance track records, and all yelling from the mountain tops what a great long-term investing opportunity Tesla is.

Watching this video with Chamath Palihapitiya is well worth your time.

In addition, please read this intelligent and thorough article about the same. Another intelligent summary with conviction, and very much worth your time.

I am so excited about Tesla’s future that I just bought more shares for my kids accounts this morning. (I already have an 8% position that will likely grow far more in the future…:))

Rock on and Fool on.

-Rockleppard

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Rock, this post is OT. Please no replies on this board.

If this was about the merits of Tesla as a growth stock based off of numbers that would be okay.

But that’s not what this post is and Tesla can be a very polarizing discussion which is better to be had privately or on that Tesla board.

Thank you.

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In addition, please read this intelligent and thorough article about the same. Another intelligent summary with conviction, and very much worth your time.

Sorry, here is the additional article I referenced in my earlier email.
http://www.hamidshojaee.com/post/184522555004/teslas-autonom…

-Rockleppard

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Rock, this post is OT. Please no replies on this board.

If this was about the merits of Tesla as a growth stock based off of numbers that would be okay.

But that’s not what this post is and Tesla can be a very polarizing discussion which is better to be had privately or on that Tesla board.

CMFALieberman -

I completely disagree, and I think you jumped the gun. This post is absolutely ALL about Tesla’s growth prospects and investment merit. I posted this content because I believe it is unique, investment oriented content that could help our readers consider or reconsider Tesla as an investment. I believe such investment could lead to EXPONENTIAL returns for investors willing to have the courage and intelligence to consider the viewpoints of these three VERY prominent investment manager.

So respectfully and as a very long-term Fool and devoted/appreciative reader and participant of this most valued board, I do not feel discussing Tesla as a growth stock is “OT”, and feel we should let folks engage in an intelligent discussion about the growth investment potential of Tesla.

Sincerely,
-Rockleppard

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Rock

Just tell them you meant to post it on the NPI board and it will all be ok.

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Hi Rockleppard,

My take on the article, FWIW, is the author makes a few key mistakes that undermine most of the investing thesis.

Mistake #1 is starting out with describing TSLA as one of two possible stories - either it goes bankrupt or goes on to become an incredible success story. Those are outlier scenarios, the ends of a bell curve of possibilities. The more probable outcomes are somewhere in between, especially when viewed in totality. IMO, the most likely scenario is that TSLA eventually overcomes the erratic behavior of its CEO and succeeds, somewhat in spite of itself, but not to the degree that would make it an incredible investment opportunity from current prices. I suspect it might keep up with the index… “might” being the operative word.

Mistake #2 is to assume that AAPL and GOOG have huge expenses that TSLA does not have if they hope to compete. Look at what AAPL did with its CarPlay tech - it partnered with various OEMs to get the technology in existing auto manufacturers’ vehicles. I would expect AAPL and possibly GOOG to take the same approach with their self-driving tech. I expect at some point there will be an “Apple CarDrive” product which will be licensed to automakers. The cost of this package might be a $5,000 high-end option on a new car, with most of the profit on that add-on going to AAPL. This may prove to be the most profitable way to play the self-driving space - which wouldn’t be a surprise, given Apple’s track record as a company. Note that self-driving tech need not depend on the powerplant itself… Apple’s market for its self-driving tech isn’t just electric cars, it’s every car.

I sort of lost interest in reading halfway through the article. The author seems to view the world as a set of binary choices and isn’t acknowledging the more likely outcomes that matter to investors. So there may be other mistakes I didn’t touch on. I’m reminded of this blog post I read the other day (summary for those who don’t have time to chase the link: if there are glaring errors that you can see, you have to wonder about the ones you don’t see.)
https://ofdollarsanddata.com/the-errors-that-i-dont-see/

That said, I did skim to the end and noticed this postscript: “P.S. I’m not affiliated with Tesla in any way. I’m just a tech investor (been doing it for 25 years) who has never seen a more crystal clear opportunity with a public company.”

In my experience, the phrase “never seen a more crystal clear opportunity,” especially when coupled with a humblebrag of one’s investing credentials (“been doing it 25 years”) is code for “I’m about to lose a lot of money - would you like to join me?”

Who knows if that will play out here, but, I’d be careful.

Rob

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Just tell them you meant to post it on the NPI board and it will all be ok.

He did post it there as well.

And, as Austin said, this Tesla-discussion seems pretty OT on this board, so why not discuss it on the NPI-board instead?

No more posts on this thread. Thanks for your co-operation.

