Tesla Valuation

SeekingAlpha is full of bearish or ‘ant-Tesla’ articles. The latests one:

Tesla’s Valuation: A Derivative Of Improbable Expectations


My comment:

Another bear article dissociated from reality. I’m not going to address ‘Tesla is just a car company’ because that notion has been disabused many times already.

A minor point: “However, I am writing this article to address my concerns with Tesla and why I’m not optimistic that the company can’t hold up its massive valuation” is a double negative making a hash of the argument. The author might consider hiring a copy editor. :wink:

A less minor point: “Tesla has achieved lofty valuations purely derived from speculation and improbable expectations for the company.” Of course, delivering millions of cars had nothing to do with it. The author might consider fact checking. :wink:

I’m going to concentrate on just one topic, “Addressing misconceptions that associate Musk’s privately owned projects with Tesla stock.”

“The aforementioned companies are privately owned and operated by Elon Musk.” Correct!

“I hear again and again about the innovative technologies that Musk is associated with as justification for Tesla’s valuation. To clear any misconceptions, Musk’s private companies are not and will not yield equity for Tesla or its investors.”

The author, Dalton Hicks, clearly does not know how innovation happens. The saying ‘there is nothing new under the Sun’ is correct in the narrowest sense but history clearly show human progress. If there is nothing new, how does it happen? The other day I came across an article mentioning in how many ways a 52 card deck could be arranged, ‘in the range of 8x10^67.’ An 8 followed by 67 zeros. https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/did-you-know-infographics/…

Colonel John Boyd explained it his briefing ‘Analysis and Synthesis Loop’ https://www.breakingthewheel.com/destruction-creation-john-b…

How does this apply to the Musk companies? The multiple ideas of his companies are present in his mind and he is capable of doing the Analysis and Synthesis Loop. Just one simple example, the stainless steel used in xSpace rockets found its way into the CyberTruck. On a higher level, an ex-Tesla employee said that once you are certified for any one of the Musk companies you have access to all of them. This allows all these employees to also do the Analysis and Synthesis Loop. It’s for good reason that Sandy Munro is amazed by the engineering going into Tesla cars.

While equity might not flow between the Musk companies, innovation certainly does and it’s innovation that creates the high valuation and it keeps the pack of ICE incumbents and EV wannabes trying to catch up.

Denny Schlesinger


Sorry I can’t give more than one rec.



Denny Schlesinger

Of course, delivering millions of cars had nothing to do with it.

I’ll give you Tesla is not just a car company. In fact I’d say they are not QUITE YET a car company. Delivering cars? Yes. Spare parts, service? Nope. And that is my big gripe with buying a Tesla. I have zero confidence I could get it serviced if necessary in any reasonable period of time. This is what has me looking at Ford, VW, Volvo, Nissan, Mazda for an electric car, not Tesla.


My Toyota Corolla was pretty much service free. Check it out!

Denny Schlesinger

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My model 3 was service free for the three years I owned it. My model Y has not needed service in the one week since I took delivery :wink:


I have only heard that the service is great.

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Of the two Tesla Model Y I know about, both had service done in the first month. Scope of service was to fix rattles/noises and fit/finish issues. Vehicle turnaround within the day; sometimes technician came to vehicle. I think 3 visits/fixes per vehicle. Since the first month, now more than one year later, no need for service. So technology and drive of Tesla is great. Issue is fit and finish quality of the vehicle. Once you address initial fit and finish issues, vehicle is a winner.


In fact I’d say they are not QUITE YET a car company. Delivering cars? Yes. Spare parts, service? Nope.

My experience in 3.5 years:
They came to my house and replaced/upgraded the computer to the newer version, for free as was promised when I bought it.
They came to my home and replaced for free the automatic charge port door after it started acting odd after two years. It still worked manually. The tech told me the newer ones had an improved motor.
They came to my home and gave me a free loaner tire when I got a flat. I had to pay for a new tire a few days later that they came and installed.

All paper work done via email and all payments done via my card on file.
When I got the flat, I tapped on the phone app and they knew where the car was located and what tire I needed automatically. I just happened to be at home since I drove there when I heard the slow leak. Someone called me within ~2 minutes and apologized that it would be about a hour since it was after normal hours.



I have owned a Model S since 2014 and have had no problems with either parts or service. The car in general has held up well. Though not quite as well as my Toyota Corolla which is even older.

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