Not quite so dire. The top speed of the Texas HSR is projected to be 205 mph, and certainly an FSD system could exceed a third of that.
More important, though, is the overall trip length - since the Texas train will stop at least once, and perhaps have to slow at other points in the trip. The bullet train is expected to take about 1.5 hours to travel the 240 mile route. It takes about 3.5 hours to do the trip at current speed limits, but it’s not crazy to think that an autonomous car could drop that time to 2.5 hours (about 95 mph). The train will still be faster - but with autonomy both reducing the trip duration and allowing drivers to do something instead of driving and letting you have your own car at the destination, it can eat into their market.
CA HSR is different, because it’s a longer trip. There, the competitor will be air travel.
It is entirely possible that time can be saved (depending upon where one lives and the destination). For example, let’s say you live in Sierra Madre (in the foothills near Pasadena) and want to visit jaagu in Petaluma (north of San Francisco). To take the eventual-train you would have to call an Uber, wait for it to arrive and then take you down to a light rail line station (about six miles). Wait for the next train downtown. Go the the high-speed rail. Wait for the next train north. Make stops in Burbank, Palmdale, Bakersfield, Fresno and San Jose. At this time, the section through the urban area to San Francisco will not be high speed. Once you got to downtown SF you would have to rent a car or find an uber to take you to Petaluma.
On the other hand, if you owned or were renting a FSD car it would be in your driveway, would take you all the way to Petaluma with stops of your choice. You could eat wherever you wanted, could spend the trip reading or napping (as on the train). Departure times on either end would be of your choice. Side trips to wineries could easily be included.
There is still the ridership problem. The reason for the extra stops is to juice up ridership and make the train self-paying. Express trains don’t do that.
Sure they do. If all the trains go slow, some people won’t ride them because there are faster, easier alternatives. If all the trains are express, some people along the route won’t ride because they can’t get aboard. There’s room for both.
Thie airline industry is instructive. Many carriers have made a business of “express” from city to city, while the big 3 want you to travel through one of their hubs. That turns a short trip into an all day slog, but if you take Allegiant, Spirit, SouthWest, you go “express” to your destination. That’s how some of them have built a compelling business.
Of course you can’t have express trains following behind local trains on the same track. You must at least have sidings so express train can pass local. Or no express trains while local is in route.
Northeast corridor line solves this problem with four tracks–two each way. Acela uses center tracks. NJ Transit uses outer tracks.
High speed rail is often economically incompatible with normal rail as the alignments for high speed need to be much straighter and more level, and when you are building tunnels, viaducts, and buying up right of ways it is usually far more economical to go with only two or even only one line.
Of course the local stations have a couple of miles of side tracks so the local trains can stop while the express trains pass by.
It is also possible to schedule the trains so that the express doesn’t catch up to the local train that departed long enough before. This is (I think) how Cal Train from SF to San Jose works.
But one delay ends up cascading to foul up the following express schedule in a bad way.
That works especially well when the two trains (funiculari) are connected by a steel cable! One is essentially pulling the other up (with a little external energy added of course).
The funicular in Naples that goes to Capodimonte was perfectly timed that I could exit my hotel, walk 150m to the bottom station, wait 30-60 seconds for the one going up, ride it, walk down the block to one of the best pizza places in the world, buy a pizza, walk back to the station, wait 30 seconds to go down, walk back to our hotel … and arrive there about a half an hour after I left!
I recall that it take about 100 hp to pull the one car up while the other goes down. I believe the one I rode in Pittsburgh daily had a backup as well, and now that I think about it, I believe it was actually an electric motor of equivalent HP. Carriage fit about 12 comfortably, but on busy mornings we could have 15 or 20 riding all at the same time.
During those icy, wintry mornings it was the only part of the commute I didn’t worry about the slippery roads. I had to walk to it (about 3 blocks) and then catch a bus at the bottom, and then walk to work. Fun times (not.) Would have preferred to drive my car, except: parking downtown.