Benjamin
(Assistant Board Manager)

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And, as Austin said, this Tesla-discussion seems pretty OT on this board, so why not discuss it on the NPI-board instead? No more posts on this thread. Thanks for your co-operation.

I agree with Benjamin and Austin. Tesla just generates very emotional arguments which go on and on, and it’s hard to see how it’s a growth company at present when half the time it seems to be fighting just to survive. Let’s end this thread here.
Thanks for your cooperation,

Saul

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“I’m about to lose a lot of money - would you like to join me?”

That is pretty much in the back of my mind on every post I write. :slight_smile:

I have started thinking of TSLA as a bounceback candidate, but I would want to see it go lower first. Elon is a bit crazy, but he isn’t wrong in seeing an autonomous fleet via a ride-sharing model being the future. I am one of those efficiency nuts, who sees our cars just sitting in the driveway or work parking lot 90% of the time and think there needs to be a better way. That fundamentally changes car sales and car ownership. Problem is, I don’t see that coming in 12 months like he claimed, which seems nuts.

The TSLA sales are also equal to many of our high-growth companies, although it remains to be seen how much growth will plummet from 2018 to 2019 and then the following year…Elon hopes the new models (Y, Truck), and lure of owning your own robo taxi will provide another leg of growth. Problem is, again, reality always seems to move slower than Elon predicts.

I also remember Solar City and the powerpacks and that all sort of faded into the background and Tesla became a car company again. My real hope had been that Tesla merged with SpaceX, but that seems less likely by the year.

You could have bought TSLA stock for about same amount as today back in 2014. As effective as keeping cash under your mattress. But the volatility is undeniable, and the rabid fanbase is undeniable, but I see TSLA stock as more of a trading opportunity than anything I am buying and holding for a year or more.

Dreamer

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I am so excited about Tesla’s future
me too but with some big caveats

  1. Will it survive the next recession? The car business is a poor business, even established companies can fail then, and somehow I don’t think Tesla will be bailed out- no union push., and oil , car dealers and established car companies will lobby against them.

Just look at the insane $7500 tax credit now benefiting only buyers of cars made outside the US While the US labor force is discriminated against by their own government.

I can buy companies who are making their great future right now, why wait for the indefinite future?

  1. How do I value a company which in a way is a conglomerate because of the solar roofing part,apparently not doing well now

  2. Tesla is stuck with GF2, they have to keep it open and hire people to fulfill their part of the bargain made with NY for tax benefits. They function mostly in 2 states known for high taxes and anti business regulations.

  3. Musk is a wild card, clearly a genius, except for him I don’t think there would be any BEV on the road in the US. He will go down in history. OTOH he is very erratic , possibly (I am not his shrink) a partially controlled bi polar type.
    He is great at ideas, he probably gets more original thoughts in a day than most of us do in a lifetime, but seems to be over worked and over stressed. How many disparate companies can one guy run at a time? He needs more help than apparently he is willing to tolerate.

I love my model S, Tesla makes vehicles that make ICE feel almost antediluvian. Don’t disagree with me until you have actually driven one , not for 5 minutes ,but for a day or more.

My solution- I sold my TSLA and used the proceeds to buy stocks that were going up ,not going down. But I would love the chance to get back in TSLA at the right price . I think that will have to be some sort of FUD event that you can prove is wrong (like the Tesla fires).
Profits aside ,it’s fun to be part of something that is changing the world. So that might justify a holding but not a big one.

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Halo Fellow Fools,

I am new to TMFUSA (just joined a few weeks ago). Through https://discussion.fool.com/1069/hi-gf-as-fuskie-said-welcome-to… was how I came to this Saul’s Investing Discussions board.

Appreciate if more experienced Fools can explain to me the difference between NPI & this current board.

Thank you

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Hello Ivan,

Welcome to the board! Please familiarize yourself with everything below (take your time and read and reread as often as you need)

Our board has the singular focus of analyzing and discussing individual, rapidly growing, disruptive companies. That means that certain topics and basic questions that are acceptable on other boards are not appropriate here. Our board has grown tremendously in recent years, and Saul has had to establish rules, published every Monday morning, to keep off-topic and non-contributing posts to a minimum. He has also engaged several assistant board managers, who will remind posters when they veer off topic, and stop off-topic threads from continuing. The names of the Assistant Board Managers, and the DO’S and DONT’S for this board are found here:

Monday Morning Rules of the Board:
Short version: https://discussion.fool.com/monday-morning-rules-of-the-board-34……
Long version: https://discussion.fool.com/monday-morning-rules-of-the-board-34……

Please remember that these ARE the rules of the board. If you are unhappy with them, or feel that they are too restrictive for you, no one is keeping you on the board. You can leave whenever you want. You should know though that this board has been very successful, and is a real treasure, for a great number of people.

To profit most from this highly focused board, we suggest reviewing the links below to Saul’s investing approach and philosophy, especially the KnowledgeBase many of us have read and reread several times. The knowledge contained therein is priceless, and for many of us here, it has been literally life-changing. Since this board has attracted many well-informed, analytical minds, including industry insiders, we also found a review of several months worth of prior posts extremely helpful. All of this valuable information is given generously and freely to help us be better investors.

An Introduction to Saul’s Investing Philosophy

A superb introduction to Saul’s development as an investor is his letter to his daughter, followed by the first five references, posted on the right panel on any post on this board, under “Announcements.” In addition, Saul’s End of Month Summaries provide insight into each of his investing decisions. Several other investors provide extremely useful end of month summaries as well.

  1. An investing primer for my daughter, https://discussion.fool.com/an-investing-primer-for-my-daughter-……

  2. KnowledgeBase in three parts, is Saul’s compilation of his basic investing philosophy:
    https://discussion.fool.com/knowledgebase-newly-revised-part-1-3……
    https://discussion.fool.com/knowledgebase-newly-revised-part-2-3……
    https://discussion.fool.com/knowledgebase-newly-revised-part-3-3……

Saul has picked several of his classic posts to aid you. Here they are below:

  1. How I pick a company to invest in.
    https://discussion.fool.com/how-i-pick-a-company-to-invest-in-33……

  2. Why my investing criteria have changed.
    https://discussion.fool.com/why-my-investing-criteria-have-chang……

  3. Why it Really is Different – (SaaS companies and subscription software).
    https://discussion.fool.com/oh-this-time-it8217s-different-33123……

  4. Category Crushers, https://discussion.fool.com/category-crushers-and-my-portfolio-3……

  5. Here is a recent example of how Saul evaluates and follows a stock:
    part 1, https://discussion.fool.com/zscaler-a-deep-dive-into-my-notes-pa……
    part 2, https://discussion.fool.com/zscaler-a-deep-dive-into-my-notes-pa……

You will also find many, many excellent deep dives by other investors on the board.

  1. Saul’s End of Month Portfolio Summaries, https://docs.google.com/document/d/1yF_lLGs3pI4SPcYOfIvpO5FY……

We are trying to keep our discussions of rapidly growing, disruptive companies as advanced and detailed as possible. We encourage you to chime in, provided your comments are on-topic and within the guidelines outlined in the Rules of the Board. In addition to reading all of the above links, the following tips may be helpful in finding your way around this board:

  1. On how to present a new growth stock in a format that will generate lots of engagement. Tossing out a simple “What do you think about XYZ” onto this board won’t cut it. You have to tell us about the company, what it does, and why you like it. Here are a few examples:
    • https://discussion.fool.com/i-present-twou-for-your-evaluation-3……
    • https://discussion.fool.com/zuora-a-review-and-analysis-33099873……

  2. To find out if a stock has already been discussed here, for example TTD, just pull up DuckDuckGo or Google search, enter TTD Saul’s site:fool.com or TTD. “Saul’s Investing Discussions” site:fool.com

If you are an investing novice and you are looking for basic information, we have prepared a list of good references for you. It is posted on another board so as to not clutter up this board. I have linked to it here:

https://discussion.fool.com/for-investing-novices-34193680.aspx

(Courtesy of IMYoung)

Best,
Matt

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Thanks for providing links to the Knowledge base. The links have expired. I’ve never been able to find the Knowlegde Base and Saul always refers to them. Taking advantage of your post with expired links – Can someone tell where to find this info.

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They’re under the Announcements to the right.
https://discussion.fool.com/knowledgebase-newly-revised-part-1-3…
https://discussion.fool.com/knowledgebase-newly-revised-part-2-3…
https://discussion.fool.com/knowledgebase-newly-revised-part-3-3…

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Monday Morning Rules of the Board:
Short version: …/monday-morning-rules-of-the-board-34…
Long version: …/monday-morning-rules-of-the-board-34…

When you see 6 dots at the end of a link it means they were copied badly. To copy a link properly from a Fool post you have to use (Mac) Control-Click → Copy Link.

Denny Schlesinger

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And remember the links don’t show on the right if you’re viewing with Whole Thread selected, but only when looking at individual posts.

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This additional info document has a ton of good links included.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1yF_lLGs3pI4SPcYOfIvpO5FY…

-TQP

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@cegranquist. Thanks.